2 Parlays June 25: Rays Locked in for Big Win
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York & Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday June 25, 2023 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for the Rangers?
Nathan Eovaldi starts for Texas today.
Eovaldi's ERA creates a misleading impression of his quality as a pitcher because it is deflated by his strong stretch of play in a different part of the season.
Right now, he is a different, much worse pitcher.
In his last three starts, he has allowed a combined total of 11 earned runs and five home runs.
Likewise, he is allowing hard contact at a drastically higher rate.
Yankees' Lineup
Eovaldi's ongoing tendency to allow many home runs is especially problematic in Yankee Stadium, which carries a justified reputation for being very friendly to home run hitters.
In this respect, three active Yankee batters are worth watching out for because they have belted ten or more home runs so far: Anthony Volpe, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres.
Among others, also look out for Jake Bauers, who is 18-for-60 with a .617 slugging rate against Eovaldi's pitches from righties.
Gerrit Cole vs. Rangers Batters
Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees tonight.
Cole helps explain why the total for this game is so low, but he is going to suffer an atypically bad performance today.
Several Rangers batters have strong track records against him, which evince their comfort with Cole on the mound.
Marcus Semien slugs .514 against Cole. Robbie Grossman, Adolis Garcia, Mitch Garver, and Josh Jung all slug over .650 against him.
Who Starts for the Diamondbacks?
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona today.
The "over" is 6-0 in his starts against division rivals because he always performs terribly against fellow NL West opponents, the teams that are most familiar with him.
Four of his five worst starts of the season came against the Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres.
Who Starts for the Giants?
Anthony DeSclafani starts for San Francisco today.
The "over" is 5-1-1 in his starts during the day where his ERA is significantly higher than at night.
The Lineups
While the Giants rank fifth in slugging .453 against Nelson's pitches from righties, the Diamondbacks rank second in slugging .458 against DeSclafani's pitches from lefties.
This has been a high-scoring series between two teams who boast lineups in strong form.
Best Bet: Rangers/Yankees over 7.5 at -110 & Diamondbacks/Giants over 9 at +100 at +282 odds with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland & Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Sunday June 25, 2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes starts for the Brewers today.
It would be wrong to lack confidence in him today because of his last start.
Burnes reliably bounces back after performing terribly.
After allowing six earned runs on April 5, he then shut out Arizona in eight innings.
Likewise, he held the Giants to one earned run in seven innings directly after allowing five earned runs in his previous start.
One should expect him to perform well because he has great stuff.
His mixture of velocity and uniquely high spin make his pitches difficult for batters to keep up with and track.
The unusually strong horizontal movement of his cutter, slider, and curveball likewise make them difficult for batters to track.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Aaron Civale starts for the Guardians today.
While his ERA looks attractive, his 4.31 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he is actually performing.
So far, he has benefitted from multiple unsustainable realities, such as an incredibly high strand rate. He is due to give up more runs.
The Lineups
In addition to preferring Burnes to his Cleveland counterpart, I also prefer the Brewers' lineup.
Milwaukee slugs .420 against Civale's primary pitches from righties whereas the Guardians slug .386 against Burnes' pitches.
Who Starts for the Royals?
Daniel Lynch starts for Kansas City today.
Lynch has given up a combined total of ten runs in two starts against the ninth- and tenth-highest scoring teams.
Conversely, he has given up five earned runs in his three other starts, which came at home to the Rockies and Nationals and in Detroit.
Rays Lineup
Today's game will be Lynch's toughest test.
The Rays rank number two in runs per game.
Plus, they match up superbly with him given what pitches he throws and his pronounced fly ball-inducing style.
They rank number one with a .487 slugging rate against his pitches from righties and slug .491 against fly ball pitchers.
Tyler Glasnow vs. Royals Batters
Tyler Glasnow starts for Tampa Bay.
Glasnow throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
As measured by things like velocity, spin, and movement, his stuff is clearly superior to Lynch's.
Plus, he has vastly stronger matchup potential: the Royals rank 30th in slugging .350 against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Brewers ML at -107 & Rays RL at -125 at +248 odds with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York & Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday June 25, 2023 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
- Nathan Eovaldi suffers worrisome form
- Rangers' batters have strong track records against Gerrit Cole
- Ryne Nelson and Anthony DeSclafani both face excruciating matchups against in-form lineups
Who Starts for the Rangers?
Nathan Eovaldi starts for Texas today.
Eovaldi's ERA creates a misleading impression of his quality as a pitcher because it is deflated by his strong stretch of play in a different part of the season.
Right now, he is a different, much worse pitcher.
In his last three starts, he has allowed a combined total of 11 earned runs and five home runs.
Likewise, he is allowing hard contact at a drastically higher rate.
Yankees' Lineup
Eovaldi's ongoing tendency to allow many home runs is especially problematic in Yankee Stadium, which carries a justified reputation for being very friendly to home run hitters.
In this respect, three active Yankee batters are worth watching out for because they have belted ten or more home runs so far: Anthony Volpe, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres.
Among others, also look out for Jake Bauers, who is 18-for-60 with a .617 slugging rate against Eovaldi's pitches from righties.
Gerrit Cole vs. Rangers Batters
Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees tonight.
Cole helps explain why the total for this game is so low, but he is going to suffer an atypically bad performance today.
Several Rangers batters have strong track records against him, which evince their comfort with Cole on the mound.
Marcus Semien slugs .514 against Cole. Robbie Grossman, Adolis Garcia, Mitch Garver, and Josh Jung all slug over .650 against him.
Who Starts for the Diamondbacks?
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona today.
The "over" is 6-0 in his starts against division rivals because he always performs terribly against fellow NL West opponents, the teams that are most familiar with him.
Four of his five worst starts of the season came against the Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres.
Who Starts for the Giants?
Anthony DeSclafani starts for San Francisco today.
The "over" is 5-1-1 in his starts during the day where his ERA is significantly higher than at night.
The Lineups
While the Giants rank fifth in slugging .453 against Nelson's pitches from righties, the Diamondbacks rank second in slugging .458 against DeSclafani's pitches from lefties.
This has been a high-scoring series between two teams who boast lineups in strong form.
Best Bet: Rangers/Yankees over 7.5 at -110 & Diamondbacks/Giants over 9 at +100 at +282 odds with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland & Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Sunday June 25, 2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
- Corbin Burnes is in a great bounce back spot
- Milwaukee's lineup has stronger matchup potential than its Guardian counterpart
- The Rays match up excellently against Daniel Lynch, who also has much worse stuff than Tyler Glasnow
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes starts for the Brewers today.
It would be wrong to lack confidence in him today because of his last start.
Burnes reliably bounces back after performing terribly.
After allowing six earned runs on April 5, he then shut out Arizona in eight innings.
Likewise, he held the Giants to one earned run in seven innings directly after allowing five earned runs in his previous start.
One should expect him to perform well because he has great stuff.
His mixture of velocity and uniquely high spin make his pitches difficult for batters to keep up with and track.
The unusually strong horizontal movement of his cutter, slider, and curveball likewise make them difficult for batters to track.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Aaron Civale starts for the Guardians today.
While his ERA looks attractive, his 4.31 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he is actually performing.
So far, he has benefitted from multiple unsustainable realities, such as an incredibly high strand rate. He is due to give up more runs.
The Lineups
In addition to preferring Burnes to his Cleveland counterpart, I also prefer the Brewers' lineup.
Milwaukee slugs .420 against Civale's primary pitches from righties whereas the Guardians slug .386 against Burnes' pitches.
Who Starts for the Royals?
Daniel Lynch starts for Kansas City today.
Lynch has given up a combined total of ten runs in two starts against the ninth- and tenth-highest scoring teams.
Conversely, he has given up five earned runs in his three other starts, which came at home to the Rockies and Nationals and in Detroit.
Rays Lineup
Today's game will be Lynch's toughest test.
The Rays rank number two in runs per game.
Plus, they match up superbly with him given what pitches he throws and his pronounced fly ball-inducing style.
They rank number one with a .487 slugging rate against his pitches from righties and slug .491 against fly ball pitchers.
Tyler Glasnow vs. Royals Batters
Tyler Glasnow starts for Tampa Bay.
Glasnow throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
As measured by things like velocity, spin, and movement, his stuff is clearly superior to Lynch's.
Plus, he has vastly stronger matchup potential: the Royals rank 30th in slugging .350 against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Brewers ML at -107 & Rays RL at -125 at +248 odds with BetOnline
