Sunday MLB (7/1)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 79-69-2 +25.298 Units
July: 0-0 +/-Units

Overall: 281-248-6 +72.322 Units
Sides: 160-147 +50.538 Units
Run Lines: 18-47 -35.922 Units
Totals: 104-57-6 +57.706 Units
3-1 -12.03 Units yesterday. You can call that the worst day I've ever had if you are counting Units but 1 less run in the Pirates/Nats game in which 6 runs were scored off of Bergmann in the 2nd inning, a guy with a sub 3 ERA, would have made it a very profittable day. Even with the loss I am feeling great about how I capped that game. I got lucky with the over in nym/philly game, but I feel like I am capping games pretty well at the moment. Saturday I cut down on my plays, played what I liked as opposed to playing a game just on value or for the sake of betting on the game because it might hit.


I am doing my capping tonight because I will be moving into my apartment tomorrow, still have a couple weeks til I officially move in but I am excited about setting up the place. I'll lock in my plays tomorrow morning.

Leans:

New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics UNDER 8.5 -108 (Pettitte v. Haren)
I wish there was some money on this game right now on Matchbook, this looks like a great under for tomorrow. Yankees haven't hit very well of the past week, minus game 1 of this current series. Oakland "broke out" but Igawa never really showed anything this year in the first place. If he changed his mechanics, I wouldn't know... he got hit by the A's. Barrett is a good ump to have calling this game, should respect the veteran Pettitte, who's been very good this year, and Haren who is my Cy Young winner so far. Oakland pen may be scary... yes especially vs the Yankees who can score out of nowhere but I don't expect to see much of them tomorrow.

St. Louis Cardinals +100 (Maroth v. Bailey)
Bailey hasn't shown anything to me that warrants me backing him while Maroth has been solid the past few weeks and I think we'll be seeing a Weaver like change to him and he finds success in the NL.

Colorado Rockies +121 (Lopez v. Rodriguez)
I'll go with the team who I think is better in the first place. This is really a toss up and I'll take +money in any toss up. Loretta has a good history vs Lopez but the rest of the Stros haven't seen much of him. Sure the Stros have been hitting well but so have the Rockies. Then you go to bullpens, so the Rockies pen isn't good, neither is the Astros. Rodriguez has been decent vs the Rockies and pitched well against them about a month and a half ago but feel the Rockies turn it around once again after funk they were in.

Arizona Diamondbacks +121 (OWINGS vs. Lincecum)
Who's been a better rookie? The less hyped one named Owings. Owings has been shaky towards the later innings in his apperances but he's been solid game in and game out. Lincecum had a nice start last week but SD isn't a great hitting team. Day game, does Bonds sit out? He's the reason they almost won a couple days ago. Also a little biased here but I have Owings figured out.

Minnesota Twins +155 (Baker v. Bonderman)
Sweep away? yea. you better believe it. Bonderman hasn't had much success vs the Twins. I just dont think he should be favored by this much and the Twins are playing catch up and these are big games to win if you want to stay in the playoff/division race.

Baltimore Orioles +127 (Guthrie vs. Lackey)
I think a lot of people will jump on the Angels tomorrow so if I play this I would wait on it. Most likely wont but it's an attractive dog with a strong SP to back the bet.

Texas Rangers +162 (Loe v. Tavarez)
This is a value play... but Texas is hitting the ball pretty well and Loe's been good since his call up. I don't see why you would want to bet on Boston with Tavarez pitching anyways.

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals UNDER 9.5 -130 (Garland v. Thomson)
Doesn't look like this will sit at 9.5 much longer but Eddings is the ump and Garland is a quietly putting together his best year. Thomson is a big question mark as he only started once but recently I have seen games with questionable pitching and under umps go under. Plus the White Sox hitting makes me a little more comfortable going under.


BOL to Yall Sunday :cheers:
 
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Enjoy reading your threads bro, great info as always. :smiley_acbe:
ic
 
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GL tomorrow..Some random thoughts.

Agree with the Spankee under, just don't see either pitcher giving up more than 2-3, should be like a 3-2 game at the end of the 7th.

I dogged Maroth because of his high era and the run support that hid it w/ the Tigers but I can't argue with him having more success over in the NL.

I hate Houston games. I think the Angels get pounded tomorrow but Guthrie +140 will look nice.

White Sox and under seem to fit real well together.
 
thanks IC - your threads are always great to read, that's for sure. BOL today. :cheers:

BOL Terp - haven't seen you in a while :shake:

thanks for your thoughts Green - glad we share some on my leans, NYY Under is my favorite but might jump on Oak as well. Nice thread on the WAC as well. :cheers:

thanks Yanks and GL with your plays today. :shake:
 
thanks outstanding - GL to you as well buddy


Today's Plays, and I haven't learned my lesson since yesterday.

Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 -108.5 (Haren v. Pettitte) (6 Units)
No yesterday was some one of the games I feel I had capped the best and this is the same way, I love the way the teams are hitting right now, I love the pitchers, I love the ump. And this time no pitchers just off the DL, which was probably a reason I simply ignored because I was so confident in backing Bergmann. His previous starts this year were strong and I believed he was ready seeing his 1st start off the DL.

Texas Rangers +164 (Loe v. Tavarez) (1.5 Units)

Really a fade on Tavarez and gut play, think Texas just keeps rolling right on.

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals UNDER 9.5 -128

Hate paying juice on totals for some reason but feel this is very reasonable with Garland v Royals and the not so great bats of the Sox. also smaller bet.

St. Louis Cardinals +102 (Maroth v. Bailey) (1.5 Units)
Fading the kid/backing the former AL pitcher. said it above.

Arizona Diamondbacks +123 (OWINGS vs. Lincecum)
Smaller bet because it is a bit of a "homer" play so to speak. Owings was a stud at Tulane, but it's worked out very well for me betting games he's pitched in. Just hope he can work the plate better and keep his pitch count low in the 1st inning so he can last longer than 5 because recently he's been shaky in the 1st and late in his starts (4th/5th innings).

Minnesota Twins +156 (Baker v. Bonderman) (1.5 Units)
I've seen no Sheff today which is only a plus, Bonderman shouldn't be laying this price and motivation factor I listed above. I do feel however the Tigers will be ready for their next series vs the Indians. He is clutch though, he can get the big outs when he needs to.
 
ReNew, Did you see the highlights of the Wash./Pitt. game from last night. (Like I said, I took a bath on the under, as well). Bases loaded, guy pops up into foul territory, hits the catchers glove and bounces out. What follows? of course, 2 run single. Sickening. Some losers hurt more than others, and that was definitely one of them. Riding the Yanks/A's under today, as well. Heading out to watch Royals/W.Sox today. GL.
 
just got back home and... damn.

thanks trout - dbacks looking bad as Owings did the typical outting and gives up runs in the 5th. hopefully twins cash

nah JRose - currently without cable so no ESPN but thats ridiculous... haha I know that under would cash the majority of the time.

thanks dmoney - bol with your plays as well

thanks blue_chip - i hope so, need to stop the bleeding, my larger plays are missing and I'm not used to that at all. but I did hit 3 plays to almost make up for the big lose earlier, about 1 1/2 units down right now, but looking like Im going to lose the d-backs so 2 1/2 units. If I hit the Twins, which I think I will, I won't lose entirely too much today. Might add .5 a unit to increase it to a 2 unit play.
 
thing is I even eliminated the balty and colorado leans so I am not capping poorly at all right now. I feel like I am capping great, yesterday I was able to hit my other 3 plays but lost the big one, today hitting them all so far but lost the big one, and most likely going to lose arizona too. basically losing the big bets is hurting me, I should probably go back to flat betting, experimenting with the large bets is coming back to hurt me.
 
Adding .5 units to Minnesota, it's a national tv game, dogs love to win on sunday night. + other stuff I've said before in this thread and Thoughts/Discussion

Tonight:

Minnesota Twins +156.5 (Baker v. Bonderman) (2 Units)
 
you're doing fine, nola. you are NOT capping poorly right now, you're right.

great handicapping can still be wrong sometimes... we'd be freaking millionaires if we could predict the future with complete accuracy:smiley_acbe:

i'm thinking about adding to my position on the twinkies tonight as well, but i am going to research more.

if you want to add a 1/2 unit to the twinkies, do it - but for the right reason. don't chase a loss by adding that extra 1/2 unit.

GL, bud... i hope we can close this weekend with a cash on minnesota
:cheers:
 
Adding .5 units to Minnesota, it's a national tv game, dogs love to win on sunday night.

Is that the only night dogs love to win? What night or nights do favorites like to win? :36_11_6: :36_11_6:

(Kiddin' ya Orleans, kiddin' ya. Bol tonight with the Twinkies.) :shake:
 
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