Sunday NHL picks

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
Avalanche ML (3.01 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

Excellent value, but I won't force the issue by staking more than 3 units here. The Avs have been hot and cold lately, the only thing you can count on from them night and night out is that they're gonna score some goals, they've been clicking well up front (their powerplay units are ranked 5th in the league) and have scored 5,3,4,4 in their last 4 games, following a 2 goal effort (lost 2-5) in Calgary.

The Avalanche have lost 4 out of their last 5 games but even with these awful streak they still look better than the Ducks at the moment, who are on a slide. If Colorado stays out of penalty box they'll take this one. Their penalty kill has been awful lately and when the situation on the ice isn't even, they find it hard to defend the box, moreover with Peter Budaj in the net who has been erratic of late.
One game he showed up big for was the clash with Anaheim: The Ducks put 39 shots on net, but Budaj stopped them all to lead the Avs to a 2-0 win - his second shutout of 2006-07.
Since Budaj had a lot of games lately, and had different success, Colorado will start Jose Theodore between the pipes, who also managed to snatch a W against the Ducks earlier this season.

This is more of a Ducks fade/value pick than a pick on the Avs, who just squandered a 2 goal lead yesterday against the Kings.
However, since the lockout the Avalanche are 6-0-1 against Anaheim in the regular season. In the playoffs, different story. The Ducks knocked them out 4-0 while allowing only 4 goals in the process, 2 shutouts for Giguere. This is what ignites Colorado over the edge, avenging the embarrassing playoff exit, plus a huge motivation for the Avs not to miss the postseason for the first time since they moved from Quebec.

Having followed Ducks' last 5 games I simply disagree that they're such huge favs against a rather unpredictable team as Colorado, who do allow a ton, but can score a ton as well.
There is a possibility that the Ducks finally end this unpleasant skid, but there's also a chance they come out flat, in that case anything can happen, Theodore is also a big mystery, his performance could be a boost for the visitors, and that's what I'm counting on here.


will add more shortly.

have a good one guys.
:cheers:
 
First of I just have to congratulate Jocelyn Thibault for his 3rd straight win, accomplished with a solid effort against the Panthers, Penguins snatched a W in the OT, the Panthers have a woeful OT record this season anyways, and are a lot different offensively than the Bolts. Much more demanding task for the emotionally drained Penguins tonight.

However, that doesn't deny the fact that these Pens need a break, it's not just Fleury who needs rest, these guys are playing on fumes right now, no team in the league can hold such tempo indefinitely. The Pens are coming off a great run, Thibault (who I don't rate highly at all) has won last 3, and Bolts' coach John Tortorella is furious after a loss to the Bruins, but not towards his team, but himself.

Look for his boys to rebound strong tonight with a win, get closer to the top and continue their everlasting domination over the Penguins (Tampa have won 11 in a row over Pittsburgh). Maximum stakes.

Tampa Bay ML (1.84 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Tampa Bay (-1,5) (3.20 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
 
Love TB today bro, looks like a great spot for them.

Also, going to ride with you small on Colorado.. definetely value there.

GL
 
gonna play a small 1 unit on COL so I have something to watch while Wifey watches the Oscars (borefest)
 
thanks BC :shake: not over yet though, 6 mins remaining. Hopefully they'll keep this 4:1 lead and not allow two goals in the process.
 
Avs managed to tie it up at 3 but got behind soon afterwards and lost 3:5 in the end.

oh well.

11 W - 9 L +18.45 units
 
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