Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
The lines-makers have a slew of conservative lines in week 1. There are a lot of lines hovering around 3 and NO lines over 7. Since it is week 1, my plan is to tread lightly, and find the undervalued lines. I will take you through the processes I use to find those games. I looked at every game this Sunday, and I have eliminated the games that have even the slightest question marks. Let's start the analysis!
Kansas City @ Houston -3
Nothing intrigues me here. These are 2 bad teams that will struggle to reach 7 wins. Larry Johnson admittedly has stated he isn't fully ready for week 1. Houston's offense has potential this year, but I need to wait and see this team first before betting them. Can Shaub run a successful offense? Does Ahmen Green still have anything left in the tank? Too many question marks here, so it's a no-bet.
Denver Broncos -3 @ Buffalo Bills
At first glance, Denver looks undervalued here. But we don't know too much about this Buffalo team. The offensive line took a major upgrade this year, rookie Marshawn Lynch takes over at RB, and this should be the year JP Losman breaks out if in fact he's a solid player. Lee Evans is a rising star in the league, and Bailey will have his hands full. I like Denver's offense this year with the addition of Travis Henry, but I'm not sold on the defense. DJ Williams takes over at MLB. He played OLB last year. How will the transition be for him? The D-Line is shaky. Injuries have caused Denver to sign Simeon Rice. Rice will start at DE on Sunday, but does he have anything left in his tank? Amon Gordon will start at DT. He has just 6 games of experience, and he has never played a game for Denver. Sam Adams numbers have slowly declined as he is entering his 14th year in the league. Lynch is the kind of big back that can give this Denver D problems. I expect Buffalo to have success on the ground. So, no bet here.
Pittsburgh -4.5 @ Cleveland
I'm playing the Steelers here for 1 unit. Cleveland may finish with the worst record in the NFL this year. Quinn should take over the helm by Week 6 or 7. Charlie Frye is a career backup. And that's the role he will take over on another team. Pittsburgh returns 10 of 11 starters on defense. The loss of Joey Porter is big, but this defense is still one of the best in the AFC. James Harrison replaces Porter in the starting lineup in week 1, but we should see plenty of the 1st round pick Timmons. He can fly, and is a perfect fit in the 3-4. The Pittsburgh offense should have plenty of success this year. Willie Parker is coming off a career year, Big Ben is fully healthy, and the emergence of Santonio Holmes gives the Steelers 3 strong weapons in the passing games: Holmes, Ward, and Miller. Pittsburgh is a legit super-bowl contender this year, and we are getting them at a value line. If this game was played in say, week 7 or 8, the line would be at least 6.5. I'll take the Steelers -4.5 for 1 unit.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7
I'll pass here. Garrard takes over at QB for Jacksonville. The Jags still have no passing options at all. The running attack is strong, but I can't lay 7 with a new QB. Garrard should have a lot of pressure on him in game 1, and he might come out forcing things. The Titans offense is horrible, but they still have Vince Young who can make plays. No bet.
Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams -1
I'm taking the Rams for 1 unit at this short line. I'm high on the Rams this year. They added Drew Bennett and TE McMichael in the offseason. Bennett is banged up but will play. The Rams have a top 3 offense in the NFC, as Stephen Jackson has taken over the title as best RB in the NFC. Bulger is in for a career year, as well. The Rams were shutout in Carolina last year, so expect them to come out fired up for this game. Carolina is on a serious decline. Jake Delhomme will not be the starter for the whole year. He is a statue in the backfield. There is a reason this team felt the need to pick up David Carr. Steve Smith is a great player, but if no one can get him the ball, he can't be effective. The Rams will be focused on the run, and the defense should come out hyped in the opening game of the season at home. They gave up 242 yards on the ground last year vs. Carolina. I'm sure that's still on their minds. I think this line would be around 4.5 in mid-season. I'm playing the Rams -1 for 1 unit.
Philly Eagles -3 @ Green Bay Packers
The Eagles had a poor pre-season defensively. Too many question marks remain on this defense to take them on the road in week 1. Green Bay's defense is strong this year, and that will keep them in a bunch of games. The Eagles will win this game, but probably on a late field goal. It'll be a battle. Not worth a wager.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings -3
I like the Vikings here. And I like them this season. The defense is superb, and the rushing attack will have a lot of success this year. I need to see what Jackson can do through the air though. And I also need to see how Minny will manage the duel back situation. The Vikings should win and cover, but I need to see them first. Nothing here.
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins -3
Any casual NFL fan is aware of the countless question marks of BOTH teams. Nothing here whatsoever!
New England Patriots -6.5 @ NY Jets
The Pats should handle the Jets in week 1. Pennington looked awful in pre-season, and Thomas Jones is a little hurt. The Pats are the consensus super-bowl favorites, but I'm not confident laying this many on the road in the first game of the year. Seymour and Harrison are OUT for NE defense. We don't know Moss's exact status, and Brady has a brand new WR corps to work with. Also, Maroney might have some jitters opening the season as the #1 RB on the road. The Jets are always going to play their asses off, and anything can happen in this bitter rivalry especially behind their home crowd. Nothing here.
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5
I'm higher than most on Tampa Bay this year, and I'm pretty low on Seattle. I think this line is 2 or 3 points too high, and I'm tempted to take the Bucs. The offense will be better. Garcia is a HUGE upgrade at QB. Galloway still has some life left, and is a competent #1 target. Williams was banged up most of last year. This guy is a quality NFL RB. He had a decent rookie season when he was healthy. This is Gruden's last chance with the Bucs. I expect a strong effort in week 1, but the long travel across country is some cause for concern. I'll go ahead and predict a Tampa SU win this week, but I don't have the balls to play them. No bet YET, but that could change by Sunday.
Chicago Bears @ SD Chargers -6
Plain and simple...I don't like this line. It wouldn't surprise me if either team won SU here. It should be a wild game, I'm thinking high scoring. 31-28 either way. Fun game to watch, but too tricky to wager.
Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders -2.5
I laugh every time I see this game and line. Oakland laying points is a joke, but good luck betting on the Lions on the road. No bet even if you paid me.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -6
Forget the line here. I'm playing the OVER 44 for 2 units. I see a shootout on Sunday Night Football in this bitter rivalry. Dallas brings back an offense that put up 26 PPG last year. Terry Glenn won't play, but Pat Crayton is a quality NFL WR, and he provides some more speed over Glenn. The Giants defense is brutal, especially on the road. They haven't added many players from last year. They allowed 24 PPG and over 380 total yards on the road last year! So, we can expect the Dallas offense to have success especially at home. Their defense is really banged up with a few starters either OUT or game-time decisions. The Giants offense put up 26 PPG on the road last year. I always thought Manning played better on the road without the pressure of the home crowd. He can play in this league, he just needs the confidence. The Giants put up 36 points last year in Dallas, and I see something similar in this game with the injury concerns for the Dallas D. This game will be played in the 50's, and the low # is cause to wager 2 units. OVER 44 for 2 units.
Plays for Sunday:
Steelers -4.5 (1 Unit) FINAL: 24-7
Rams -1 (1 Unit) FINAL: 28-20
Giants/Cowboys OVER 44 (2 Units) FINAL: 31-28
Good luck in week 1 everyone! I'll likely miss the entire day's games. Remember not to get too carried away because the first week of the season is very unpredictable. Just take a look at these lines. If the lines-makers are clueless, that's cause to play it safe.
:cheers:
Kansas City @ Houston -3
Nothing intrigues me here. These are 2 bad teams that will struggle to reach 7 wins. Larry Johnson admittedly has stated he isn't fully ready for week 1. Houston's offense has potential this year, but I need to wait and see this team first before betting them. Can Shaub run a successful offense? Does Ahmen Green still have anything left in the tank? Too many question marks here, so it's a no-bet.
Denver Broncos -3 @ Buffalo Bills
At first glance, Denver looks undervalued here. But we don't know too much about this Buffalo team. The offensive line took a major upgrade this year, rookie Marshawn Lynch takes over at RB, and this should be the year JP Losman breaks out if in fact he's a solid player. Lee Evans is a rising star in the league, and Bailey will have his hands full. I like Denver's offense this year with the addition of Travis Henry, but I'm not sold on the defense. DJ Williams takes over at MLB. He played OLB last year. How will the transition be for him? The D-Line is shaky. Injuries have caused Denver to sign Simeon Rice. Rice will start at DE on Sunday, but does he have anything left in his tank? Amon Gordon will start at DT. He has just 6 games of experience, and he has never played a game for Denver. Sam Adams numbers have slowly declined as he is entering his 14th year in the league. Lynch is the kind of big back that can give this Denver D problems. I expect Buffalo to have success on the ground. So, no bet here.
Pittsburgh -4.5 @ Cleveland
I'm playing the Steelers here for 1 unit. Cleveland may finish with the worst record in the NFL this year. Quinn should take over the helm by Week 6 or 7. Charlie Frye is a career backup. And that's the role he will take over on another team. Pittsburgh returns 10 of 11 starters on defense. The loss of Joey Porter is big, but this defense is still one of the best in the AFC. James Harrison replaces Porter in the starting lineup in week 1, but we should see plenty of the 1st round pick Timmons. He can fly, and is a perfect fit in the 3-4. The Pittsburgh offense should have plenty of success this year. Willie Parker is coming off a career year, Big Ben is fully healthy, and the emergence of Santonio Holmes gives the Steelers 3 strong weapons in the passing games: Holmes, Ward, and Miller. Pittsburgh is a legit super-bowl contender this year, and we are getting them at a value line. If this game was played in say, week 7 or 8, the line would be at least 6.5. I'll take the Steelers -4.5 for 1 unit.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7
I'll pass here. Garrard takes over at QB for Jacksonville. The Jags still have no passing options at all. The running attack is strong, but I can't lay 7 with a new QB. Garrard should have a lot of pressure on him in game 1, and he might come out forcing things. The Titans offense is horrible, but they still have Vince Young who can make plays. No bet.
Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams -1
I'm taking the Rams for 1 unit at this short line. I'm high on the Rams this year. They added Drew Bennett and TE McMichael in the offseason. Bennett is banged up but will play. The Rams have a top 3 offense in the NFC, as Stephen Jackson has taken over the title as best RB in the NFC. Bulger is in for a career year, as well. The Rams were shutout in Carolina last year, so expect them to come out fired up for this game. Carolina is on a serious decline. Jake Delhomme will not be the starter for the whole year. He is a statue in the backfield. There is a reason this team felt the need to pick up David Carr. Steve Smith is a great player, but if no one can get him the ball, he can't be effective. The Rams will be focused on the run, and the defense should come out hyped in the opening game of the season at home. They gave up 242 yards on the ground last year vs. Carolina. I'm sure that's still on their minds. I think this line would be around 4.5 in mid-season. I'm playing the Rams -1 for 1 unit.
Philly Eagles -3 @ Green Bay Packers
The Eagles had a poor pre-season defensively. Too many question marks remain on this defense to take them on the road in week 1. Green Bay's defense is strong this year, and that will keep them in a bunch of games. The Eagles will win this game, but probably on a late field goal. It'll be a battle. Not worth a wager.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings -3
I like the Vikings here. And I like them this season. The defense is superb, and the rushing attack will have a lot of success this year. I need to see what Jackson can do through the air though. And I also need to see how Minny will manage the duel back situation. The Vikings should win and cover, but I need to see them first. Nothing here.
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins -3
Any casual NFL fan is aware of the countless question marks of BOTH teams. Nothing here whatsoever!
New England Patriots -6.5 @ NY Jets
The Pats should handle the Jets in week 1. Pennington looked awful in pre-season, and Thomas Jones is a little hurt. The Pats are the consensus super-bowl favorites, but I'm not confident laying this many on the road in the first game of the year. Seymour and Harrison are OUT for NE defense. We don't know Moss's exact status, and Brady has a brand new WR corps to work with. Also, Maroney might have some jitters opening the season as the #1 RB on the road. The Jets are always going to play their asses off, and anything can happen in this bitter rivalry especially behind their home crowd. Nothing here.
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5
I'm higher than most on Tampa Bay this year, and I'm pretty low on Seattle. I think this line is 2 or 3 points too high, and I'm tempted to take the Bucs. The offense will be better. Garcia is a HUGE upgrade at QB. Galloway still has some life left, and is a competent #1 target. Williams was banged up most of last year. This guy is a quality NFL RB. He had a decent rookie season when he was healthy. This is Gruden's last chance with the Bucs. I expect a strong effort in week 1, but the long travel across country is some cause for concern. I'll go ahead and predict a Tampa SU win this week, but I don't have the balls to play them. No bet YET, but that could change by Sunday.
Chicago Bears @ SD Chargers -6
Plain and simple...I don't like this line. It wouldn't surprise me if either team won SU here. It should be a wild game, I'm thinking high scoring. 31-28 either way. Fun game to watch, but too tricky to wager.
Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders -2.5
I laugh every time I see this game and line. Oakland laying points is a joke, but good luck betting on the Lions on the road. No bet even if you paid me.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -6
Forget the line here. I'm playing the OVER 44 for 2 units. I see a shootout on Sunday Night Football in this bitter rivalry. Dallas brings back an offense that put up 26 PPG last year. Terry Glenn won't play, but Pat Crayton is a quality NFL WR, and he provides some more speed over Glenn. The Giants defense is brutal, especially on the road. They haven't added many players from last year. They allowed 24 PPG and over 380 total yards on the road last year! So, we can expect the Dallas offense to have success especially at home. Their defense is really banged up with a few starters either OUT or game-time decisions. The Giants offense put up 26 PPG on the road last year. I always thought Manning played better on the road without the pressure of the home crowd. He can play in this league, he just needs the confidence. The Giants put up 36 points last year in Dallas, and I see something similar in this game with the injury concerns for the Dallas D. This game will be played in the 50's, and the low # is cause to wager 2 units. OVER 44 for 2 units.
Plays for Sunday:
Steelers -4.5 (1 Unit) FINAL: 24-7
Rams -1 (1 Unit) FINAL: 28-20
Giants/Cowboys OVER 44 (2 Units) FINAL: 31-28
Good luck in week 1 everyone! I'll likely miss the entire day's games. Remember not to get too carried away because the first week of the season is very unpredictable. Just take a look at these lines. If the lines-makers are clueless, that's cause to play it safe.
:cheers:
