2 Parlays July 30: Great Pitching Permeates Missouri Today
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City & Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Sunday July, 30, 2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for the Twins?
Minnesota starts Kenta Maeda today.
Maeda is coming off two strong starts, both against Seattle.
He held them to two earned runs in 6.1 innings before improving to one earned run in 6.1 innings despite their added familiarity with him.
Maeda's Arsenal
Maeda throws a slider, split finger, fastball, sinker, and curveball.
Especially lately, he's doing a great job of striking batters out.
In each of his last four starts, he's accrued over eleven strikeouts per nine innings.
Royals Lineup
Kansas City's outlook is negative tonight because it ranks 27th with a .379 slugging rate against Maeda's pitches from righties.
Plus, the Royals are in a let-down spot after their offensive explosion yesterday.
They tend to flop, hitting-wise, after a high scoring output.
For example, they've scored two runs in both of their last two games that followed one in which they scored eight or more runs excluding extra innings.
Who Starts for the Royals?
Ryan Yarbrough starts for Kansas City.
His consistency is evident in the fact that he's allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts.
Because he's normally reliable, the "under" is a great bet in his starts: the "under" is 5-1 in his starts.
Plus, his matchup advantage is tremendous today.
The Twins rank dead-last with a .320 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs today.
Hendricks is pitching in his second home today: he is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 career starts in Busch Stadium.
But his strong form already justifies optimism: his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 2.50 or lower in both of his last starts.
He's doing a great job of commanding his pitches, avoiding walks, and generating soft contact.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Steven Matz starts for St. Louis today.
He enters today's game in strong form: he's allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last two starts.
Matz vs. Cubs Batters
Chicago is disadvantaged matchup-wise today.
The Cubs slug .390 against Matz's pitches from lefties.
Key Cubs batters struggle to hit him.
For example, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are combined 1-for-11 against him. Dansby Swanson is 3-for-17.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins-Royals under 9.5 at -113 & Cubs-Cardinals under 9 at +105 at +286 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles & Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for the Reds?
Graham Ashcraft starts for Cincinnati today.
Ashcraft enters today's game in great form.
In five straight starts, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer.
He's doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding hard contact.
Dodgers Lineup
One might say that the Dodgers are too good for Ashcraft's form to matter.
But they've cooled off since their hot streak one to two weeks ago.
In their past three games, they're averaging three runs per game.
Plus, they hit much worse in day games.
Their slugging rate is .41 lower daytime than nighttime.
Largely due to this daytime decline in offensive performance, L.A. is yielding -12 units in day games.
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Los Angeles starts Michael Grove today.
Grove has a hard time avoiding large contact, largely due to his fastball.
This is his favorite pitch to throw, although opponents hit .432 and slug .727 against it.
Reds Lineup
But the Reds are primed to take advantage of Grove's entire arsenal.
Grove also throws a slider, curveball, and cutter.
Cincinnati's outlook is positive today because it slugs .430 against Grove's pitches from righties.
Plus, unlike their opponent, the Reds strongly prefer hitting in day games.
Who Starts for Seattle?
The Mariners start Luis Castillo today.
Castillo throws a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
Heat maps show his awful tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His mediocre spin rate makes his pitches rather easy for batters to make contact.
The fact that the movement of his pitches generally isn't special has the same negative effect.
Diamondbacks Lineup
Castillo matches up poorly against Arizona's lineup with his combination of fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
The Diamondbacks rank fifth with a .452 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Look out, among others, for Ketel Marte who has four multi-hit games in the past week.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Unlike Castillo, Kelly does a great job of preventing the long ball.
He ably keeps his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where it is harder for batters to make strong contact.
His outlook today is strong against a Seattle lineup that ranks 20th with a .404 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Reds RL at -128 & Diamondbacks ML at -105 at +248 odds with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City & Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Sunday July, 30, 2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Kenta Maeda, Ryan Yarbrough, and Steven Matz show great form and have strong matchup advantages
- The Royals lineup tends to flop after a strong hitting output
- Kyle Hendricks loves pitching in St. Louis
Who Starts for the Twins?
Minnesota starts Kenta Maeda today.
Maeda is coming off two strong starts, both against Seattle.
He held them to two earned runs in 6.1 innings before improving to one earned run in 6.1 innings despite their added familiarity with him.
Maeda's Arsenal
Maeda throws a slider, split finger, fastball, sinker, and curveball.
Especially lately, he's doing a great job of striking batters out.
In each of his last four starts, he's accrued over eleven strikeouts per nine innings.
Royals Lineup
Kansas City's outlook is negative tonight because it ranks 27th with a .379 slugging rate against Maeda's pitches from righties.
Plus, the Royals are in a let-down spot after their offensive explosion yesterday.
They tend to flop, hitting-wise, after a high scoring output.
For example, they've scored two runs in both of their last two games that followed one in which they scored eight or more runs excluding extra innings.
Who Starts for the Royals?
Ryan Yarbrough starts for Kansas City.
His consistency is evident in the fact that he's allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts.
Because he's normally reliable, the "under" is a great bet in his starts: the "under" is 5-1 in his starts.
Plus, his matchup advantage is tremendous today.
The Twins rank dead-last with a .320 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs today.
Hendricks is pitching in his second home today: he is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 career starts in Busch Stadium.
But his strong form already justifies optimism: his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 2.50 or lower in both of his last starts.
He's doing a great job of commanding his pitches, avoiding walks, and generating soft contact.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Steven Matz starts for St. Louis today.
He enters today's game in strong form: he's allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last two starts.
Matz vs. Cubs Batters
Chicago is disadvantaged matchup-wise today.
The Cubs slug .390 against Matz's pitches from lefties.
Key Cubs batters struggle to hit him.
For example, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are combined 1-for-11 against him. Dansby Swanson is 3-for-17.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins-Royals under 9.5 at -113 & Cubs-Cardinals under 9 at +105 at +286 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles & Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Graham Ashcraft is pitching really well right now
- The Reds are much more reliable during the day than L.A. is
- Merrill Kelly has the matchup edge that Luis Castillo does not
Who Starts for the Reds?
Graham Ashcraft starts for Cincinnati today.
Ashcraft enters today's game in great form.
In five straight starts, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer.
He's doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding hard contact.
Dodgers Lineup
One might say that the Dodgers are too good for Ashcraft's form to matter.
But they've cooled off since their hot streak one to two weeks ago.
In their past three games, they're averaging three runs per game.
Plus, they hit much worse in day games.
Their slugging rate is .41 lower daytime than nighttime.
Largely due to this daytime decline in offensive performance, L.A. is yielding -12 units in day games.
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Los Angeles starts Michael Grove today.
Grove has a hard time avoiding large contact, largely due to his fastball.
This is his favorite pitch to throw, although opponents hit .432 and slug .727 against it.
Reds Lineup
But the Reds are primed to take advantage of Grove's entire arsenal.
Grove also throws a slider, curveball, and cutter.
Cincinnati's outlook is positive today because it slugs .430 against Grove's pitches from righties.
Plus, unlike their opponent, the Reds strongly prefer hitting in day games.
Who Starts for Seattle?
The Mariners start Luis Castillo today.
Castillo throws a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
Heat maps show his awful tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His mediocre spin rate makes his pitches rather easy for batters to make contact.
The fact that the movement of his pitches generally isn't special has the same negative effect.
Diamondbacks Lineup
Castillo matches up poorly against Arizona's lineup with his combination of fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
The Diamondbacks rank fifth with a .452 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Look out, among others, for Ketel Marte who has four multi-hit games in the past week.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Unlike Castillo, Kelly does a great job of preventing the long ball.
He ably keeps his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where it is harder for batters to make strong contact.
His outlook today is strong against a Seattle lineup that ranks 20th with a .404 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Reds RL at -128 & Diamondbacks ML at -105 at +248 odds with BetOnline
