Sunday Dec 28 thoughts/plays

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
WARNING RANT ABOUT YESTERDAY- NO ACTUAL INFO ON THIS PARAGRAPH. horrible horrible day yesterday. Honestly in my opinion the worst one decision making wise all yr for me. Initally liked Houston/Milw/NJ while expecting Houston to be -6, Milwaukee -2, Jersey +4. I got a late line in Jersey ML and thus lowered my profit, and Milwaukee and Houston came out WAY higher than I expected, so I planned to just play each one for 1 unit. After some reading around and liking more, I played each one 2 units, which is big mess up number 1. Go out for brunch and my friend asks me what I'm playin, I tell him and he says his local has Milwaukee -4 and Houston -5. I jumped out of my seat made him make sure of everything and was in awe so added 3 units on houston and 1 unit on Milwaukee. Initially I told myself if Houston was -5 or better I'd go 3 units, but now I had 5 units down. Milwaukee, I said if it was plus money I'd go 3 units, -2 or lower- 2 units, any worse- 1 unit. I ended up having fuckin 3 units on a horrible line. Then sweat thru double OT to be up 7 and have alston miss another FT, then sloan call a timeout for a quick 2 and no foul to give me a push on -5. Worst part:My laptop has been broken, and today after the games my friend came and fixed it. I wento my excell sheet with power ratings and line setters which I use as a tool to ensure I at least don't bet completely unreasonable lines, and my lines are: Milwaukee -.5 (yet I played -6) and Houston -4. omg so lost 3.28 units but felt like 10DONE WITH RANT

Sorry I couldn't respond to posts yesterday as I was out. Thanks to everyone for the good lucks and such
JPICKS: Thanks. I feel (although yesterday was a horrible display of it) that I have really improved my MM, in huge thanks to this forum. I also feel my ability to find spots has really improved, and feel I've learned a lot from your writeups and killa's often sarcastic writeups. I'm surprised you remember my 2 yrs ago UNREAL run (recap: I'm a college student that turned 1K into 100K then back down to about 45k to end the yr- in large part because of homerism and Warrior's sick ATS run to get into and thru the 1st rd of the playoffs- then the losing over 50% thanks in large part to Utah that yr, now I'm betting about 100-300 a game, lol) Hopefully I can continue to improve, as soon

YTD: 2-2
-3.2796
:hang:
FG Sides: 1-2
FG Totals: 0-0
1st H sides: 1-0
1st H totals: 0-0
2nd H sides: 0-0
2nd H totals: 0-0

now onto today's games:
Boston -12.5- 1.05 units to win .9545 W
2nd H Lakers -7 -115- 1.08 units to win .9391

ytd 4-2
-1.386
- that's sad...
 
Last edited:
my power ratings (not taking into acct a lot of recent injuries) are showing:

Denver -5.5
Dallas -2 (expecting more though)
New Orleans -2.5 (also expecting more- I recently moved NO down)
Cleveland -11.5
Boston -12
Lakers -15.5

notable questionable players: q rich, melo, dirk?, Peja, Granger, Ford, Monta :)
 
Denver @ New York
small small lean New York. Off the horrible loss to the Wolves, and on a 5 game lose streak. Denver feeling pretty decently about themselves I'm sure after overcoming the 17 pt 3rd Q deficit. Not sure Denver is looking ahead to Atlanta since imo despite playing greatly, the Hawks havnt received that kind of respect from teams yet, especially not in the west. 1st game of a little road trip for Denver, so unsure if they try to make this game a statement game or look past the knicks. Don't think too many teams look past playing at NY just because its the garden. However, small lean NY because all I'm reading thru the papers is talks of them having not played hard enough. Duhon called out Harrington/Robinson, and I know Hrrington is the type to respond on the court with his performance. Early start for Denver may also be a problem. May just sit this one out, but think NY brings a pretty good effort here
 
Dallas @ LA Clippers
Randolph is hurt and Q, and I think Camby is playing as he missed cuz family death last week. Why does it seem like the clippers are ALWAYS injured, year after year. Imagine if Z and Camby are out. That means Kaman, Z, and Camby all out, leaving um Skinner and rookie deandre jordan as their front court? I know you couldn't bet on injuries, but at some point it becomes ridiculous. However, clips been playing Dallas pretty tough with their 1st W over Dallas, and ALMOST beating them before barea broke their heart in a crazy comeback. Maybe a payback revenge game form the clips, but they have lost a lot, so dunno how much revenge they can have. Last game of a roadie for Dallas, but off the loss to shorthanded Utah so their focus may be there pissed off. Looks like Dirk will play and wont get suspended. So waiting for Randolph/Camby's status and the line, but small lean Dallas with no game 2m, an easy part of their schedule starting today, and off an ugly loss.

"We just didn’t have energy tonight," Jason Kidd said. "We came out flat and for some odd reason we just couldn’t get it going."
"Any time you come out flat you’re disappointed," Howard said.

looks like they may come out firing hard. Any trend guys can give a suggestion regarding Dallas 1st H?
 
Really liking Indiana if players are in
Indiana real underrated at home. Home games:
beat boston handily, lose by 10 to phoenix (up at HT, amare goes for 50ish), beat Jersey, beat OKC, lost by 2 to Philly (game they were up 26 then lost it at the end), beat Atlanta, lost in OT by 2 to Orlando, Lost in OT to Charlotte, beat LA at the buzzer, lost to Boston in OT, beat GS, lost to CLippers in doub OT, lost at the buzzer to NJ.
Thats not bad- the only game they lost and were beat ok was vs Phoenix, but that needed 50 from amare, and a huge momentum shift. They've been competitive at home, which is shaded by 4 losses at home in OT, and 2 losses nearly at the buzzer. thats 6 close ass losses in 7 of their home losses.
RECAP: INDIANA NOT BAD AT HOME

On the other side, I'm completely unimpressed with what New Orleans has been bringing. Maybe its peja missing but their offense has looked dead. Yes they beat Houston, but that was such a shit spot for Hosuton, and New Orleans actually didn't do nearly as well as they could've.

If Granger and TJ are in, I'll likely be on Indiana plus whatever the points will be. Hop[efully Peja misses as well. Not much more than I think tis an underrated quad thats solid at home, vs a team that I think just doesnt have it together. No real motivation for either squad, unless maybe Indiana considers NO top competition, and Indiana brings it against top competition. One thing that I hate is Indiana's inability to defend power forwards, in come david west. Will see
 
bleh looks like Rndolph is probable. I'm gonna sleep for a bit until the mornin game, as none of the DD lines excite me much
 
Atlanta is not a look ahead. Atlanta is a we are probably going to lose there so we need to win at NY for Denver. Issue is will they as Knicks have not been bad in the day but recently look pitiful.
 
i lean to your indy play, I like th eove rin that game. indy will push tempo at home, think N.O. will play along with the tempo, its a matter of they can get their offense going but indy's d is soft so they should get a lot of open looks..this is sitting at 196 for me,, i was thinking it would be at 200.. will see what injury reports are out there..
 
good article that makes me feel flip flop on New Orleans

http://www.nola.com/hornets/t-p/index.ssf?/base/sports-3/1230490928263990.xml&coll=1&thispage=2

"We should be able to do this every game," Hornets center Tyson Chandler said. "It's the effort; to consistently come in every night and give this effort. Coach has said it. Every game is an important game, not just the so-called 'big ones.' That's the attitude we've got to bring.
"You have to look at your record, look at the standings, and see where we're at. (Indiana) is a huge game for us. We understand what our schedule is. We've got Indiana, then Washington, then a very tough (Western Conference) road trip (games at Portland, Denver, the Lakers and Utah). We can't afford to give any of these games away."
Forward David West said he doesn't share the opinion that the Hornets' effort has, at times, been scant. Rather, he thinks, it has been the opponents who have dictated pace, tempo and defensive schemes that have overshadowed what the Hornets have done.
 
quickly about the other games:

if this game was at miami than the other at cleveland, I would take Miami +points thinkin cleve;land will just walk thru knoweing if anything happens they can get revenge day after. Especially after that scare to washington, cleveland may 1) do the same thing- just walk thru 1st H then try take over when it matters or 2) be pissed about letting their guard down and bring their A game. I'm not sure, but I tend to think Bron will perform against another superstar, so I'll stay off as I dont want to lay 11.5 unless its an amazing spot
 
both the warriors and the lakers can have hangovers from beating boston, so I guess taking the points makes sense, but its ok.

I'll wait for Boston to destroy a team before I bet them again. They may be having the mid-season slump after LA beat them. They really don't have much to prove or reason to bring it every night. they've been bringing intensity to every game so far this season, and it could stop/might not. I'll watch and learn
 
blehh. thinking it over, too many ? for me on this Indi game. I do think New Orleans brings it hard this game, but Indiana has been tough as hell at home esp against the western elite. maybe if this line takes a big jump I'll look at Pacers, but I think for now I'll sit out leaving me with a big thread and no plays
 
little bit of an action play, but mostly the LA loss was emotionally draining. I see Boston being fired up to get back on the winning end, and with no real defensive or offensive threat in Sac, I see a blowout- one in which Boston keeps htie rfoot on the throat as a lesson from the GS game

Boston -12.5- 1.05 units to win .9545
 
dammit, stayed off Indiana but wow. its unbelievable how many close games and heartbreakers they lose at home. sick:
4 OT losses, 2 2 pt losses, 1 buzzer beater 1 pt loss. 1 10 pt loss but led by DD and had amare erupt on them
-thats all their home losses
 
my power ratings (not taking into acct situations/recent injuries)
Atlanta -.5
NJ -3
Orlando -3
Minnesota -1.5
Phoenix -5.5
Houston -11
Utah -10.5
GS -1.5


couple short thoughts for 2m:
Denver @ Atlanta
-why not continue to take Atlanta. Last game of their home stand, and Id imagine they want to end it on a high note. may be a lookahead to indi who beat them but dont think so. Denver on a b2b off running with the knicks, so lean Denver as I likely often will at a short number vs elite teams

Orlando @ detroit
definitely lean Orlando and will be on them unless they throw some ridiculous number like -6.5. no reason needed mroe than playoff revenge and improved play of orlando vs declined play of detroit.

chicago @ jersey
first look obviously chicago to fade jersey at home. however, gooden out is HUGE and deng out hurts as well. it'll be battle of the guards- a battle I think Jersey wins. Maybe if I can get under 5 I'll lay points with jersey at home :( I mean its gotta get to them some time of why they suck at home and itll soon be extra motivation for them at home

memphis at minny
uhh i guess gun to head memphis justo tpo fade minny. Memphis got SA, Phoenix, and Dallas after this before a rematch at memphis. so Memphis could be lookin ahead to preserve energy for home game vs phoenix 2m and if anything revenge at home in a week, but since they're a bad team, I tend to think they'll go hard to try to get this one to avoid a 5 game lose streak

Phoenix at OKC
line looks too big, but phoenix is off a bad loss and may want take pain out on OKC. hjowever, if this gets to DD, you almost HAVE to take the points

Wash at Houston
small lean to wash/wash 1st H thinking houston has a hangover off the big W. Want to see butler in. Wash to begin a 5 game stretch of tough ass games. maybe they'll try to steal one. actually like 1st H a bit more- trend guys?

Philly at Utah
tough game without looking much. utah gonna be without both stud PFs. Okur is ? off the doub OT, likely will try to be more aggresive. Philly after hangin tough in loss at Denver with a bit more rest. if they lose this one, gonna look at them at LAC as their only shot for a W this roadie

Toronto at GS
GS rested starters at the end today to prep for today. Toronto's last game of the road trip so liking GS a little bit. GS actually looked half decent despite getting killed by LAL. Don't like Kapono and co. and the shooting thatll kill GS's weak ass zone, or Oneal/Bosh, so matchup wise, Toronto has an edge. But stil; lean to GS taking this one
 
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