Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Rant first. I took Florida last night. Enough said. Ryan Zimmermann and incredible last frame fucked my 5 team parlay for a massive payout. Let's try to wash out the bitter taste that's left after last night, shall we.
Red Sox (RL) (1.84 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
I never thought I'd say that but Josh Beckett actually looks like an ace this year. 7-2, 2.51 ERA and these guys are scoring for him. He seems to have overcome the woes he had last year when road starts are concerned, even though Fenway is still his number one park hands down, he has excelled as a road warrior as well this year. One of those solid road starts was at Camden Yards on April 26, improving to 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore in a strong 8 inning performance.
So far in 2007 Beckett has surrendered two home runs in 46 2-3 innings, and ranks high in all pitching categories.
Some might argue that these numbers will surely regress, as there's only one way to go from 7-0, 2.51 ERA, and that's downhill. But I would say, if you're looking to fade Josh Beckett, do it in one of his road starts, not at home. He's just too confident and too good at Fenway, and I sincerely doubt he'll be rocked tonight but Tejada and co.
Boston and Baltimore are tied at 1 for the series (Boston leads season series 3-1), this should be another dominant start for the Red Sox in front of their fans.
I know it's hard to expect another trashing after last night's 13-4, but Boston are arguably the best team in baseball right now, and they have a lot of power and talent in the stock, for example their main hitters Ortiz and Ramirez still aren't on top of their game, I would expect Crisp and Drew to step up as well. Julio Lugo and Kevin Youkilis, on the other hand, are both killing the ball right now.
On the other side, Baltimore are a sub .500 team. They have considerable talent and depth, but they are owned by these Sox and I don't see them snatching a win here. It perhaps isn't the best thing to have a worn out bullpen when you have a game at Fenway coming up (128 IP for Baltimore relievers this year, compared to Boston's 87). Also to add to that, they have Jaret Wright on the injury list and will send out Jeremy Guthrie (2-1, 4.64 ERA) instead. Guthrie beat the Devil Rays in a dominant outing, as he allowed one run and six hits in six innings, throwing 46 of his 67 pitches for strikes.
Tampa Bay are another story, start at Fenway against one of the hottest lineups in baseball featuring their top pitcher...well you figure it out.
White Sox (Vasquez) (-2/adjusted runline) (2.32 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
OVER 8.5 runs (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Again adjusting the runline for a better price. The thing is, these White Sox bats are too inconsistent, and they still cannot be fully trusted. Their hitting with runners on was far superior in previous seasons, they used to kill the opposition by cleaning the bases with ease. Now there are glimpses of their top game, but lacking that killing consistency, whether it's Dye, Konerko or someone else we're talking about. They're still missing Jim Thome, but to be honest they have more than enough big bats in their lineup to be underperforming like this.
I know Vasquez is prone to letdowns, trust me, I've learned that over the years. Vasquez (2-1, 3.52 ERA) has already had that stinker against KC and I'm thinking he used it up for this part of year. Vasquez pitched a no decision in White Sox's 9-7 win at Kansas City on April 24, when he allowed a season-high five runs in six innings.
But that was at Kansas, and while Vasquez is a more reliable pitcher at home than on the road, KC hitters also have home-road discrepancy when offensive production is concerned.
Jorge De La Rosa is arguably KC's top pitcher, alongside Gil Meche, but his numbers are somewhat deceiving, in order to see the real deal you have to scratch under the surface. He is 3-3, 4.06 ERA this year, and 2.39 ERA at home, but is abysmal on the road, 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA in three starts.
His curveball isn't as effective as in April and the best proof of that was the defeat against Oakland, when he allowed season highs of six runs and 10 hits in just 4 1-3 innings of work.
I'm aware these Sox bats are aching a bit, but they need to vent out somewhere, and since they barely won last night, I'm thinking this one could be a far better performance, considering the situation.
As I said yesterday, I'm not looking for CWS merely to win, I'm expecting a beating. Also the over seems to be a bit too low, considering both these pitchers can let in more than a few, primarily De La Rosa.
I'm expecting a 9-4 win for the Sox.
I'll post one or two more plays shortly. :cheers:
Red Sox (RL) (1.84 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
I never thought I'd say that but Josh Beckett actually looks like an ace this year. 7-2, 2.51 ERA and these guys are scoring for him. He seems to have overcome the woes he had last year when road starts are concerned, even though Fenway is still his number one park hands down, he has excelled as a road warrior as well this year. One of those solid road starts was at Camden Yards on April 26, improving to 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore in a strong 8 inning performance.
So far in 2007 Beckett has surrendered two home runs in 46 2-3 innings, and ranks high in all pitching categories.
Some might argue that these numbers will surely regress, as there's only one way to go from 7-0, 2.51 ERA, and that's downhill. But I would say, if you're looking to fade Josh Beckett, do it in one of his road starts, not at home. He's just too confident and too good at Fenway, and I sincerely doubt he'll be rocked tonight but Tejada and co.
Boston and Baltimore are tied at 1 for the series (Boston leads season series 3-1), this should be another dominant start for the Red Sox in front of their fans.
I know it's hard to expect another trashing after last night's 13-4, but Boston are arguably the best team in baseball right now, and they have a lot of power and talent in the stock, for example their main hitters Ortiz and Ramirez still aren't on top of their game, I would expect Crisp and Drew to step up as well. Julio Lugo and Kevin Youkilis, on the other hand, are both killing the ball right now.
On the other side, Baltimore are a sub .500 team. They have considerable talent and depth, but they are owned by these Sox and I don't see them snatching a win here. It perhaps isn't the best thing to have a worn out bullpen when you have a game at Fenway coming up (128 IP for Baltimore relievers this year, compared to Boston's 87). Also to add to that, they have Jaret Wright on the injury list and will send out Jeremy Guthrie (2-1, 4.64 ERA) instead. Guthrie beat the Devil Rays in a dominant outing, as he allowed one run and six hits in six innings, throwing 46 of his 67 pitches for strikes.
Tampa Bay are another story, start at Fenway against one of the hottest lineups in baseball featuring their top pitcher...well you figure it out.
White Sox (Vasquez) (-2/adjusted runline) (2.32 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
OVER 8.5 runs (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Again adjusting the runline for a better price. The thing is, these White Sox bats are too inconsistent, and they still cannot be fully trusted. Their hitting with runners on was far superior in previous seasons, they used to kill the opposition by cleaning the bases with ease. Now there are glimpses of their top game, but lacking that killing consistency, whether it's Dye, Konerko or someone else we're talking about. They're still missing Jim Thome, but to be honest they have more than enough big bats in their lineup to be underperforming like this.
I know Vasquez is prone to letdowns, trust me, I've learned that over the years. Vasquez (2-1, 3.52 ERA) has already had that stinker against KC and I'm thinking he used it up for this part of year. Vasquez pitched a no decision in White Sox's 9-7 win at Kansas City on April 24, when he allowed a season-high five runs in six innings.
But that was at Kansas, and while Vasquez is a more reliable pitcher at home than on the road, KC hitters also have home-road discrepancy when offensive production is concerned.
Jorge De La Rosa is arguably KC's top pitcher, alongside Gil Meche, but his numbers are somewhat deceiving, in order to see the real deal you have to scratch under the surface. He is 3-3, 4.06 ERA this year, and 2.39 ERA at home, but is abysmal on the road, 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA in three starts.
His curveball isn't as effective as in April and the best proof of that was the defeat against Oakland, when he allowed season highs of six runs and 10 hits in just 4 1-3 innings of work.
I'm aware these Sox bats are aching a bit, but they need to vent out somewhere, and since they barely won last night, I'm thinking this one could be a far better performance, considering the situation.
As I said yesterday, I'm not looking for CWS merely to win, I'm expecting a beating. Also the over seems to be a bit too low, considering both these pitchers can let in more than a few, primarily De La Rosa.
I'm expecting a 9-4 win for the Sox.
I'll post one or two more plays shortly. :cheers:
illow:
if you don't intend on covering the -2 RL then don't come back at all 
