2 Parlays July 23: No Mercy From The Angels Today
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis & St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox today.
Now is a good time to trust Giolito because he is coming off a terrible start, and he normally bounces back from terrible outings.
For example, his previous worst outing came on April 7 when he allowed seven earned runs in four innings in Pittsburgh.
On April 12, he limited Minnesota to one earned run in six innings.
He normally follows his lower-quality outings with one in which he allows at most a couple of runs.
Matchup History
But his starts against Minnesota are particularly good candidates for bounce-back performances from him because he normally thrives against the Twins anyways.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts against the Twins.
Only one Twins hitter who has accrued at least three at-bats against Giolito bats over .235 against him.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins today.
Ober can keep pace with Giolito because he reliably thrives against the White Sox.
The White Sox have mustered two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts against them.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Jordan Montgomery starts for St. Louis today.
The southpaw enters today's game in great form: he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts.
His form is particularly impressive because he has thrived against a Marlins team that ranks fifth in slugging against lefties, an Astros lineup that ranks tenth in slugging against lefties, and a Yankees lineup that ranks twelfth in slugging against lefties.
Montgomery is repeatedly thriving against lineups that are at least as challenging as the one he'll face today.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
The Cubs start Jameson Taillon today.
Taillon has had a few good starts this year, but his good starts are rare and they've all come on the road.
His ERA is 7.06 at home and 4.76 on the road.
At Wrigley Field, opponents bat .320 and slug .564 against him, whereas they bat .214 and slug .365 in his road starts.
His outlook today is particularly negative because the Cards match up excellently against him.
They rank third with a .470 slugging rate against his favorite pitches -- the fastball, cutter, curveball, sweeper, and sinker -- from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Twins first-half under 4.5 at -115 & Cardinals ML at -145 at +216 odds with Bovada
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers Sunday, July 23 at 2:35 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington & Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
I find it shocking that the Dodgers are favored -- on the road and against the Rangers, no less -- with Emmet Sheehan starting.
Sheehan has declined relative to his strong start to the season where, perhaps relying on the element of surprise that rookie pitchers might carry with them, Sheehan had thrived
Whereas today's Rangers' starter Martin Perez will typically hold his opponent to two or three runs, Sheehan has allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in his last two starts.
Sheehan's current form is particularly concerning because he faced lineups, Baltimore's and Pittsburgh's, that are weaker than the one he'll face today, a Rangers lineup that ranks first in runs per game and is even much more productive at home than on the road.
Sheehan's Arsenal
Sheehan throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
Like many young and developing pitchers, he relies too extensively on a single pitch -- he throws his fastball 65.5 percent of the time.
The lack of variety in his arsenal makes him rather easy to figure out.
Drastically, opponents slug .211 higher in innings 4-6 against him than they do in innings 1-3.
But his pitching arsenal is also problematic apart from its lack of variety because his pitches themselves are problematic.
Most notably, heat maps reveal his tendency to leave especially his fastball in the upper-middle parts of the strike zone where batters are likelier to do great damage.
Texas' Lineup
The Rangers match up excellently against Sheehan.
They rank fourth with a .467 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Daytime
The time at which today's game is played is decisive.
The Dodgers are an awful day team -- they yield -10.6 units in day games.
Their hitting suffers: in day games, they bat and slug about .30 lower than they do at night.
Conversely, the Rangers hit way better in day games, where they yield +8.7 units, than they do at night.
Angels' Starting Pitcher Edge
The Angels are worth investing in because they have the stronger starting pitcher matchup by far.
They rank second with a .477 slugging rate against Pirates starter Mitch Keller's pitches from righties.
Conversely, Pittsburgh ranks 22nd with a .404 slugging rate against Angels starter Tyler Anderson's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Rangers ML at -102 & Angels first-half ML at -110 at +278 odds with Bovada
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis & St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
- Lucas Giolito and Bailey Ober both thrive consistently against their opponent today
- Jordan Montgomery shows great form
- The Cardinals hit Jameson Taillon's pitches very well
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox today.
Now is a good time to trust Giolito because he is coming off a terrible start, and he normally bounces back from terrible outings.
For example, his previous worst outing came on April 7 when he allowed seven earned runs in four innings in Pittsburgh.
On April 12, he limited Minnesota to one earned run in six innings.
He normally follows his lower-quality outings with one in which he allows at most a couple of runs.
Matchup History
But his starts against Minnesota are particularly good candidates for bounce-back performances from him because he normally thrives against the Twins anyways.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts against the Twins.
Only one Twins hitter who has accrued at least three at-bats against Giolito bats over .235 against him.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins today.
Ober can keep pace with Giolito because he reliably thrives against the White Sox.
The White Sox have mustered two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts against them.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Jordan Montgomery starts for St. Louis today.
The southpaw enters today's game in great form: he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts.
His form is particularly impressive because he has thrived against a Marlins team that ranks fifth in slugging against lefties, an Astros lineup that ranks tenth in slugging against lefties, and a Yankees lineup that ranks twelfth in slugging against lefties.
Montgomery is repeatedly thriving against lineups that are at least as challenging as the one he'll face today.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
The Cubs start Jameson Taillon today.
Taillon has had a few good starts this year, but his good starts are rare and they've all come on the road.
His ERA is 7.06 at home and 4.76 on the road.
At Wrigley Field, opponents bat .320 and slug .564 against him, whereas they bat .214 and slug .365 in his road starts.
His outlook today is particularly negative because the Cards match up excellently against him.
They rank third with a .470 slugging rate against his favorite pitches -- the fastball, cutter, curveball, sweeper, and sinker -- from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Twins first-half under 4.5 at -115 & Cardinals ML at -145 at +216 odds with Bovada
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers Sunday, July 23 at 2:35 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington & Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
- Emmet Sheehan carries awful form into today's game
- Texas is much better during the day than the Dodgers are
- The Angels have a clear starting pitcher edge over Pittsburgh
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
I find it shocking that the Dodgers are favored -- on the road and against the Rangers, no less -- with Emmet Sheehan starting.
Sheehan has declined relative to his strong start to the season where, perhaps relying on the element of surprise that rookie pitchers might carry with them, Sheehan had thrived
Whereas today's Rangers' starter Martin Perez will typically hold his opponent to two or three runs, Sheehan has allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in his last two starts.
Sheehan's current form is particularly concerning because he faced lineups, Baltimore's and Pittsburgh's, that are weaker than the one he'll face today, a Rangers lineup that ranks first in runs per game and is even much more productive at home than on the road.
Sheehan's Arsenal
Sheehan throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
Like many young and developing pitchers, he relies too extensively on a single pitch -- he throws his fastball 65.5 percent of the time.
The lack of variety in his arsenal makes him rather easy to figure out.
Drastically, opponents slug .211 higher in innings 4-6 against him than they do in innings 1-3.
But his pitching arsenal is also problematic apart from its lack of variety because his pitches themselves are problematic.
Most notably, heat maps reveal his tendency to leave especially his fastball in the upper-middle parts of the strike zone where batters are likelier to do great damage.
Texas' Lineup
The Rangers match up excellently against Sheehan.
They rank fourth with a .467 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Daytime
The time at which today's game is played is decisive.
The Dodgers are an awful day team -- they yield -10.6 units in day games.
Their hitting suffers: in day games, they bat and slug about .30 lower than they do at night.
Conversely, the Rangers hit way better in day games, where they yield +8.7 units, than they do at night.
Angels' Starting Pitcher Edge
The Angels are worth investing in because they have the stronger starting pitcher matchup by far.
They rank second with a .477 slugging rate against Pirates starter Mitch Keller's pitches from righties.
Conversely, Pittsburgh ranks 22nd with a .404 slugging rate against Angels starter Tyler Anderson's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Rangers ML at -102 & Angels first-half ML at -110 at +278 odds with Bovada
