2 Parlays August 20: Mighty Mets Prolong Cardinals' Struggles
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland; Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Detroit?
Eduardo Rodriguez starts for the Tigers tonight.
Rodriguez is in a great spot tonight because he is slated to bounce back after his last outing.
Before his last start, he had allowed 4+ runs four times. After every such start, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in his following start.
He has faced the Guardians twice so far.
Both starts were extremely successful: he's allowed a combined total of zero earned runs in 15 innings against them.
Rodriguez vs. Guardians Batters
Rodriguez can be relied upon to thrive against Cleveland because he matches up so well against them.
He is a lefty who throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, sinker, and slider.
Cleveland ranks dead-last with a .339 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
The Guardians start Logan Allen today.
Allen enters today's contest in strong form: he's allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his past two starts.
Impressively, he limited the Reds to zero runs in six innings in their ballpark.
Allen vs. Tigers Batters
Primarily, Allen throws a fastball, changeup, sweeper, and cutter.
Detroit matches up poorly against him, ranking 28th with a .384 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Royals?
Jordan Lyles starts for the Royals today.
Lyles enters today's game in awful form: he's allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts.
Even the Yankees and Mariners victimized him. Both teams rank well below the Cubs do in runs per game.
Cubs' Lineup
Chicago poses a tougher test for Lyles than his recent opponents who've victimized him.
The Cubs also match up well against him because he is very much a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
They slug .440 against fly ball-inducing pitchers compared to .388 against ground ball-inducing ones.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Chicago starts Kyle Hendricks today.
Hendricks is coming off a start in which he was the victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) conveys how well he actually performed individually and recalls his great stretch of play from the middle to the end of July.
Hendricks vs. Royals Batters
Primarily, Hendricks throws a changeup, sinker, and fastball.
Kansas City matches up poorly against him, slugging well below-average against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Tigers-Guardians first-half under 4 at +105 & Cubs ML at -204 at with Bovada
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for St. Louis?
The Cardinals start Dakota Hudson today.
Hudson enters today's game in poor form in the sense that he's yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) of over 4.80 in each of his last three starts and of over 5.20 in both if his last two starts.
He is performing poorly even against the likes of Oakland.
One problem contributing to his poor performances is his increased tendency to allow home runs.
During this most recent three-start stretch, he's allowed a combined total of four home runs.
Mets Home Runs
This statistic is particularly concerning against a surging Mets team that ranks tenth in home runs per game and is improving in this respect: the Mets are averaging 2.33 home runs in their last three games.
Pete Alonso, for example, has hit two home runs in the first three games of this series against St. Louis.
Hudson's Arsenal
There is a lot in Hudson's arsenal to indicate why opposing batters in general, especially hot ones like New York's, should find him rather easy to hit.
Primarily, he throws a sinker, slider, and fastball.
His primary pitches lack quality.
For example, his fastball places in the 24th percentile in velocity and in the 15th percentile in spin rate.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is rather easy to hit.
The lack of quality of his pitches explains his struggle with getting batters to chase his pitches.
Instead of swinging at stuff outside the zone, Hudson's opponents are able to be selective, waiting for him to throw strikes that they can make good contact with.
Mets' Lineup
I like the Mets and the "over" because they match up superbly well against Hudson.
They rank eighth with a .448 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
I like both bets also because the Mets are sizzling.
They've scored seven or more runs in five of their last seven games.
St. Louis's Lineup
The Cardinals will need to score maybe only very little in order to help the game "over."
While today's Mets starter, Carlos Carrasco, tends to concede a few runs, the Cardinals are currently ice-cold.
They've scored five runs in their last four games, struggling even with pitchers they match up well against.
Team Rhythm
Whereas the Cardinals can't win right now, the Mets have won four in a row, each time by multiple runs.
Best Bet: Parlay Mets ML +129 & Over 9.5 at -125 at +299 odds with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland; Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
- Eduardo Rodriguez is in a favorable bounce-back spot
- Both Detroit and Cleveland's starting pitchers have significant matchup advantages
- The Cubs boast much stronger starting pitching and a more reliable lineup than Kansas City's
Who Starts for Detroit?
Eduardo Rodriguez starts for the Tigers tonight.
Rodriguez is in a great spot tonight because he is slated to bounce back after his last outing.
Before his last start, he had allowed 4+ runs four times. After every such start, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in his following start.
He has faced the Guardians twice so far.
Both starts were extremely successful: he's allowed a combined total of zero earned runs in 15 innings against them.
Rodriguez vs. Guardians Batters
Rodriguez can be relied upon to thrive against Cleveland because he matches up so well against them.
He is a lefty who throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, sinker, and slider.
Cleveland ranks dead-last with a .339 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
The Guardians start Logan Allen today.
Allen enters today's contest in strong form: he's allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his past two starts.
Impressively, he limited the Reds to zero runs in six innings in their ballpark.
Allen vs. Tigers Batters
Primarily, Allen throws a fastball, changeup, sweeper, and cutter.
Detroit matches up poorly against him, ranking 28th with a .384 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Royals?
Jordan Lyles starts for the Royals today.
Lyles enters today's game in awful form: he's allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts.
Even the Yankees and Mariners victimized him. Both teams rank well below the Cubs do in runs per game.
Cubs' Lineup
Chicago poses a tougher test for Lyles than his recent opponents who've victimized him.
The Cubs also match up well against him because he is very much a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
They slug .440 against fly ball-inducing pitchers compared to .388 against ground ball-inducing ones.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Chicago starts Kyle Hendricks today.
Hendricks is coming off a start in which he was the victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) conveys how well he actually performed individually and recalls his great stretch of play from the middle to the end of July.
Hendricks vs. Royals Batters
Primarily, Hendricks throws a changeup, sinker, and fastball.
Kansas City matches up poorly against him, slugging well below-average against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Tigers-Guardians first-half under 4 at +105 & Cubs ML at -204 at with Bovada
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Dakota Hudson's tendency to allow home runs will be problematic especially today
- The Mets are hot as a lineup and as a team
- St. Louis is ice-cold both as a lineup and as a team
Who Starts for St. Louis?
The Cardinals start Dakota Hudson today.
Hudson enters today's game in poor form in the sense that he's yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) of over 4.80 in each of his last three starts and of over 5.20 in both if his last two starts.
He is performing poorly even against the likes of Oakland.
One problem contributing to his poor performances is his increased tendency to allow home runs.
During this most recent three-start stretch, he's allowed a combined total of four home runs.
Mets Home Runs
This statistic is particularly concerning against a surging Mets team that ranks tenth in home runs per game and is improving in this respect: the Mets are averaging 2.33 home runs in their last three games.
Pete Alonso, for example, has hit two home runs in the first three games of this series against St. Louis.
Hudson's Arsenal
There is a lot in Hudson's arsenal to indicate why opposing batters in general, especially hot ones like New York's, should find him rather easy to hit.
Primarily, he throws a sinker, slider, and fastball.
His primary pitches lack quality.
For example, his fastball places in the 24th percentile in velocity and in the 15th percentile in spin rate.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is rather easy to hit.
The lack of quality of his pitches explains his struggle with getting batters to chase his pitches.
Instead of swinging at stuff outside the zone, Hudson's opponents are able to be selective, waiting for him to throw strikes that they can make good contact with.
Mets' Lineup
I like the Mets and the "over" because they match up superbly well against Hudson.
They rank eighth with a .448 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
I like both bets also because the Mets are sizzling.
They've scored seven or more runs in five of their last seven games.
St. Louis's Lineup
The Cardinals will need to score maybe only very little in order to help the game "over."
While today's Mets starter, Carlos Carrasco, tends to concede a few runs, the Cardinals are currently ice-cold.
They've scored five runs in their last four games, struggling even with pitchers they match up well against.
Team Rhythm
Whereas the Cardinals can't win right now, the Mets have won four in a row, each time by multiple runs.
Best Bet: Parlay Mets ML +129 & Over 9.5 at -125 at +299 odds with BetOnline
