Sunday discussion

Gotta look at things but I think I’ll have to attack Fedde if everything lines up.

Red Sox overpriced I think and I’m a fan and don’t like twins all that much for various reasons.

My dude Taj capable of punching out some Yankees
 
I love A’s but b2b days I’m on fish. Ya’ll know I’ve loved Edwardo Cabrera for years, havnt looked at his charts this year but im assuming he still close to elite despite the era. At least I get plus money today! 1st 5 might be the way to go and Cabrera props
 
Grabbed snakes +115 and nats +102. Gore as a dog against Nick Martinez is a big edge!! Dunno where it go and I’ll prob be on some props to but those prices were quick grabs I’ll do the math in morning and make sure it was the right thing.
 
I barely remember if I started thread for today or not. Got a bunch of zans yesterday and think it fair to say when I don’t have a drug for week or 2 I may over indulge a bit that 1st day!! Think I ate like 9 the blue footballs which 4.5 bars which a lot!! Trying to get enough coffee in me to clear my head and look at this card, I hope the early plays prices went my way I don’t even remember betting them. Lol
 
So I also bet Mets team total ov 4.5 and -1.5, pretty much continuing the Fedde theme from yesterday, I thought it was just another sign of what a joke the franchise has become trading for this clown and his numbers have looked even worse than before he went to Japan and allegedly learned to pitch! In fairness he has had 4 qs compared to only 2 games he been smashed but I think that ratio has real potential to be 50-50 at best. His pitches when he gets over the plate just don’t play, the stuff is below avg imo. Walk rate highest of career while k rate the lowest, I know in his career the splits between right and left been minimal but I think we gonna see a rise is what lefty batters hitting off this clown cause just doesn’t have the pitch mix t deal w lefties like most pitchers have adapted to. He throwing his sinker slider more than ever which have proven to be about the worst 2 pitches to throw to left handed batters from a rhp and neither those pitches close to elite. Look for the left handed bats in Mets lineup to hit him early and hard. The only bummer is Busch is gonna play big today as out of nowhere after a cold nasty rain all day yesterday we back down to 50s for the high today so the park will be playing about as big it ever does this afternoon. That goes for both teams tho and I trust Mets will make hard contact so often against Fedde it shouldn’t stop them from scoring runs.

I don’t know much of anything bout Tidwell, it appears he has pretty good stuff but is this his 1st pro start? His stuff clearly plays which in Busch in this weather the park will be forgiving and or the 2 no question which pitcher has better pure stuff. Love the Mets team total but I thought getting close to +130 laying the -1.5 it was worth a bet as well.,
 
Gore ov 6.5 k’s -113

Reds bout average far as striking out vs lhp but ya’ll know how big a fan I was of Nats getting gore in that Soto trade (I believe). The kid was just raw. The contact rate against him is down across the board and his swinging strike rate is climbing into the elite territory I expected from a kid with this stuff, he now 26 and historically I’ve found outside the one in a million skenes type I believe most elite pitchers start in growing into their skin about this age (@B.A.R. im sure can attest to the number of aces his team lost around age 26-27 and they instantly became elite, it wasn’t cause tigers message was wrong, lije it is in Pittsburgh, it just the contracts happen to be running out at the worst time). Anyways I think gore in that sweet spot where the knowledge is starting to match the raw talent, if they want to give me plus money to get 7k’s I happily take it as he has hit this number in 5 of 7!!!
 
Stars scored more goals in the 3rd period last night than Rangers have runs in their last 4 games.

Offense is just in a (prolonged) bad place. Year 2 now.
 
2daBank said:
So I also bet Mets team total ov 4.5 and -1.5, pretty much continuing the Fedde theme from yesterday, I thought it was just another sign of what a joke the franchise has become trading for this clown and his numbers have looked even worse than before he went to Japan and allegedly learned to pitch! In fairness he has had 4 qs compared to only 2 games he been smashed but I think that ratio has real potential to be 50-50 at best. His pitches when he gets over the plate just don’t play, the stuff is below avg imo. Walk rate highest of career while k rate the lowest, I know in his career the splits between right and left been minimal but I think we gonna see a rise is what lefty batters hitting off this clown cause just doesn’t have the pitch mix t deal w lefties like most pitchers have adapted to. He throwing his sinker slider more than ever which have proven to be about the worst 2 pitches to throw to left handed batters from a rhp and neither those pitches close to elite. Look for the left handed bats in Mets lineup to hit him early and hard. The only bummer is Busch is gonna play big today as out of nowhere after a cold nasty rain all day yesterday we back down to 50s for the high today so the park will be playing about as big it ever does this afternoon. That goes for both teams tho and I trust Mets will make hard contact so often against Fedde it shouldn’t stop them from scoring runs.

I don’t know much of anything bout Tidwell, it appears he has pretty good stuff but is this his 1st pro start? His stuff clearly plays which in Busch in this weather the park will be forgiving and or the 2 no question which pitcher has better pure stuff. Love the Mets team total but I thought getting close to +130 laying the -1.5 it was worth a bet as well.,
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Been looking at Mets GM1 TT all morning as well. Trying to figure out FF or what, but leaning FG TT over as well.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Stars scored more goals in the 3rd period last night than Rangers have runs in their last 4 games.

Offense is just in a (prolonged) bad place. Year 2 now.
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Their park is dead last in overs, hitting at 36.4% since 2024. Is it a combo of having good pitchers & shitty batting, or does the park itself contribute to it? It's not like their line up has zero talent, there's a lot of good hitters there.
 
Taj Bradly ov 5.5 k’s +106

Another guy I been a fan of for years, this one has just been a more maddening roller coaster but plus money to punch out 6 w this talent? Anytime they wanna offer that I’ll be taking it! His walk rate this season been far from ideal and more unsettling his k’s per 9 has dropped drastically without much reason for the concept. It appears to me guys are somehow able to spit on his off speed out the zone this year only chasing 21% the time which a good 10% lower than his previous low! Is he tipping or missing so bad the pitch not enticing? Yes yanks smashing pitching from both sides the plate but they also have no issue striking out which they do over 26% the time vs rhp, most with not nearly the stuff Taj has! Plus money to get 6k’s is without a doubt a long term winner imo.
 
peelpub94 said:
Been looking at Mets GM1 TT all morning as well. Trying to figure out FF or what, but leaning FG TT over as well.
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Until I get back to Illinios I can’t play 1st 5 team totals it almost like they chopped one my legs out, not whole leg but like at the ankle so I had to learn to walk on a nub (I’m a tough son of a bitch! Lol)., I don’t really wanna play the fedde over 2.5 era but I would be all over the mets ff tt over
 
peelpub94 said:
Their park is dead last in overs, hitting at 36.4% since 2024. Is it a combo of having good pitchers & shitty batting, or does the park itself contribute to it? It's not like their line up has zero talent, there's a lot of good hitters there.
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Yes, there are. It's essentially the same core group that won a World Series in '23.
 
Crochet ov 6.5 k’s -125

Most expensive k prop for me today. Twins never been strangers to swinging and missing, against lefties they dangerously close to hitting 30% strike out rate, actually think they will get over that mark in this game!, twins only have 1extrq base hit vs chrochet in very limited at bats. He fanned 12 of those 34 batters and only allowed 6 hits with pretty low exit velo’s across the board. He only has cashed this in 4 of 7 starts but think the matchup right for a possible double digit k game. Starting to doze off so that half to be enough on this one! Lol
 
Cabrera ov 5.5 +108

If you didn’t know I was playing this you havnt been reading my stuff last 2-3 years!! I loved the A’s this year but this also fish Ff all day! Anytime you wanna give me plus money to get 6k’s w this guy I don’t care bout matchup. He has kinda traded in his 4 seemer for a sinker which does scare me a bit, but he still throwing slightly more off speed than heat which tells me or I hope that means the bowling ball sinker is mostly for righties and the lefties get a high percent the nasty change up. At this number it just an auto play for me unless he starts pricing this crazy low swing and miss the new him then all have to bail.
 
peelpub94 said:
Their park is dead last in overs, hitting at 36.4% since 2024. Is it a combo of having good pitchers & shitty batting, or does the park itself contribute to it? It's not like their line up has zero talent, there's a lot of good hitters there.
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I loved the field that Juan Gone built in the 90s. Not sure why they built that warehouse. From a TV perspective it's horrible. Rather watch a Rays game in that garage.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Stars scored more goals in the 3rd period last night than Rangers have runs in their last 4 games.

Offense is just in a (prolonged) bad place. Year 2 now.
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Did stars fucking win? I couldn’t tell by my account cause luckily I had the foresite to live bet stars +300 down 2-0 cause I have a fairly big parlay with some baseball team who cashed Along w Avs. So at that point I was gonna make basically the same either way. Impressed I was able to pull that off, I barely remember cause all the weed and zannys! Lol
 
peelpub94 said:
These 3 coaches need to be kicked:

View attachment 96528
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Not sure manager can make o’s hit lhp? They need some platoon guys who can just crush lefties or it gonna be an odd season for them, remember the were a your or 18 months ahead of schedule when they kept getting in and rangers taking their lunch in playoffs, I think they immature, every year they replacing a young guy with the next prospect cause they had so many. They need to bring in a gm who can go to the next step and start using some these assets for trades, the group who built this system are obviously a bit to emotionally attached w this group. I’m hoping they just tread water and that i start hearing around end of June they ready ans willing to bolster their pen and try to get a big name front line starter, I’d bet you a wooden nickel o’s make a move or 2 they will surge in 2nd half. If I hear they shopping I’ll prob take a future flyer on them in July just have to see if it plays out but don’t think it on manager the lineup isn’t very balanced and his lefties have not dealt with lhp well.
 
bulldogs said:
Haney K total 3.5. Seems really low considering he has went over that every start this year but 1
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0 k’s vs a cubs team who generally doesn’t mind swinging and missing, as do many high scoring teams. Haney I believe has diminished, what they charging on over 3.5? Has to be around -180:200? He obviously capable but he missing less bats this year, his velo ticking down, I think the easiest time for pitchers to get k’s is early starts before hitting locks in and it cold a lot. I’m not saying he can’t hit 4, I’d even say he hits it lows 60% the time, but I doubt they justifies price and I also think there a real chance he doesn’t pitch entire 5 innings. I just couldn’t do it with the juice.
 
Can’t recall if I addressed hitter props, lol.

All ov 1.5 h:r/rbi

Bregman
soto
Devers
Tatis

Over 1.5 total bases

Bellinger
Rice


List not close to complete, lol
 
some side/totals im on.

Ff under 5 nats/reds
Ff under 4 milw/cubs (love it)
Under 4.5 nats/reds.
Kc-1.5, they can’t score so ill lay -1.5? Prob a stupid bet

Over in hockey pretty big. Blues small
 
Think I pretty much am down on everything I want to me, im gonna get baked and sleep a bit before going to see Theresa. Gl everyone
 
A’s team total under 4.5,, woulda preferred a Ff team total but as mentioned the offshore to smart to give me those!!
 
You guys gonna talk bases w me during games or should I go visit theresa? Rather talk games! Anyone w no life?? lol
 
I need a play on the Phillies game - going to lunch with boring family but that game will be on
 
gg99 said:
I need a play on the Phillies game - going to lunch with boring family but that game will be on
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Imo snakes at that price far and away the better side, think I played them overnight if you read the earlier post. You didn’t give me a lot of time so props were out of question.
 
I end up up parlaying diamondback’s team total over 2 1/2 with Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline
 
It hard enough for me to fade A’s. You think I get rewarded for it. Long way for Cabrera to hit his k’s just can’t believe he gave up 2 already. Long as that it for him and he settles in the k’s should be there, he is has only thrown 31 pitches luckily. Springs outs one I let go by im not happy out,
 
2daBank said:
0 k’s vs a cubs team who generally doesn’t mind swinging and missing, as do many high scoring teams. Haney I believe has diminished, what they charging on over 3.5? Has to be around -180:200? He obviously capable but he missing less bats this year, his velo ticking down, I think the easiest time for pitchers to get k’s is early starts before hitting locks in and it cold a lot. I’m not saying he can’t hit 4, I’d even say he hits it lows 60% the time, but I doubt they justifies price and I also think there a real chance he doesn’t pitch entire 5 innings. I just couldn’t do it with the juice.
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-130
 
gg99 said:
I end up up parlaying diamondback’s team total over 2 1/2 with Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline
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Kinda shocked the lines they hanging for Cavs, no disrespect to them but pacers are good!! I thought 5-6 tops, very close to playing pacers. I already have the most overrated playing in league assist 10+, Allen under 11 boards, this a tough series for Allen and ton of long rebounds I’d think, and van fleet over 3.5 treys pays super fat! I bet him to start series and he was terrible and I got away from him, big mistake, now tonight he prob suck again, I really don’t believe he will but that been the trend for me. I don’t really think dubs guards can stick on him without help. He the only guy they have to worry boot which scares me but I believe he will give them at least the 20+ rickets offenses has to have to have any chance cause the youngsters often look like a monkey trying to put a football thru the little circle shape on one them boards! (Sorry total lack of sleep my jokes not hitting mark yet!!)., anyways I think i fell asleep and forgot what this post about! Lol
 
Cabrera killing me. 1-2 and he just not looking to put them away. I mean he pitching great but he coulda fanned 1-2 this inning and let me free!! His pitch count still ok if he can punch out this last batter
 
Cabrera just gave up a 0/2 infield single. That gonna destroy his prop a tapper this be his last inning now
 
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