2 Parlays July 16: Phillies Are Wheelin' and Dealin' Today
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia & Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for San Diego?
Seth Lugo starts for the Padres today.
Lugo throws a curveball, fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup.
As heat maps show, he has an awful tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches generally lack sufficient spin and velocity to compensate for his poor location of them.
While his curveball has a ton of spin, batters still manage to hit .308 against it.
Lugo vs. Phillies Batters
Philadelphia matches up well against Lugo, ranking 11th with a .425 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
While 11th isn't super incredible, the fact that Lugo's history in Philadelphia is terrible underscores the Phillies' advantage today.
He suffers a 7.54 ERA in 14 career appearances in Philadelphia.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies.
His ERA in his last two starts belies his strong form.
He is actually continuing to do a great job of inducing soft contact and has merely been unfortunate to yield a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Wheeler's 2.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) on the season indicates how well he is truly performing individually.
Plus, the Padres slug only .405 against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease today.
Cease's high ERA is irrelevant because it reflects his struggles in May, which are irrelevant to his current form.
He has actually been pitching well for a while now, as evident in his sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in both June and July.
This is the high-level Cease whom we got to know last year: he throws a high-velo fastball that he puts a lot of spin on and mixes it well with a high-spin slider that he likes to bury after throwing an elevated fastball.
Pitching Edge
There is good value in Chicago today because it has the pitching edge with Cease.
Cease has sustained his good form even against strong tests and difficult matchups like Texas.
Atlanta's starter today, Kolby Allard, has always been a fringe rotation guy at best. He's given up five earned runs in his last six innings.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -149 & White Sox RL at -140 at +186 odds with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Toronto Blue Jays Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:37 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto & Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Starts for Arizona?
Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks today.
One reason why I think the Diamondbacks are absurdly priced is the fact that Henry has been pitching excellently for a while now.
He has allowed a combined total of two earned runs and 13 hits in his last three starts while doing a good job of minimizing hard contact and inducing soft contact.
His favorite pitch to throw is his fastball, and he mixes in a changeup, curveball, and slider.
Progressively, he has strongly improved his fastball.
His changeup, curveball, and slider are especially difficult to hit because he ably places them on the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
Henry vs. Toronto's Batters
Henry's outlook today is especially positive because he matches up well against the Blue Jays.
They rank 22nd with a .394 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who starts for Toronto?
Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Blue Jays today.
He is off to a torrid start in July, having allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in two starts.
This July start is consistent with the fact that his ERA is at its worst in the month of July compared to other months.
Arizona also matches up well against him, ranking well above average with a .428 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Joe Ryan starts for the Twins today.
Having allowed five earned runs in his last start, Ryan is in a great bounce-back spot.
Before this last start, he has allowed over three earned runs on four separate occasions.
After each one, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in at least six innings.
Ryan vs. A's Batters
Ryan throws a fastball, split finger, sweeper, and slider.
He matches up well against the A's, who rank 27th with a .360 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Oakland?
JP Sears starts for the A's.
He has become a reliable pitcher since a bad April.
Most recently, he allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last two starts.
Today, he matches up well against a Minnesota lineup that ranks 22nd with a .395 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks RL at -140 & Twins-Athletics under 8 at -125 at +209 odds with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia & Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for San Diego?
Seth Lugo starts for the Padres today.
Lugo throws a curveball, fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup.
As heat maps show, he has an awful tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches generally lack sufficient spin and velocity to compensate for his poor location of them.
While his curveball has a ton of spin, batters still manage to hit .308 against it.
Lugo vs. Phillies Batters
Philadelphia matches up well against Lugo, ranking 11th with a .425 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
While 11th isn't super incredible, the fact that Lugo's history in Philadelphia is terrible underscores the Phillies' advantage today.
He suffers a 7.54 ERA in 14 career appearances in Philadelphia.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies.
His ERA in his last two starts belies his strong form.
He is actually continuing to do a great job of inducing soft contact and has merely been unfortunate to yield a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Wheeler's 2.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) on the season indicates how well he is truly performing individually.
Plus, the Padres slug only .405 against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease today.
Cease's high ERA is irrelevant because it reflects his struggles in May, which are irrelevant to his current form.
He has actually been pitching well for a while now, as evident in his sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in both June and July.
This is the high-level Cease whom we got to know last year: he throws a high-velo fastball that he puts a lot of spin on and mixes it well with a high-spin slider that he likes to bury after throwing an elevated fastball.
Pitching Edge
There is good value in Chicago today because it has the pitching edge with Cease.
Cease has sustained his good form even against strong tests and difficult matchups like Texas.
Atlanta's starter today, Kolby Allard, has always been a fringe rotation guy at best. He's given up five earned runs in his last six innings.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -149 & White Sox RL at -140 at +186 odds with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Toronto Blue Jays Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 1:37 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto & Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Starts for Arizona?
Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks today.
One reason why I think the Diamondbacks are absurdly priced is the fact that Henry has been pitching excellently for a while now.
He has allowed a combined total of two earned runs and 13 hits in his last three starts while doing a good job of minimizing hard contact and inducing soft contact.
His favorite pitch to throw is his fastball, and he mixes in a changeup, curveball, and slider.
Progressively, he has strongly improved his fastball.
His changeup, curveball, and slider are especially difficult to hit because he ably places them on the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
Henry vs. Toronto's Batters
Henry's outlook today is especially positive because he matches up well against the Blue Jays.
They rank 22nd with a .394 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who starts for Toronto?
Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Blue Jays today.
He is off to a torrid start in July, having allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in two starts.
This July start is consistent with the fact that his ERA is at its worst in the month of July compared to other months.
Arizona also matches up well against him, ranking well above average with a .428 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Joe Ryan starts for the Twins today.
Having allowed five earned runs in his last start, Ryan is in a great bounce-back spot.
Before this last start, he has allowed over three earned runs on four separate occasions.
After each one, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in at least six innings.
Ryan vs. A's Batters
Ryan throws a fastball, split finger, sweeper, and slider.
He matches up well against the A's, who rank 27th with a .360 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Oakland?
JP Sears starts for the A's.
He has become a reliable pitcher since a bad April.
Most recently, he allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last two starts.
Today, he matches up well against a Minnesota lineup that ranks 22nd with a .395 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks RL at -140 & Twins-Athletics under 8 at -125 at +209 odds with BetOnline
