Sunday NBA: Dallas @ Detroit

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I want to start talking about this game now. I have been waiting for this matchup for almost a week now. It presents everything I look for in situational handicapping. It presents other factors of handicapping I love as well.

This is the NBA. They schedule like assholes sometimes. You have a Detroit team that just concluded a 5 game west coast swing 20 minutes ago(as I type this) and will have them travel cross-country and play a game a mere 38 hours later. Thats scheduling for you. They want to get a good TV matchup. This game deserves so much more as it is a matchup of the two best teams in each conference(currently).

So, thats your situational handicap right there. How would anyone bet on Detroit with little to no rest trying to adjust back to EST? Teams have a tough enough time with a full 2 days. This situation is much worse. Conversely Dallas hasn't been socked with a lot of games in a short period. They played @ home tonight and travel across just one time zone.

The first matchup in Dallas was a game Detroit dominated. This was early in the year when Detroit was still trying to find themselves. Dallas had gotten over that terrible star and was playing much better ball. Detroit used great defense and timely shooting to stymie the Mavericks. Funny, thats a lot like what they did to Phoenix tonight. The Mavs have a double revenge situation going here.

A perfect scenario was to have Dallas lose to Boston and Detroit beat Phoenix. Sure enough, Detroit got their end done but I am happy at least Dallas played somewhat poorly. It shows that they are in a mini-slump. Detroit on the other hand should have high value going in. Basically, the set line should give us good value on Dallas.

Now, the problem that occured tonight. Billups got hurt right before half. This hurts. I doubt he will play. He has a history of leg problems and does not heal fast whatsoever. I just hope Vegas doesn't move the line too much.

So...let the discussion begin...

I feel a big play on Dallas is warranted. Tomorrow's news about Chauncey will help us determine things a bit more..

I will respond back to any questions or thoughts threoughout the next two days.
 
redbearde said:
what would be an unacceptable Dallas chalk number to swallow?
Click to expand...

I am kind of debating that right now.

I believe the line in Dallas was Mavs 7-8. Detroit is much better on both ends and I think the Mavs are as well. My guess is that a game there now would be Mavs -5.5 to 6. That would warrant a PK @ Detroit with two healthy squads. Going into this week I was hoping for Dallas -3 or so...Detroit of course played up a storm which helps things. I will go over some stuff in my head and kinda set some paramters soon.
 
So, let's think about this.

They fly home tonight. Phoenix to Detroit is, four-ish hours. Figure they leave pretty soon here, so they'll get in at like five, six in the morning local time.

Sleep until middle of the day, tough to see them practicing at all tomorrow. Hang out with the family, try to go to bed at a normal time tomorrow night. Yeah, this sucks for them.

Problem is, what's the line going to be and--moreover, does Dallas want to make any kind of a statement or could they really care less?

I'd obviously prefer a Dallas ML, but I don't think that'll happen. Maybe -4, but to ask Dallas to win by 10 on the road when you know the Pistons fans will be in full force gets a little tough.
 
B.A.R. said:
I won't personally reccoend any of my plays. I will consult on others play and try and help make a informed decision
Click to expand...


That sounds excellent my friend. Congrats on being the MDF NBA representative, I know your looking forward to it.

:shake:
 
fuck that Detriot-Dallas matchup watch that kobe 4th quarter and OT
 
B.A.R. said:
I am kind of debating that right now.

I believe the line in Dallas was Mavs 7-8. Detroit is much better on both ends and I think the Mavs are as well. My guess is that a game there now would be Mavs -5.5 to 6. That would warrant a PK @ Detroit with two healthy squads. Going into this week I was hoping for Dallas -3 or so...Detroit of course played up a storm which helps things. I will go over some stuff in my head and kinda set some paramters soon.
Click to expand...

Closed at pinny at -7, but there's no way in hell we get a pick.

-2.5? Without Billups -4?

I suck at line prognostication...what I think is never what they actually do. But I'll tell you this - if we see short chalk like this, I'll very likely be on it.

Hunter still won't be back, and while Flip played well tonight, Dallas is a much deeper team than Phoenix, and I don't think for a MOMENT that Detroit will outrebound Dallas with the ease they outrebounded Phoenix.

Nor will the Mavs tolerate 53.6% shooting. ...and 57% from 3pt range? forget it.

Nor do I think they'll manage anything close to that kind of shooting so early in the day after all that travel. I think you're absolutely right, here.

wtf was with Detroit's foul shooting tonight? 7 of 15...? that's like shaq was on the roster...

'an_horse'
 
Red...gimme 2.5 or 4 all day long..Imma on it.

Detroit shot 50 percent for the ENTIRE road trip..pretty amazing.

FT shooting. Those misses were Dice and Webber.
 
Well, I love setting lines and I'm normally not bad at it. That said, the NBA isn't my thing.

But as I think about it, we might want a -4.5 here. The only bit of value Detroit is going to have is being at home. So if they hang a -2 out there for Dallas, I gotta think you're going to get a lot of Dallas money.

And the truth is, by this point, people want to bet Dallas no matter what the number is. So I might very well put this at -4 because of the Billups thing--that would be my PR rationale, not that anybody would ask. But the reality is, I'd want Detroit money because in all likelihood, Dallas should win this game by 10 points.
 
Yeah, again, I only know so much, but I'd say six would be too high. At that point I think you might scare off Dallas folk. Four or five feels right to me.
 
To get a fair %, i see Vegas opening it at 4, but without Billups availablility who knows??? Man Vegas always screws me in these tight, high watched tv games. Id rather bet shit games a la Atlanta Boston.lol
 
Coppsguy said:
To get a fair %, i see Vegas opening it at 4, but without Billups availablility who knows??? Man Vegas always screws me in these tight, high watched tv games. Id rather bet shit games a la Atlanta Boston.lol
Click to expand...

or any game involving Milwaukee
 
Okay, I'm confused. Why would a lower number scare you off dallas?

I cant speak for Joe, but the lower the number means the more public plays it. For me i ALWAYS want to be against the public. Does it always win, No, but thats me.
 
Red, I'm big into the psychology of lines. SportsNut and I go back and forth on this all the time because I sort of attack lines a different way than he does.

I tend to come at it from the angle of the linesmaker, why did they set it where they set it, what are they trying to get out of it. Then I move to the teams and the spot, etc.

In this case, if the line opens at say -2.5 with Billups definitely out, it suggests two things to me. One, they want Dallas money. Two, they're keeping the Detroit ML plus-money low so they don't get burned if the home team holds serve in their own building.

Because, in all honesty--and realize I'm a tad out of my depth here because we're talking about basketball, however--Dallas is obviously the better team in the better spot.

With a game on national TV, with the accepted inferior team (in this particular contest) missing a key part of their team, without a lot of rest, if I put out anything at -3 or less, even if it's on the road, I'm asking for Dallas money. No reason to do that seeing as how the stars all align for them. And, as a bonus, I get to give out the Detroit ML nice and low which allows me some damage control if Dallas doesn't cover the low line.

Since it's national TV you're going to get public bettors playing it simply because it's on TV, and because it's the Mavs you're going to get people playing them just because of their record. So why make it easy for them? If they're going to bet it at -2 they're going to bet it at -4, maybe with a tiny bit more hesitation, but that's what you want. You want them hesitating on a team like the Mavs because the Mavs lose so rarely.

That's why a -2.5 or -3 would make me worry. Doesn't mean it would guarantee a Pistons victory or anything, but I wouldn't like it.

But you put this at -4.5 or -5.5 and then you start crossing the psychological threshold.
 
Joe P, I will simply say I understand the words I am reading, but I totally just don't get why it would be better to have a 2 to 3 pt worse line. I suppose I'm too much of a bludgeon in my thinking.

:shake:
 
it's 8am. Still no line.

well, someone at matchbook offered Dallas +111 for 9$.

I took that action....
 
Excellent analysis, Joe Public.

Makes no math sense, but yes......lower the line, the more Vegas wants you on Dallas, and that would be "fishy."

With a line like 4, Vegas really doesn't want the public peeps piling on Cuban, and they succeeded in scaring me. :(
 
Billups left Fridays (3/16) game against the Suns during the second quarter and did not return. The AP reported that Billups suffered a strained left groin. After the game Billups said, "Its been coming on for about two weeks. Ive been feeling it. Finally it just went a little bit, but I know its not too bad because I can walk right now. Ill be all right."
 
<table class="wire" id="dgrdWire" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="date">03/18/07
12:10 PM</td><td class="title"> Info Alert NBA </td><td class="text">Pistons Chauncey Billups "hasn't ruled out" playing today through his groin injury, but it sounds like he's a long shot to play.</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
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