Sunday early discussion

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
These are leans only, I still haven't pulled the trigger on anything:

Indiana + points at home looks enticing against the Bulls, who managed to snatch a win against Denver, but they're facing a team who are eager to show some balls after a horrid run they've had.
This might be a good spot to pound the home doggy.

Not a big fan of playing totals but I think New Orleans and Houston could go well under the margin, still thinking about that one. 190.5 is currently up.


Phoenix actually had a rather sub par game against the Kings at home 2 days ago, as shooting wise they were definitely in a funk, they could step up here and win this one by DD, provided both Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas are still out I think I might pound this one hard. Don't think the Suns will have a horrid shooting night like 2 nights ago.

Suns had a 55-29 rebounding edge in Arizona and I don't see a sudden change of tune here, the Kings are severely undermanned, undersized and demoralized. Artest or no Artest, these guys are cooked, done, no way they're reaching the playoffs, and Suns could dismantle them like a 4 year old dismantles his toy truck.

Laying road chalk with Detroit and SA doesn't attract me at all. I know the Sonics are a liability playing without Allen (if he doesn't play) but 7.5 points is a tad much. Also the Pistons, I have no interest laying 5.5 when the Pistons could take this one in late 4th or allow a late cover provided they went on a tear in the first half.

The Warriors should make a compelling bet in LA, no one will convince me they'll have a lot of backers against history hunting Kobe Bryant and his supporting cast (that's what they are at the moment), I might play all possible overs here for a unit apiece as well, the over 223, team totals, 1st H over, etc... this one could go well over 230 if GSW keep playing no D like they did against the Wizards.




Early leans: Indiana +2, GSW +3,5, Phoenix -6,5.


any comments /discussion are welcomed.

:cheers:
 
Over at Lakers look good. The way Kobe is playing now, it is either Lakers or no play for me
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>NBA Basketball - Sun 3/25</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Spread</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Points</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>701</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -9.5 1.943 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 187 1.935 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2>Props
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 10:05 AM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>702</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Atlanta Hawks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +9.5 1.962 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 187 1.971 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>703</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Houston Rockets</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -5 1.962 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 190.5 1.909 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>704</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New Orleans Hornets <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +5 1.943 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 190.5 2.000 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>705</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Bulls</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -2 2.000 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 184 1.952 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 12:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>706</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Indiana Pacers <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +2 1.909 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 184 1.952 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>709</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Phoenix Suns</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -6.5 1.952 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 217 1.952 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 12:30 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>710</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Sacramento Kings <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +6.5 1.952 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 217 1.952 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>711</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Detroit Pistons</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -5.5 2.020 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 188.5 1.909 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 12:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>712</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Milwaukee Bucks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +5.5 1.893 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 188.5 2.000 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>715</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Antonio Spurs</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -7.5 1.935 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 185.5 1.952 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 06:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>716</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Supersonics <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +7.5 1.971 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 185.5 1.952 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 3/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>717</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +3.5 1.952 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 223 1.926 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 06:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>718</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Lakers <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -3.5 1.952 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 223 1.980 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
But that's exactly what the Lakers are at the moment: Kobe. Kobe can beat Memphis on his own, he can beat New Orleans on his own, but THIS Golden State, the way they're playing when they're clicking (with full lineup), I don't think he will be enough to beat them, taking the points here is just a bonus the way I see it, even though they still have road issues, their record is severely affected by the absence of Baron Davis, which has crippled them long enough.
 
Lakers lost 5 in a row and I think they win 5 in a row. Spurs at home a serious distraction for GS the next day. This is just preliminary as not ready to back it up with cash yet.
 
of course prior to making any bets we have to be informed on players' status, especially in Indiana and Sacto.

:shake: So I'm off to bed now, and when I wake up news should be available and updated, so we'll be smarter then. Night. ;)
 
Right now my strongest lean which i intend to bet is Bucks and under. No compliment to the Bucks just a feeling Detroit will be very Down for this game.
 
Spread is 5 so waiting but have bet under the 188.5. Strong belief that this under is gold. GL
 
NOK have gone Over 7 of their last 8 at home, and 17 of their last 22 overall. They have HOU then DAL at home next.

Against HOU this season, 186 (h) & 161 (a), both Under.

Against Dallas this season, 158 (a), 169 (h) & 174 (a), all Under.

IMO, NOK's recent Over form was always going to lead to inflated lines for these 2 coming fixtures, and if they manage an Over w/Houston then that just cements the Dallas line being higher than *it should*.

Add in the fact that HOU is 6-2 to Over on the road since the break, and DAL is 7-3 to Over last 10, arent facts that are about to reign in these lines at all. Both those sides can manhandle NOK, I'm considering chasing an Under result in 1 of these 2 fixtures.
 
BC84, your posts on these totals still confuse me some. im gonna have to go back and reread your stickey thread.

didnt you use to post your plays?
 
brewers - I post up plays when I have a bunch of stats to impart. otherwise I'll post my plays generally in in-games, or other's threads.
 
I kinda like pacers here too.. maybe the bulls might be looking fowad against DET on thurs... hpefully that ill provide a distraction...bsies pacers need to play some dsperate ball to not fall out of the playofs... i also like GS ML and pho
 
Kobe Player Prop is going to look good Sunday.

In the last game against Memphis I had Kobe Over 40.5 +120 from thegreek. I'm expecting something like 43.5 to be set today.
 
Beting against the lakers at this moment doesn't seem like a good idea (not a lakers fan, I swear). It's gonna be a fast game and theres a good chance Kobe will score +50 again.

Like the Suns and Houston to cover, I think NOK doesn't perform very well against good Ds.
 
push,

All I can tell you is the Hornets have beat the Rockets twice already this year. Once with Yao and the other time without. Hard to win in Oklahoma City. That's all I will say.
 
I'm staying away from Hornets' games from here on out... Paul's foot injury has become more noticeable (hobbling off the court at times) and it's been dragging his fg% percentage down over the weeks - not sure how much longer he can play through that type of pain.
 
handy some time ago I would agree to that, but now I just cant see NOK as a great home team. I think their D is much worser now, and that means that average road teams like NJ can actually win there.
 
The difference between NJ and Houston is that Yao is telephone pole. He's tall, but he's stuck in one place, too. Against the Suns quick guards he was more than a liability on defense...he was a gaping black hole that looked like the rim. Chris Paul is quick as fired hell, and I'm not so sure the Rockets good defense is going to be able to stop him. At all. Seriously......Chris Paul vs Rafer Alston...

that's a joke.

I'm inclined to agree with Handy on this one...I'm not so sure Houston will win this game at all, though they're certainly capable. Big problems I see are Chandler actually being able to cover Yao (obviously not a complete shutdown, but it won't be an automatic 25 like he has been recently), and T-mac perhaps not shooting well (and yet still taking 30 shots), and Rafer Alston taking any shots at all.:down:

biggest benefit for Houston is about the only thing the Hornets have to play for is a season sweep. The rockets should give more of a shit about this game...but at home this season the Hornets are something like 20-14...this matches the Rockets away record of 20-14. I would lean toward the points here...and I don't do that very often.

Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans


Deke, btw, is day-to-day.
And T-Mac is questionable with an illness.

That equals a likely hornets win in my mind...I didn't know about T-mac when I started writing this....if he's on his ass today, I might consider a bet on the Hornets...
 
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