Sunday League

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 Posted on CTG * --- 49-42; +10,500

*includes a 4 unit loss on 11/17 in a cross sport teaser. first loss came in NFL so I graded it here fwiw. Just how I do it.
_______________________________________________

Heating up again. Nice day yesterday in CFB and NFL. Combined 4-0.

No where near where I need to be in this sport, unit wise, so some work to do.

no plays locked in yet. Still peeling the skin away on a few. Looks like this will be my lean list.

PLAYS

KC +3.5, -110; 4 units
Minny -3, -120; 6 units
TB -3, -130; 4 units
Pitt -2.5, -110; 4 units
Ariz +8, -110; 4 units
Ariz over 7 TT 2H , -115; 2 units
Jets -3, -130; 4 units
Vikes -1.5, -125 1H; 2 units

Lean/ potential plays:

KC
SF
TB (status Garcia)
Ariz (status Boldin)
Pitt
Minn
NYG

As usual, I will keep this screen updated with plays as I lock them in.
 
Last edited:
Locked in the following:

KC +3.5, -110; 4 units
Minny -3, -120; 6 units
TB -3, -130; 4 units
Pitt -2.5, -110; 4 units
Ariz +8, -110; 4 units

Big card for me and some pretty big units.. Seeing it good right now and going to see where that takes me.. Like all 5 and will have some adds..

I'll put some brief thoughts together on each..

GL today all
 
Good luck bud. I am on the first 4 and Seattle today, so very similar cards. Not sure what to think of Arizona with the bad weather and comments from Whisenhunt this week about not wanting to risk injuries at this point in the season.
 
quick thoughts:

Pitt/Tenn-

Tenn, the current version is pretty ordinary IMO. I think lots of pressure built with being undefeated and now they have settled into just a "good" NFL team..2-2 since the undefeated run snapped. They are playing a very good NFL defense today and they are without Haynesworth and VandenBosch .. I hate how Big Ben holds the ball too long but don't think that will be an issue today.

Mi/ KC-

Cold , windy and miserable. Miami is a nice story but laying 3.5 in this spot? No way.. They have beaten their last four foes that have losing records by an average of just 3.3 points per game.. A 3.3 point Miami win here works for me, however a see a SU KC win... Considered, but decided against the ML as this could very easily be a 9-6 type game in this weather.

Ariz/NE-

The whole Ariz can't win east of the Mississippi trend has given us premium points here and I'll take them.. 8 points is just silly IMO.. If Ariz chooses to just coast to the finish line, they are making a big mistake.. Don't think they will.. Warner could enhance his MVP campaign today with a nice game.. See it.

SD/TB-

Buc defense in shutdown mode today.. Playoff contention team at home, laying a fg or less vs team out of playoffs (for the most part)... fits.

Atl/Minn-

Can't believe I am backing TJack in an important game like this, but I like a ton of matchups in this game.. In fact I like nearly of of them.. Vikes keep rolling IMO. This quote from Marlo made it top unit- "When Minnesotans are snowed in we drink, we actually drink alot...":36_11_6:

Expect very intimidating enviroment in the Snowdome today
 
Tee Warner will not do anything it is snowing like hell in new england. However that means both teams likely will not do much in this type of weather so they points may be decent. No run game though in this weather?

Pats are used to the snow, just wanted to tell you, i saw pregame and it is like a blizzard there. Probably big edge to PATS- Zona Warner is a turnover machine anyway in normal weather, and I know you believe he is a MVP candidate, but I honestly believe he is still one of the worst QB's in the NFL, vs good competition he is often down 21-0 every game and standing on the sidelines.

Agree on PItts, starting to feel Minny, agree wouldnt touch Miami laying, and Tampa at -3 seems pretty reasonable to me.

Arizona could come in as the weather could make this a borefest, but could also hurt Zona more due to crazy snow.
 
Hey Tee, not sure if you knew or if it would impact your decision at all but Boldin is NOT playing for AZ today. FYI
 
Streakin said:
it has cost a lot of money to realize that the cards blow
Click to expand...
yep-- that one is gone.. Sleep walking after you clinch is a bad situation going into playoffs..

Gonna have to get some help to get out of these early games in decent shape
 
tee*dub said:
yep-- that one is gone.. Sleep walking after you clinch is a bad situation going into playoffs..

Gonna have to get some help to get out of these early games in decent shape
Click to expand...


Yeah...was not being a jerk; it has cost me a lot too
 
added:

Ariz over 7 TT 2H , -115; 2 units

Backups coming in.. Ariz will score at least one TD IMO.. Fact that game is over helps this play IMO..
 
add:

Vikes -1.5, -125 1H; 2 units

tail with caution. It coming and leaving quick for some reson lately.. In the leave mode now. Happens
 
20+ years gambling, and had that happen dozens of times. (sweep). But sadly, most of the losses were not even close...That, I am not sure I have had happen. No tilt in my blood.. Move on.. Don't like the night game but will look to get involved at Half... Pretty good read on the CFB game I think.. We'll see.

Would have been a good day for the site to go down from my perspective.
 
Tee I noticed a startling trend. I read all of your picks and also in the night game--

Most teams with shaky QB's are not winning at this point in the season-

I think its really important to take good teams with good QB's-

Warner, Favre, Tavaris, MCnabb, Delhomee, Garcia,are not great they all lost, add ROMO in that list- Its that they were all favored except for Delhomme and Warner-

Delhomme combined with FOX lost the cover getting too conservative- also the TROY QB was pretty shitty also, he wasnt good enough to beat SMISS DEFENSE-

I find if you take the QB who will play great is so important now, even Peyton beat Gerrard-

SOmetimes they lose, but if you think about it my friend better QB wins, Ryan beats vikings, Pennington wins-

BIG BEN and Cutler lost, but it happens they can lose, but you will win more of your bets.
 
Speaking of the Troy QB. He looked like someone told him to lose the damn game. I mean they have a chance to attack in OT and win a Bowl game but he shits his pants and forgot where the end zone was. How about the formation on the OT FG attempt??? I've NEVER seen 3 guys lined up off the line of scrimage so the entire Dline has a free pass to rush the kicker. VERY STRANGE OUTCOME.
 
Keep your head up kid....last two weeks can be brutal in NFL...always some puzzling results..

Yesteryda was esp...esp TB and Minny for me..shocked by those too..

I've never seen a day though, like yesteryda, were virtually every team that needed to show up didn't, sans NE....
 
rough week, it can happen. you're good. i had the same. only betting pitt and the vikes but with two of my biggest plays in a while. plenty of games left to make it back
 
not the type of sweep we've grown accustomed to from Tee*Dub; been there...loss of money is one thing we learn to deal with. The loss of confidence is often harder to bounce back from. Do what you NEED to do to get it back and good luck going forward.
 
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