Sunday NFL from Vegas

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 posted on CTG

23-19, +6750

_________________________________________________

Yes, I lived through the nite.:shake:

Great week in NFL two weeks ago but last week was forgettable..

Seeing things pretty good in all sports so see what we can do today..

Nothing locked in yet, but here is what I am looking at..

Will post them as I lock them. All plays at the Wynn.

Plays: (brief thoughts, screen #6 below)

Minny +3, +100; 4 units LOSS
Dallas over 44, -110; 4 units WYNN
Jets -3, -120; 4 units LOSS

Tease Giants pk , Hous pk , TB pk, -120 ; 2 units WYNN

adds:

Brown +3.5 2h, +105, 3 units WYNN
Sea +6 2h, +100, 3 units WYNN

Leans: (in no particular order)

Cowboys over (Played)
Minny (played)
Carolina
SF
Jets (played)
Indy


Also, by the looks of the card I am predicting the books get alot of teaser action today. I may join in as several jump off the page.
 
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Like the Carolina play. Wish I didn't agree with you on the Vikings play, and disagree with the Colts.

Colts in a tough spot being outdoors on a cold and windy day.
 
GL Tee . Great performance yesterday ..

I think Dal offense will be fine minus Felix Jones but there is a ton of defensive injuries in this game. WHo is playing corner for STL??? Pace is hurt on the OL listed as highly questionable . Bulger even has a finger issue . Roy Williams should be back for DAL good since Newman and PacMan are out (I knowhe cantcover anyone but his replacement was also out).

Past 2 games STL has lost Ricky Manning and Tye hill .....was thinking DAL TT over not sure what STL will contribute ...

Like Car , Dal and Houston Teaser ...

:cheers:On Car , lean SF but was lookng the other way on the others but unsure..
 
I like Carolina today. Seems too many are writing them off b/c of one bad game. I think NO will draw a lot of attention b/c offensive weapons are returning, strong trend favoring road team lately in this series and the poor performance at Tampa still fresh in everyone's minds. I think they win by 10-14 pts. Just think NO is too weak on defense and special teams to hang for 4 quarters on the road. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on SF today? Seems like a real bad spot for them having to travel East and play a pissed off NYG team who knows they have to win to keep pace in the tough NFC East.
 
Locked in:

Minny +3, +100; 4 units
Dallas over 44, -110; 4 units
Jets -3, -120; 4 units

Tease Giants pk, Hous pk, TB pk, -120 ; 2 units


Not going to have time for a real detailed write-up guys but some real quick thoughts:

Dallas/Stl over

Defensive injuries all over the place. Cowboys will give it up today and so will the Rams.. Rams only 3 offensive Td's last 5 games keeps this number in range. Don't be fooled by that stat. Look for Donnie Avery to get single coverage oppo Holt and to have a a big day.. See a track meet with all the D-back troubles on both sides..Rams starting a CB they cut 3 weeks ago.

Vikes

Love it, may add.. See some respected guys also on it.. Bears have D-back probs also and this will be an ugly affair in which 3 points will be valuable.. Vikes defense is impressive and I'll take the team with a RB named Peterson.

Jets

Favre erratic on the road but think he corrects that here vs a team that is a joke, really. Raiders at home are 0-2 losing by avg of 18.. Jets by 10 is what I have. I'll roll with it.

Probably be some adds later.. I'll try to get them posted timely.

I'll be around a bit if anyone has anything they want to run by me.
 
Knew you'd be on the Vikes, I'm liking that one +3 and +165 ML. Nice day yesterday. Middle Tenny gave up down the stretch but 3-1 overall with Nevada, Kansas, and took Mizzou 2nd Half PK (terrible line).

Rollin the Vikes with ya and thinking about Miami and KC. :shake:
 
Gl today TD. Solid day yesterday. I hope yall are having fun in Vegas. I never been and would love to make a trip when I have time.Have fun buddy.
 
As a Vikes fan I couldn't back them on the road getting such a short line. I haven't looked into it much but scientifically speaking, they suck. I won't pretend I came up with the following info, it came from a dude who sends me e-mails with plays every week. CHI -3 was a play & here's what he wrote, hope you find it useful.

Chi -3

  • In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 14 points and failed to cover by an avg of 11 points. They have not won ATS or SU in their last 10 contests.
  • Chicago lost both games SU to Minnesoata last season.
  • Divisional teams who lost both games to the previous opponent the season before and are now favored in the first matchup of the season are 56-37 ATS as long as the line is 2 or more points and the game is held within the first 9 weeks of the season.
  • So far in 2008, this trend has gone 4-0, although the past 3 years it has gone 5-3-2, 5-3, and 5-2 ATS, so it is not a machine of a trend.
  • In fact, since 2001, if the team is at home and the line is 3+, the home team is 15-7 ATS and 22-2 SU.
  • Also, in games involving the NFC North (Bears/Packers/Vikings/Lions even prior to the NFC North) that are non MNF, this trend is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 1991, including a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since 1994.
  • Chicago is 3-0 ATS and SU in this trend, including their game against Detroit earlier this season.
  • Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 8-4 ATS and 9-3 SU at home following a SU loss. In fact, since 2005 they are 6-2 ATS, one loss being a SU win but an ATS loss to KC as 12 point favorites, winning only by 10. The other was week 3 of this season vs. TB, where TB scored a TD to send the game to OT in the closing seconds and then won SU in OT.
  • If playing a divisional team at home following a loss, Chicago is 5-0 SU and ATS. The majority of these games were not close at all. Chicago won three of those games by 20+ and two by 10. Included in there are 3 games against Minnesota, in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
  • When facing the Vikings at home following a loss under Smith, the Bears are 3-0 SU and ATS, on average putting up 25 and allowing 10.
  • Since 2003, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS and SU after a win in which they did not cover, including 0-2 the past two seasons and 0-2 as underdogs since 2003.
  • Since 2000, Minnesota is 0-4 ATS and SU on the road after a win in which they did not cover. The average line was 5 points and Minnesota lost by an average of 20 points, failing to cover by 15.
  • Teams who faced Atlanta last week are 4-1 ATS in 2008.
  • Teams who faced Atlanta last week and are favored are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 2007
  • Teams who faced Detroit last week are 0-4 ATS in 2008.
The things that concerns me here is Chicago's injured secondary (several corners are questionable, which ones will be ruled out?) and

  • Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU prior to its bye week, the one victory being the 1 point come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Arizona in 2006. In fact, taking it back to division realignment in 2002, Chicago is 0-6 ATS the week prior to its bye, and 1-5 SU.
Can a team be consistently bad prior to a bye? Since 2002, no team is worse than Chicago's 0-6, which is obvious, but the next closest teams are Bal, Det and Phi, who all sit at 2-5 ATS, but both Bal and Phi were 1-5 ATS prior to this season and both won prior to their bye this season. On any given week any team can cover, but it is alarming that Chi has not done it prior to their bye since 2002. Still, the system likes Chi, my research (aside from this one trend) points to Chi, and I think Chi can get the cover here.
 
Barty said:
Are you around for 2H bets today Tee?
Click to expand...

I'll attempt it on my phone but it will be tight.. Had several HT plays yesterday I just couldn't get in..incl. big win on Mizzu 2H pk... If I see something real good, I'll try to post it:shake: GL today bro
 
Zeke said:
As a Vikes fan I couldn't back them on the road getting such a short line. I haven't looked into it much but scientifically speaking, they suck. I won't pretend I came up with the following info, it came from a dude who sends me e-mails with plays every week. CHI -3 was a play & here's what he wrote, hope you find it useful.

Chi -3

  • In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 14 points and failed to cover by an avg of 11 points. They have not won ATS or SU in their last 10 contests.
  • Chicago lost both games SU to Minnesoata last season.
  • Divisional teams who lost both games to the previous opponent the season before and are now favored in the first matchup of the season are 56-37 ATS as long as the line is 2 or more points and the game is held within the first 9 weeks of the season.
  • So far in 2008, this trend has gone 4-0, although the past 3 years it has gone 5-3-2, 5-3, and 5-2 ATS, so it is not a machine of a trend.
  • In fact, since 2001, if the team is at home and the line is 3+, the home team is 15-7 ATS and 22-2 SU.
  • Also, in games involving the NFC North (Bears/Packers/Vikings/Lions even prior to the NFC North) that are non MNF, this trend is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 1991, including a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since 1994.
  • Chicago is 3-0 ATS and SU in this trend, including their game against Detroit earlier this season.
  • Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 8-4 ATS and 9-3 SU at home following a SU loss. In fact, since 2005 they are 6-2 ATS, one loss being a SU win but an ATS loss to KC as 12 point favorites, winning only by 10. The other was week 3 of this season vs. TB, where TB scored a TD to send the game to OT in the closing seconds and then won SU in OT.
  • If playing a divisional team at home following a loss, Chicago is 5-0 SU and ATS. The majority of these games were not close at all. Chicago won three of those games by 20+ and two by 10. Included in there are 3 games against Minnesota, in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
  • When facing the Vikings at home following a loss under Smith, the Bears are 3-0 SU and ATS, on average putting up 25 and allowing 10.
  • Since 2003, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS and SU after a win in which they did not cover, including 0-2 the past two seasons and 0-2 as underdogs since 2003.
  • Since 2000, Minnesota is 0-4 ATS and SU on the road after a win in which they did not cover. The average line was 5 points and Minnesota lost by an average of 20 points, failing to cover by 15.
  • Teams who faced Atlanta last week are 4-1 ATS in 2008.
  • Teams who faced Atlanta last week and are favored are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 2007
  • Teams who faced Detroit last week are 0-4 ATS in 2008.
The things that concerns me here is Chicago's injured secondary (several corners are questionable, which ones will be ruled out?) and

  • Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU prior to its bye week, the one victory being the 1 point come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Arizona in 2006. In fact, taking it back to division realignment in 2002, Chicago is 0-6 ATS the week prior to its bye, and 1-5 SU.
Can a team be consistently bad prior to a bye? Since 2002, no team is worse than Chicago's 0-6, which is obvious, but the next closest teams are Bal, Det and Phi, who all sit at 2-5 ATS, but both Bal and Phi were 1-5 ATS prior to this season and both won prior to their bye this season. On any given week any team can cover, but it is alarming that Chi has not done it prior to their bye since 2002. Still, the system likes Chi, my research (aside from this one trend) points to Chi, and I think Chi can get the cover here.
Click to expand...

Thanks Zeke.. No disrespect meant but the tout who sent you that write-up makes many points that have nothing to do with todays game.. lots of guys follow that stuff-- I do not... Hope your Vikes win today.:shake:. Big game from divisional standpoint.

To stop peterson they are going to have to stack the box leaving some very green corners exposed. Don't think they will do that and Peterson gets 100+ and the Vikes defense does the job.. Just my opinion..
 
BOL today T, looks like we will be on the same side in a few of them today. Peace. :popcorn:
 
RambleOn said:
Knew you'd be on the Vikes, I'm liking that one +3 and +165 ML. Nice day yesterday. Middle Tenny gave up down the stretch but 3-1 overall with Nevada, Kansas, and took Mizzou 2nd Half PK (terrible line).

Rollin the Vikes with ya and thinking about Miami and KC. :shake:
Click to expand...

GL today bro.. Got me some of that Mizzou 2H at pk also.. Also hit AF 1H but those HT plays almost impossible to post out here.. Glad you had a good one.:cheers:
 
nawlins51 said:
Gl today TD. Solid day yesterday. I hope yall are having fun in Vegas. I never been and would love to make a trip when I have time.Have fun buddy.
Click to expand...

Thanks Naw.. Best time is the super Bowl IMO if you can ever make it then.. Anytime on a sports weekend is eventful though.. Helps when you are winning too;)
 
Regarding the DB the Rams cut and resigned. It was a move Linehan made and it was questionable. I felt Fakhir Brown was their best corner who was let go because he was a Hasslet guy. I do see the Rams secondary having a long day if Brad Johnson can get them the ball. I just don't know how good Johnson is going to be. Lots of unknowns in this game.
 
wiseplayer said:
Regarding the DB the Rams cut and resigned. It was a move Linehan made and it was questionable. I felt Fakhir Brown was their best corner who was let go because he was a Hasslet guy. I do see the Rams secondary having a long day if Brad Johnson can get them the ball. I just don't know how good Johnson is going to be. Lots of unknowns in this game.
Click to expand...

Thanks wise..Ya, saw that article.. Sounds like the communication at Rams park during the Linehan era was a bit flawed.. See Haslet is kind of throwing linehan under the bus now esp. with the Fakhir situation.

Being the best corner on the Rams means you wouldn't make the roster on most teams..:36_11_6:

Not playing the Rams today but I would not be at all surprised to see a SU win.. Donnie Avery is Holt 7 years ago but faster.. Love the guy.

Thanks for stopping in bro.. You guys wish you had Kurt Warner back?
 
TheSportsThing said:
Love that Teaser Tee, on it myself. GL today and Have fun in Vegas :cheers:
Click to expand...

Which team fucks it up? one always does it seems... Considered swapping Tenn for Giants but decided to stick with all home teams.. I don't endorse teasers but I play a dozen or so a year and in the past have done decent although last year was not good. GL today:cheers:
 
When we let Kurt go he was as bad as Bulger looks now. He was too beat up and I think it took him a few years to get his body right. GL today!
 
Tee the Bears viking line of -3 is simple.

When they put the cheap 3 at home, what they are saying is these teams are basically even and we have no idea who will win the game. They favour the home team by the cheap -3 points--- Essentially in this spot the road team vikings has just a good chance to win the game outright and is given 3 free points--

Ex is proven by all the road winners on this line this year--- Home field is the most overrated thing in a bettors mind in NFL-

Bears have lost at home this year, Vikes have won on road and lost at home, there is very few teams that have a true true home field advantage anymore--

Top teams in the league can win at home because they are good anyway- but look at other Vikes, Orleans, Indy, Jax, Denver, eagles, skins, Colts, all have losses at home- so when divisional teams play and the line is a cheap 3, the real line should be PICK, but because of home field it makes the home team -3, which is wrong IMO, because athletes are athletesa and a football field is a football field-- Giants last year playoff run, so many road wins-
 
tee*dub said:
Which team fucks it up? one always does it seems... Considered swapping Tenn for Giants but decided to stick with all home teams.. I don't endorse teasers but I play a dozen or so a year and in the past have done decent although last year was not good. GL today:cheers:
Click to expand...

I think Giants are solid Tee. I have some issues with beleive Houston might screw it up, plus Detroit is still winless but we shall see.
 
Couple days ago I was telling someone in my fantasy league that Donnie Avery could have a real big week for me on Sunday . Started him as my flex in a deep 12 team league . Then you commented on it and I knew we discussed him earlier in the year took all of 1 possession for him to catch a 42yd TD ..great insight as always ...
 
Which BTW I picked up him as FA after that initial chat . So Thanks for that as well . Cant remember what week but he was still hurt at the time and hadnt debuted yet .
 
tee*dub said:
Thanks Zeke.. No disrespect meant but the tout who sent you that write-up makes many points that have nothing to do with todays game.. lots of guys follow that stuff-- I do not... Hope your Vikes win today.:shake:. Big game from divisional standpoint.

To stop peterson they are going to have to stack the box leaving some very green corners exposed. Don't think they will do that and Peterson gets 100+ and the Vikes defense does the job.. Just my opinion..
Click to expand...

I didn't play this, hate to go against my team but they already fucked my under, teased it for an additional 9 to boot! Thinking the defenses forgot to show today. Let's hope they win for the both of us.
 
Zeke said:
I didn't play this, hate to go against my team but they already fucked my under, teased it for an additional 9 to boot! Thinking the defenses forgot to show today. Let's hope they win for the both of us.
Click to expand...

Vikings 2 1st half special teams gaffes set the wrong tempo for this one.. Can't cap that..:hang:
 
SportsNut said:
Couple days ago I was telling someone in my fantasy league that Donnie Avery could have a real big week for me on Sunday . Started him as my flex in a deep 12 team league . Then you commented on it and I knew we discussed him earlier in the year took all of 1 possession for him to catch a 42yd TD ..great insight as always ...
Click to expand...

Had one called back also. Wish he would have got that one for you.. He changes the Rams because he can go vertical and talks the safety away from Holt.
 
tee dub,

whatcha think about the over in the colts/gb game? I'm envisioning a shootout but might be overlooking something. Thx.
 
picks4cash said:
tee dub,

whatcha think about the over in the colts/gb game? I'm envisioning a shootout but might be overlooking something. Thx.
Click to expand...

not playing it but couldn't agrue too much against it.. Only concern would be if the Pack try to protect Rodgers shoulder a bit by emphasizing the running game.. particulary if they get a lead..gl
 
Thought Dallas might contribute to that over.. Amazing they can only put up 7 against that defense..:hang:
 
Nice work! I coattailed you on the Rams Over. Check this out, I even picked up Avery for my fantasy team and he hooked it up for a TD. Too bad the other TD got called back. If Bulger can stay off his ass, everyone will soon find out about Donnie Avery. Rams are officially a dangerous team now. Hasslet has done a great job on both sides. Linehan has to be sick to his stomach. lol
 
Any thoughts on game 7 tonight?????
You have certainly seen things clearly through the playoffs there.....
 
Big Wave said:
Any thoughts on game 7 tonight?????
You have certainly seen things clearly through the playoffs there.....
Click to expand...

Play over in the MLB forum if anyone is interested. Just got back to my computer. Sorry for the late post.

Nothing on NFL tonight..
 
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