Sunday Discussion/Thoughts

[reNew Orleans]

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">951</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
B. Carlyle</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -176 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">952</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Florida Marlins
D. Willis</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +166 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-122 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">953</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">St Louis Cardinals
M. Maroth</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -185 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+100 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10.5 +101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:15 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">954</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
H. Bailey</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +175 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10.5 -111 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">955</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Washington Nationals
M. Bacsik</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -151 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+137 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -104 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:35 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">956</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-145 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">959</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
R. Lopez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -164 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +103 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">960</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
W. Rodriguez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +154 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-129 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -113 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">961</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee Brewers
D. Bush</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+105 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:20 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">962</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-113 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">963</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
M. Owings</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -171 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 +101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 01:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">964</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
T. Lincecum</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +161 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-129 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -111 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">965</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
J. Germano</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -206 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+107 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -114 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 01:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">966</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +186 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 +104 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">967</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Shields</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -153 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +109 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">968</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
C. Lee</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +143 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-139 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -119 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">969</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
D. Haren</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -164 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+130 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -102 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">970</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
A. Pettitte</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +154 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-138 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -108 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">971</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
S. Baker</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+155 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">972</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-163 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">973</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">LAA Angels
J. Lackey</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -104 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:35 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">974</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">975</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
K. Loe</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+164 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 11 -102 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">976</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
J. Tavarez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-172 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 11 -108 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">977</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago White Sox
J. Garland</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -215 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-112 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +120 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:10 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">978</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
J. Thomson</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +195 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -130 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Sun 7/1</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">979</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
S. Marcum</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -201 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -119 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 01:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">980</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
JEF. Weaver</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +183 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +109 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ff0000"><td colspan="3" class="sports-label">Sunday, Jul 1</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> American League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Oakland at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: Ted Barrett</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Danny Haren
Andy Pettitte
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Home Plate Umpire: Chuck Meriwether</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> James Shields
Cliff Lee
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> LA Angels at Baltimore
Home Plate Umpire: Gerry Davis</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> John Lackey
Jeremy Guthrie
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">2:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Texas at Boston
Home Plate Umpire: Jeff Kellogg</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Kameron Loe
Julian Tavarez
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">2:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Chi. White Sox at Kansas City
Home Plate Umpire: Doug Eddings</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Jon Garland
John Thomson
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">4:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Toronto at Seattle
Home Plate Umpire: Sam Holbrook</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Shaun Marcum
Jeff Weaver
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Minnesota at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: Tim McClelland</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Scott Baker
Jeremy Bonderman
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> National League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Atlanta at Florida
Home Plate Umpire: Lazaro Diaz</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Buddy Carlyle
Dontrelle Willis
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:15 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> St. Louis at Cincinnati
Home Plate Umpire: Tim Tschida</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Mike Maroth
Homer Bailey
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Washington at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: Marvin Hudson</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Mike Bacsik
Paul Maholm
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> NY Mets at Philadelphia
Home Plate Umpire: Dan Iassogna</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Oliver Perez
Kyle Kendrick
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">2:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Colorado at Houston
Home Plate Umpire: Jerry Meals</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Rodrigo Lopez
Wandy Rodriguez
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">2:20 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Milwaukee at Chi. Cubs
Home Plate Umpire: Brian Runge</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> David Bush
Jason Marquis
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">4:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Arizona at San Francisco
Home Plate Umpire: Larry Vanover</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Micah Owings
Tim Lincecum
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">4:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> San Diego at LA Dodgers
Home Plate Umpire: Gary Cederstrom</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Justin Germano
Chad Billingsley
Bullpen Availability</td></tr></tbody></table>
'an_horse'

 

[E.T.G.]

Yankees under 8.5? I don't see them breaking out after getting 1 hit today and facing a very tough Haren. Pettite has been tough to hit all yr.

 

[Satyr]

early lean: Baltimore for me.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Random Thoughts:

NL:

Atl/Fla - two pitchers here that make it appear that is should go over with ease, but Laz Diaz is an under ump so he might be generous. A warning to those playing the total in this game.

stl/cin - Maroth pitched well in his 1st start as an NL pitcher and I feel it continues here. Bailey has not been very impressive since his call up.

was/pit - washington just can't score runs, its obvious, the team is a mess right now. Bacsik and Maholm would appear to be an easy over but I just can't say you can pull the trigger even if it Maholm. Pirates bats woke up for 1/2 an inning Saturday. Tough to bet either team and lay the juice on Maholm, but honestly if I picked a side it would have to be Pitt just of the fact that the Nats can't score.

col/hou - lopez took a beating last game but the colorado bats seem to have woken up again. I cant say you should back the astros, I am not a fan of them though... a little biased towards betting them as I usually fade them if I am involved in their games. And I would bet the Rockies tomorrow.

mil/chc - if you really want to back either pitcher... have fun. don't like either of them, but I'd go with mil. Bats are hot right now and don't think Marquis pitches nearly as well as he did last week. That late game collapse in game 1 seems to have fueled the Brewers today and they win the series Sunday.

Arz/SF - Have to go with OWINGS.

sd/lad - eh? not interested at all. toss up, just like the line says.


AL:

TB/Cle - If you want to pay juice, I'd go with cleveland. Shields has given up 5 or more runs in his last 3 starts and 2 HRs in 4 of his last 5 starts. OVER as well although Lee's been much better recently and has good career #'s vs the Indians.

min/det - can Minny get the sweep? I think so. Bonderman doesnt fare very well vs the Twins. Basically I wouldn't pay that much to back Bonderman.

oak/nyy - I have to agree with ETG here. 1st off Haren and Pettitte. That sums it up, 8.5 looks way too easy. Barrett is a good under ump, winds blowing out but 8 mph doesn't scare me. Haren's been a little more hittable lately but the Yanks cant hit much lately either. Pettitte has good #'s vs Oak and their bats can disappear very quickly.

LAA/Bal - two solid pitchers going toe to toe. Id have to go with Baltimore, Lackey been giving up more the past month. I feel like the Angels might be getting action tomorrow since they lost today. A win sunday = win the series. Id go with under but the baltimore pen and the ump aren't really favorable.

tex/bos - TEX, i'm guessing loe might be good now? but same thing with det, I wouldn't pay this much to back tavarez.

chw/kc - I'd back garland, he's just on a bad team. UNDER if Thomson can repeat his performance and also eddings calling the game.

tor/sea - Dream Weaver vs. Marcum... what do you do? no idea, marcum has been very good, i still can't accept the fact weaver is pitching well, haven't seen him pitch since the beginning of the year vs the Yankees. anyways McCelland is an over ump, #'s might not say it (record wise). I'd lean under don't know if I'd touch the game

there you go.

 

[hile75]

braves/marlins over jumps right off the page at me, without looking into it

 

[reNew Orleans]

Eckstein is supposed to return tomorrow.

like that game as well Satyr - SP is very good/underrated for Baltimore so you always like good dog value. Think there will be plenty of Angels backers tomorrow, atleast I hope so.

that total jumped out to me too Hile, but I've seen Diaz call some games that involved some pitchers that said over and didn't. It's an odd looking total if you ask me... especially with the Fish pen. but you are probably right since you hit 75% or something haha

 

[tuck321]

Regarding the Florida total, its easy to build a case either way. Lots of trends floating around here. One way of looking at it is just by looking at Willis at home recently. Last 20 home games you would cash the over on 4. I am looking at a frst half under 5 there but interested in humidity readings not currently available. GL

 

[Rug Rat]

"Atl/Fla - two pitchers here that make it appear that is should go over with ease, but Laz Diaz is an under ump so he might be generous. A warning to those playing the total in this game."

Actually when you look at HPU Diaz's O/U numbers, he's only 7-9 toward the under, which is really not that big of a difference either way.

 

[slim5150]

am in complete agreement on the Yankee under. Looking at Haren on the year, 11 of his 17 starts have gone under this number.

Haren has been in the dog role 3 times this year, first two games of the year @ LAA and @ Sea, and again vs Bedard and the O's at Camden. Out of sheer principle I am strongly considering taking Oakland and a quality pitcher at very nice odds. But would feel more comfortable playing it under.

Detroit minus a big bat in Sheff laying ridiculous odds to a good team. Figure some "no sweep" money will push this one higher.

I would have liked colorado better if they would have lost today.

If Bonds sits, I am really liking the Backs. If he plays, I like the over.

Germano is my Gil Meche of the young hurlers. I seem to be involved with every game he participates. I especially like ti since one year ago I would have been all over Bilingsly's perfect posted mark of 4-0 vs a new guy.

If you feel comfortable backing the bad Weaver, I qill ask you how that worked out at the end of the season. I am not buying his recent streak, and I use that term very loosely. Marcum has looked pretty good lately.

Thinkin hard about baltimore again. Florida too. I sure wish Dontrelle was on a better team. Much like I am glad Vlad got out of Canada. In time he will be somewhere where his talents can be utilized properly.

Let me see a little more of Maroth in the NL before I back him. Getting Eckstein back will only improve the Cards going forward. As if I needed to say that.

 

[tuck321]

Lets play x's and o's for a minute. X is 7-3 last 10 while 0 is 5-5. X has scored 65 runs last 10 while o has scored 40. The starter for x has faced o 3 times going 17.2 innings and given up 5 runs. O has faced x for 9.2 innings and has given up 8 runs. The starter for x has gotten an average of 7 runs a game last 3 starts. X is getting 62 cents currently at 5 d. The homeplate ump going back 5 years for teams in this range is 6-5 for the favorite. It mght not be a reach to say x is a live dog here. Another way of describing x is Texas.

 

[slim5150]

tuck, as Boston is priced out of my favorite range, I am automatically not going to play them. But that is beside the point. I need to do more of this line of thinking myself. SOmetimes, and I do mean sometimes as I am a rookie bettor, I let myself get enthralled by the name on the front of the jersey.

I am sure my initial card would look much different if I thought in these terms.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

In his last 10 starts, Shields has 1 win against a team w/a winning record, and that was a start in Tampa. His last 4 road games: 6.12 ERA/1.36 WHIP (3 of those vs NL teams, meaning he got to face the pitcher's batting spot. One can only wonder how much worse these figures would be otherwise). Tampa is 0-6 L6/2-9 L11/4-13 L17. 29th April the last time they recorded a road win against an AL team w/a winning record (and even then it was the light hitting A's).

CLE has won 3 straight Lee starts (2.77 ERA for his 2 home games amongst them), and he's not the POR for all 3 wins simply because the CLE pen gave up runs vs the A's, otherwise he would be. CLE is 4-1 in his 5 home starts this season, their only loss to Detroit (go figure - that team is 12-2 away during the time they recorded that win).

The Ump doesnt like narrow home favs (0-5), but does favour stronger home favs (-140+ 4-1)

Although the *obviousness* of the Tribe here would normally make me wary, the fact Detroit is stinking the joint up (4-10 last 14 at home), handing the Divisional lead to the Tribe, makes me think the Tribe - just getting back into some form again (9-4 last 13) after a patchy period (5-9) - arent yet in the mood to stumble to a bunch of losers at a venue they've been terrific at. Tampa 2+ months w/out a road win vs a good team, why do they start here?

Lee last season @home vs TBY: 9 inns, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 3 ER, 6-3 win

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BTW, for those interested:

Dogs are 23-13-1 (opening lines) the last 37 AL games

Favs are 23-10-1 (opening lines) the last 34 NL games

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

good thread.
i looked at the Rockies too...but they jsut don't win often against LHPs. And Wandy has thrown well at hoem this year...

 

[reNew Orleans]

"Atl/Fla - two pitchers here that make it appear that is should go over with ease, but Laz Diaz is an under ump so he might be generous. A warning to those playing the total in this game."

Actually when you look at HPU Diaz's O/U numbers, he's only 7-9 toward the under, which is really not that big of a difference either way.

I am talking about strike% called and past years, that was the whole basis of the "Club Member" thing shortline did was strikes% or strikes to balls called. not just O/U record. I have said that O/U records can be misleading especially earlier in the year.

 

[Troutman]

Yeah that guy calls almost 64% strikes which is really high, makes me think about an under as well...I could see this game being really one-sided either way.

 

[reNew Orleans]

NYM/PHI - should Pelfrey really be favored today? Kendrick might be a solid dog. Just my thought. He has received some major run support in his 3 starts this year. OVER 10.5?

 

[Man on Fire]

No Willits for LAA and no Hernandez for O's. The under looks more appealing now. Last time they playe the game ended 3-2 with Lackey/Cabrera. Guthrie seems to be better than Cabrera.

 

[Dmoney416]

I don't see much here. My huge slump continues and my confidence is shot right now. I am going to take a break - I'll be back in a week or two.

GL to everyone today.