Unicorn
NHL Enthusiast
Hello everyone!
Saturday went as expected, 8-2 on initial leans but considering I haven't actually played/posted anything I'll use that as a moral boost for TODAY.
I've got a pretty good feeling for today, as you'll notice by the amount of money wagered for today. On to today's card.
LA ANGELS (Saunders) @ 1.70 for 14 Units
LA ANGELS (Saunders) -1.5 @ 2.50 for 3 Units
Late game first. The Braves suprised many people by winning on Friday, myself included. But as Jon Garland said after the game, it was a lucky win for them because they hit some balls that usually wouldn't count as a hit. Yesterday I've done my homework for Santana and this young kid Charlie Morton who was 5-2 with 2.05 ERA and .181 BAA in AAA. As I've predicted the Angels struggled with him considering he another unknown guy for them for 2nd night in a row while Santana was going on >5 days rest where he had quite a different numbers (read: not so good). That's why I wrote in Fondy's thread that I'll be against him on his heaviest plays (mainly vs Angels and Milwaukee along with Reds and Dodgers). Anyway, tonight we got Jorge Campillo vs Joe Saunders. As for Campillo - he's been next to awesome for Braves this season - as long as he was in a game, but that's the minus at the same time because he hasn't lasted long enough to quality for a win most of the time. Over his last 3 starts, Campillo has pitched a total of 14.1 innings (less than 5 innings per start) while posting 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP! I take that as some very ugly numbers but considering he was fighting blisters on his pitching hand, it was nothing unusual. Something very important to note here - Campillo will start on long rest tonight (7 days) and who knows what may happen considering all of his starts this season were on 5 days rest. Now something about my favorite Angel, Joe Saunders. Joe has struggled lately, posting a 1-2 7.56 ERA with 1.56 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He had 2 bad starts and 1 quality over that span but interesting and important to know here is this:
- this season, Saunders is 2-0-1 with 2.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP coming off a bad (non-quality) start!
In addition, Saunders will be pitching on >5 days rest tonight, a situation where he was 5-2 3.63 ERA 1.31 WHIP .238 BAA so far (read: great!). Knowing that Saunders was acting as a team stopper so far in the season, I like him very much in this spot. Another useful information is that tonight's home umpire was HU on 16-06-2008, also a night game where Saunders bounced back from his frist loss of the season (vs Rays, a quality start) and pitched a great game vs Dodgers:
16-05-2008 LAA 4 – LA 2 Saunders vs Kuroda<o></o>
<o></o>
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Joe Saunders bounced back from his lone loss of the year (vs TB) with an impressive performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers.<o></o>
The Angels' left-hander held the Dodgers to two runs on five hits, with two walks and one strikeout.<o></o> "Joe did an outstanding job," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said.<o></o>
As for the Angels, they're well known for rarely losing 3 games in a row and considering the Braves struggles vs southpaws (.233 BA .304 OBP 1.9 RPG on road vs LHP this season), I like my Angels to bounce back here. Both Scot Shields and F-Rod should be available for tonight considering either hasn't pitched so far in this series. Because I think they'll try to seal the win before pens are in, I took the RL along with ML.
BOSTON (Beckett) @ 1.70 for 14 Units
BOSTON (Beckett) -1.5 @ 2.00 for 3 Units
My second big play for today, Boston with Beckett. Cincy manager Dusty Baker is imo Cincy's biggest DISadvantage in this series because the way he calls some things doesn't have any sense. Anyway, Beckett will face a team he's known from his old days with Marlins, but unlike the team who roughed him for 0-2 14.14 ERA he's posted against in his career, the present Reds lineup have very little knowledge about him. Just look at this numbers:
Bako 0-for-7
Dunn 1-for-4 (.250)
Patterson 2-for-16 (.125)
Griffey 1-for-3 (.333) with a HR
Considering this will be a DAY game, it's interesting to point out some things. Although Beckett is only 2-2, 5.33 ERA in his day starts this season, his WHIP (0.99) and BAA (.198) are still great. A short look at his past DAY numbers:
- in 2007 Beckett went 9-1 2.53 ERA 1.08 WHIP .229 BAA
- in 2006 Beckett went 6-2 4.21 ERA 1.37 WHIP .222 BAA
- in 2005 Beckett went 4-2 3.43 ERA 1.31 WHIP .226 BAA
It's obvious his DAY numbers were always better than his night numbers while his WHIP and BAA were (and still are) - excellent!
As for Homer Bailey, he's started only in 2 games this season but his lifetime numbers are interesting:
BAILEY lifetime at HOME (vs ROAD):
- 6.75 ERA 1.82 WHIP .296 BAA (vs 4.35 ERA 1.31 WHIP .203 BAA)
BAILEY lifetime in DAY games (vs NIGHT games):
- 7.48 ERA 1.94 WHIP .306 BAA (vs 4.81 ERA 1.43 WHIP .234 BAA)
As for pens, I'll take Sox pen over Reds pen any day of the week and the best example was last night when Red Sox rallied vs their pen to win the game. Also, I like that Sox won last night, because although they're "only" 10-8 in 3rd game overall, they're 9-3 coming off a WIN
My other plays for tonight are:
TORONTO/CH.CUBS Over 8.5 @ 1.90 for 3 Units
COLORADO (Cook) @ 2.15 for 3 Units
FLORIDA (Nolasco) @ 2.35 for 3 Units
KANSAS CITY (Meche) @ 2.25 for 3 Units
HOUSTON (Oswalt) @ 2.05 for 4 Units
CLEVELAND (Sabathia) @ 1.65 for 7 Units
Best of luck everyone! :cheers:
Saturday went as expected, 8-2 on initial leans but considering I haven't actually played/posted anything I'll use that as a moral boost for TODAY.
I've got a pretty good feeling for today, as you'll notice by the amount of money wagered for today. On to today's card.
LA ANGELS (Saunders) @ 1.70 for 14 Units
LA ANGELS (Saunders) -1.5 @ 2.50 for 3 Units
Late game first. The Braves suprised many people by winning on Friday, myself included. But as Jon Garland said after the game, it was a lucky win for them because they hit some balls that usually wouldn't count as a hit. Yesterday I've done my homework for Santana and this young kid Charlie Morton who was 5-2 with 2.05 ERA and .181 BAA in AAA. As I've predicted the Angels struggled with him considering he another unknown guy for them for 2nd night in a row while Santana was going on >5 days rest where he had quite a different numbers (read: not so good). That's why I wrote in Fondy's thread that I'll be against him on his heaviest plays (mainly vs Angels and Milwaukee along with Reds and Dodgers). Anyway, tonight we got Jorge Campillo vs Joe Saunders. As for Campillo - he's been next to awesome for Braves this season - as long as he was in a game, but that's the minus at the same time because he hasn't lasted long enough to quality for a win most of the time. Over his last 3 starts, Campillo has pitched a total of 14.1 innings (less than 5 innings per start) while posting 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP! I take that as some very ugly numbers but considering he was fighting blisters on his pitching hand, it was nothing unusual. Something very important to note here - Campillo will start on long rest tonight (7 days) and who knows what may happen considering all of his starts this season were on 5 days rest. Now something about my favorite Angel, Joe Saunders. Joe has struggled lately, posting a 1-2 7.56 ERA with 1.56 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He had 2 bad starts and 1 quality over that span but interesting and important to know here is this:
- this season, Saunders is 2-0-1 with 2.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP coming off a bad (non-quality) start!
In addition, Saunders will be pitching on >5 days rest tonight, a situation where he was 5-2 3.63 ERA 1.31 WHIP .238 BAA so far (read: great!). Knowing that Saunders was acting as a team stopper so far in the season, I like him very much in this spot. Another useful information is that tonight's home umpire was HU on 16-06-2008, also a night game where Saunders bounced back from his frist loss of the season (vs Rays, a quality start) and pitched a great game vs Dodgers:
16-05-2008 LAA 4 – LA 2 Saunders vs Kuroda<o></o>
<o></o>
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Joe Saunders bounced back from his lone loss of the year (vs TB) with an impressive performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers.<o></o>
The Angels' left-hander held the Dodgers to two runs on five hits, with two walks and one strikeout.<o></o> "Joe did an outstanding job," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said.<o></o>
As for the Angels, they're well known for rarely losing 3 games in a row and considering the Braves struggles vs southpaws (.233 BA .304 OBP 1.9 RPG on road vs LHP this season), I like my Angels to bounce back here. Both Scot Shields and F-Rod should be available for tonight considering either hasn't pitched so far in this series. Because I think they'll try to seal the win before pens are in, I took the RL along with ML.
BOSTON (Beckett) @ 1.70 for 14 Units
BOSTON (Beckett) -1.5 @ 2.00 for 3 Units
My second big play for today, Boston with Beckett. Cincy manager Dusty Baker is imo Cincy's biggest DISadvantage in this series because the way he calls some things doesn't have any sense. Anyway, Beckett will face a team he's known from his old days with Marlins, but unlike the team who roughed him for 0-2 14.14 ERA he's posted against in his career, the present Reds lineup have very little knowledge about him. Just look at this numbers:
Bako 0-for-7
Dunn 1-for-4 (.250)
Patterson 2-for-16 (.125)
Griffey 1-for-3 (.333) with a HR
Considering this will be a DAY game, it's interesting to point out some things. Although Beckett is only 2-2, 5.33 ERA in his day starts this season, his WHIP (0.99) and BAA (.198) are still great. A short look at his past DAY numbers:
- in 2007 Beckett went 9-1 2.53 ERA 1.08 WHIP .229 BAA
- in 2006 Beckett went 6-2 4.21 ERA 1.37 WHIP .222 BAA
- in 2005 Beckett went 4-2 3.43 ERA 1.31 WHIP .226 BAA
It's obvious his DAY numbers were always better than his night numbers while his WHIP and BAA were (and still are) - excellent!
As for Homer Bailey, he's started only in 2 games this season but his lifetime numbers are interesting:
BAILEY lifetime at HOME (vs ROAD):
- 6.75 ERA 1.82 WHIP .296 BAA (vs 4.35 ERA 1.31 WHIP .203 BAA)
BAILEY lifetime in DAY games (vs NIGHT games):
- 7.48 ERA 1.94 WHIP .306 BAA (vs 4.81 ERA 1.43 WHIP .234 BAA)
As for pens, I'll take Sox pen over Reds pen any day of the week and the best example was last night when Red Sox rallied vs their pen to win the game. Also, I like that Sox won last night, because although they're "only" 10-8 in 3rd game overall, they're 9-3 coming off a WIN
My other plays for tonight are:
TORONTO/CH.CUBS Over 8.5 @ 1.90 for 3 Units
COLORADO (Cook) @ 2.15 for 3 Units
FLORIDA (Nolasco) @ 2.35 for 3 Units
KANSAS CITY (Meche) @ 2.25 for 3 Units
HOUSTON (Oswalt) @ 2.05 for 4 Units
CLEVELAND (Sabathia) @ 1.65 for 7 Units
Best of luck everyone! :cheers:
