Sunday MLB (8/26) - Last Day of Baseball?

[reNew Orleans]

April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 79-69-2 +25.298 Units
July: 26-22-3 -1.75 Units (Pre All-Star)
July: 55-58-5 +4.118 Units (Post All-Star)
Pre All-Star: 70.572 Units
All-Star Game: 0-1 -2 Units

August: 77-74-1 +26.51 Units
Post All-Star: 132-134-6 +31.128 Units

Overall: 423-388-15 +97.640 Units
Sides: 237-230 +49.838 Units
Run Lines: 36-66 -16.069 Units
Totals: 166-99-14 +63.871 Units

5-3 +4.90 Units yesterday. If today goes as planned today should be my last day of bases. Hoping to take some time off before football season.


Plays:

Cleveland Indians -133 (Carmona v. Meche) (3 Units)
Cleveland Indians RL +119
I'm not a fan of road juice but I think I've been too hesitant to play favs over the course of the past couple of months. Here's the gist of it:

Carmond day/away splits:
Day - 10 games (8-1), 70.2 IP, 1.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .231 BA - everyone knows about this by now.
Away - 12 games (6-4), 82 IP, 2.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .254 BA
- his WHIP and Opp BA are actually better at home but less HRs allowed on the road in, about 1 per 20.5 IP compared to 1 per 9.52 IP @ home.

Meche's #'s aren't great vs the Indians
10 games (2-6), 5.83 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .313 BA

Granted the current team hasn't seen all too much of him, some with a lack of success, there are some hitters who have hit him well.

Blake 6/18 .333, .429 OBP, 7 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K
Martinez 6/18 .333, 7 RBI, 0 BB, 3 K
Nixon 7/13 3 XBH, 1 BB, 1 K
Peralta 6/10 2 BB, 3 K

Barett 0-7 for home dogs on the year, 0-2 for home dogs of +111 to +130.


Minnesota Twins +168 (Baker v. Bedard)
Bedard has been pitching great, sure, I am pretty hesitant about betting this game but I can't ignore the fact that Bedard is 0-4 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and .336 BA vs the Twins.


St. Louis Cardinals -149 (Wainwright v. Reyes) (3 Units)
St. Louis Cardinals RL +142 (1.5 Units) *TYPO - had +119 instead of +142, just misread and copied the CLE RL price*
Not a fan of laying chalk chalk like this but the Bravos have still yet to win a game with Jo Jo Reyes and Reyes has been awful on the road this year pitching 9.2 innings in 3 road games with a 15.83 ERA, 2.59 WHIP, and .390 BA. That's just amazing how high those #'s are. Reyes did pitch 5.1 innings giving up only 1 ER to the Cards earlier but I think this will be a completely different story. Wainwright has been pitching as well as anyone since the beginning of July, with the exception of one game vs the Cubbies back when they were on a tear. Cards have been hammering lefties and I believe they were 2-9 vs LHP @ home and now stand at 9-10 vs LHP @ home. They are hitting .331 vs LHP in their last 10, with an OBP of .386. Also just look at the last 3 games for each pitcher.

Reyes (0-0, lost all 3) 9.2 IP, 15 Hits, 10 BB, 5 HRs, 14.90 ERA. 2.59 WHIP
Wainwright (1-1, won 2 of 3) 22 IP, 17 Hits, 6 BB, 2 HRs, 20 Ks, 1.64 ERA, 1.05 WHIP


BOL To Yall Sunday :cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

yeah, meche is in a tailspin. really like that play, as well as the cards.
tough to go against bedard though. but mabye the o's pen will be the twinkies salvation.

 

[Master P]

good luck renew :cheers:

 

[tuck321]

If you extend with Barret looking at the previous 2 years, he was 8-5 and 8-6 with home dogs. Meche has been somewhat better with 5 days rest this season and if I saw it correctly the last 12 times KC has lost and then played at home they are 9-3. I did not play KC. I simply passed on a side and played it under going with a mutual trend of both teams favoring under in Sunday day games. GL

 

[Troutman]

That Bet againast the braves is sure money, REYES blows and the braves are done theydropped 3 of 4 to the fuckin reds....Hopefully Mike Hampton plays next year or we can release him and get a new starter....Bobby gonna let Reyes stay in until he piles up about 5 or 6 runs....GOD DAMN BRAVES

 

[STEED]

gl bro, on these w /ya

 

[Blue_Chip]

solid analysis, nola, not sure if i am playing today or not... but i'm looking at the cubs, brewers, and dodgers... what are your thoughts?

GL bud

 

[xpression syst_m]

If you extend with Barret looking at the previous 2 years, he was 8-5 and 8-6 with home dogs. Meche has been somewhat better with 5 days rest this season and if I saw it correctly the last 12 times KC has lost and then played at home they are 9-3. I did not play KC. I simply passed on a side and played it under going with a mutual trend of both teams favoring under in Sunday day games. GL

The last 8 times Carmona has taken the hill with the o/u set at 8.5, it's gone under. Only negative I have with the under is Meche's lack of success against some of the key Indians batters. GL.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Good to see you agree with the larger plays today Yanks. Tough to predict how Meche will pitch but Carmona has been more solid.

thanks Master P - BOL to you today

thanks for sharing that information tuck - those are some pretty significant #'s, and the win after a loss situation is a concern now that I see it. Your under looks like it should cash, good trends that way.

lol sorry trout - bravos just never seem to have everything together huh... there's still a chance to make the postseason for you bro

thanks steed - lets cash these plays today

thanks blue_chip - no point in rushing any plays if you don't like the card but I posted my thoughts on the cards game above. Brewers you have to think they have value but I just dont trust them on the road. Bush does pitch better during the Day/Lincecum worse during the day and if I had to bet I'd take the Brewers, just think the value is there. Dodgers you certainly have the #'s from Wells to back you up vs the Mets, tough to trust him right now after his last few starts with the Pads.

thanks xp - good bit of info, GL today.

 

[chips t]

Nice play on garza last night! With ya on the Tribe today. Good luck

 

[JPicks]

Cheering for the Indians here in the 11th so you can get some much deserved time off. If today is your last day then congrats on a great season. Very solid +100 units for the Summer.

 

[JPicks]

Nothing like finishing with a bang. +10 units and undefeated for the final day. Nice work again.

 

[reNew Orleans]

my STL RL bet was actually +142, sorry for the typo, just typed the same RL as the Indians game

thanks chips - good job on cashing in the cle game, took some luck but a W is a W

thanks JPicks - appreciate the support, it's been a long 5 months but I am glad to get done with baseball, too much of a grind to be betting the amount of games I did bet. I will make some adjustments for next year and hope to improve upon my 1st year of MLB. it was definitely a great way to end the year.

5-0 +11 Units on my last day :smiley_acbe:

 

[reNew Orleans]

April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 79-69-2 +25.298 Units
July: 26-22-3 -1.75 Units (Pre All-Star)
July: 55-58-5 +4.118 Units (Post All-Star)
Pre All-Star: 70.572 Units
All-Star Game: 0-1 -2 UnitsAugust: 82-74-1 +37.51 Units
Post All-Star: 137-134-6 +42.128 Units

Overall: 428-388-15 +108.640 Units
Sides: 240-230 +57.518 Units
Run Lines: 38-66 -12.749 Units
Totals: 166-99-14 +63.871 Units

 

[tuck321]

Great season, Great Ending :cheers: