Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Last week this seemed to do all right, so let's post 'em again and hope history can repeat itself.
Jax -2
This almost goes against one of the stands I've taken this year which is pretty simple, it is that the Jags suck. But let's step back for a second. Last year, in the last game of the season, the Jags were still holding onto slim playoff hopes. They went into KC, both teams at 8-7, and sure enough, though they needed some weird s**t to happen, when KC won the game, they went to the playoffs and the Jags went home.
Now, David Garrard gets to exact some revenge. With KC coming off an absolutely huge win, I think the Jags can come in and punch them in the mouth a little bit and steal this thing from 'em.
Jags/KC over 36
This is actually not based on the fact that in that game last year each of these teams damn near covered this number themselves, but that doesn't hurt. I just think this total's too low. I think it should be 38.
Pittsburgh -6
I hate this number, but I like the Steelers. I think they're better than they showed last week and Seattle's worse than they've shown pretty much all year. Yes, Seattle may have a little of that SB revenge thing in the back of their heads, but I think what they're going to get instead is Big Ben having a game much closer to what he should have had in Detroit than what he did. In fact, I think all the talk that the Steelers were given that SB by the refs actually helps Pittsburgh here. Given that, that you have a west coast team traveling east for an early game, and the fact that Alexander's banged up, I think Pittsburgh wins this one. Maybe 20-6 or 24-10/13, something like that.
Detroit +3.5/ML
I don't think Moss is going to play, Portis isn't healthy, the Skins are still down two on their O-line and I think that's where they really feel it this week. No, Detroit's defense isn't all that great, but you pretty much have to double team Shaun Rogers on the nose, so when you do that you're stretching an already thin line even thinner and you're almost certainly either asking a not 100% healthy Portis to stay in and block or you're keeping him on the sidelines so you can protect Jason Campbell.
The Lions get Calvin Johnson back, I don't see them not scoring their customary 23 or so points, so that means I have to see Washington getting to 27 or 30. I don't. And if NY can beat Washington on their home turf, Detroit can, too.
NYJ +3.5/ML
Yeah, this is the play everybody's going to hate. Because the Jets suck, oh they suck so much. They lost to Buffalo. And the Giants are so good. Didn't we all see how good they were vs. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles who just scored 50 points the week before? They're just going to kill the Jets. Just kill 'em. Yeah, maybe. But I'm not sold on it just yet. I think this thing is a FG game. Why? Oh, because that's generally the way things go with Eli and the Giants. They'll play a great game one week and you think, 'Man, Eli's turned the corner, the Giants are going to put it together.' Then he throws a couple of picks the next week and everybody piles back on him again as they drop another game on their way to 8-8. He's not as consistent with his bounces as Jake Delholme, but he's getting there. And just when teams are given up for dead they tend to bite, and the world is pretty much bailing on the Jets.
I may also take a shot on this over.
Tennessee -7/-7.5
I bought it down to seven at Olympic, took the plus money with the hook at MB. Atlanta's not good. Can VY cover a TD? I don't know. I do know Tenny's defense is playing well and, really, I think that should be enough for them to get up on Atlanta and just lean on them if they're smart about it. Especially with two weeks to prepare. Two weeks to prepare--for Atlanta???
Arizona -3
This one scares me a bit because it seems pretty easy, knock on wood, but if you're Arizona you have to win this game. St. Louis is so hurt right now, you have to just sit on them. Sadly I fear this game is closer than it should be, but I do think AZ wins.
***adding*** NYG/NYJ over 40.5
The hook worries me a bit, but I think they can both get to 20 here today, I'll get involved. Go offense.
***adding*** SD/Denver over 43No earthly reason to think these two can combine for 44 based on their performances this year. But I'm going to do it anyway. History, maybe will help here.
The things I might add later are San Diego ML and maaaaaaayyybeee Green Bay.
Good luck tomorrow everyone.
Jax -2
This almost goes against one of the stands I've taken this year which is pretty simple, it is that the Jags suck. But let's step back for a second. Last year, in the last game of the season, the Jags were still holding onto slim playoff hopes. They went into KC, both teams at 8-7, and sure enough, though they needed some weird s**t to happen, when KC won the game, they went to the playoffs and the Jags went home.
Now, David Garrard gets to exact some revenge. With KC coming off an absolutely huge win, I think the Jags can come in and punch them in the mouth a little bit and steal this thing from 'em.
Jags/KC over 36
This is actually not based on the fact that in that game last year each of these teams damn near covered this number themselves, but that doesn't hurt. I just think this total's too low. I think it should be 38.
Pittsburgh -6
I hate this number, but I like the Steelers. I think they're better than they showed last week and Seattle's worse than they've shown pretty much all year. Yes, Seattle may have a little of that SB revenge thing in the back of their heads, but I think what they're going to get instead is Big Ben having a game much closer to what he should have had in Detroit than what he did. In fact, I think all the talk that the Steelers were given that SB by the refs actually helps Pittsburgh here. Given that, that you have a west coast team traveling east for an early game, and the fact that Alexander's banged up, I think Pittsburgh wins this one. Maybe 20-6 or 24-10/13, something like that.
Detroit +3.5/ML
I don't think Moss is going to play, Portis isn't healthy, the Skins are still down two on their O-line and I think that's where they really feel it this week. No, Detroit's defense isn't all that great, but you pretty much have to double team Shaun Rogers on the nose, so when you do that you're stretching an already thin line even thinner and you're almost certainly either asking a not 100% healthy Portis to stay in and block or you're keeping him on the sidelines so you can protect Jason Campbell.
The Lions get Calvin Johnson back, I don't see them not scoring their customary 23 or so points, so that means I have to see Washington getting to 27 or 30. I don't. And if NY can beat Washington on their home turf, Detroit can, too.
NYJ +3.5/ML
Yeah, this is the play everybody's going to hate. Because the Jets suck, oh they suck so much. They lost to Buffalo. And the Giants are so good. Didn't we all see how good they were vs. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles who just scored 50 points the week before? They're just going to kill the Jets. Just kill 'em. Yeah, maybe. But I'm not sold on it just yet. I think this thing is a FG game. Why? Oh, because that's generally the way things go with Eli and the Giants. They'll play a great game one week and you think, 'Man, Eli's turned the corner, the Giants are going to put it together.' Then he throws a couple of picks the next week and everybody piles back on him again as they drop another game on their way to 8-8. He's not as consistent with his bounces as Jake Delholme, but he's getting there. And just when teams are given up for dead they tend to bite, and the world is pretty much bailing on the Jets.
I may also take a shot on this over.
Tennessee -7/-7.5
I bought it down to seven at Olympic, took the plus money with the hook at MB. Atlanta's not good. Can VY cover a TD? I don't know. I do know Tenny's defense is playing well and, really, I think that should be enough for them to get up on Atlanta and just lean on them if they're smart about it. Especially with two weeks to prepare. Two weeks to prepare--for Atlanta???
Arizona -3
This one scares me a bit because it seems pretty easy, knock on wood, but if you're Arizona you have to win this game. St. Louis is so hurt right now, you have to just sit on them. Sadly I fear this game is closer than it should be, but I do think AZ wins.
***adding*** NYG/NYJ over 40.5
The hook worries me a bit, but I think they can both get to 20 here today, I'll get involved. Go offense.
***adding*** SD/Denver over 43No earthly reason to think these two can combine for 44 based on their performances this year. But I'm going to do it anyway. History, maybe will help here.
The things I might add later are San Diego ML and maaaaaaayyybeee Green Bay.
Good luck tomorrow everyone.
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