sunday Bases w/writeups.....

[YesSir]

MLB 2007

44-24-3 (+59.1 UNITS)​

***all plays are based on 4 units unless other wise noted***

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OK this has been popular question..."Why do you post this at the top of your thread? Why don't you make your units 1 instead of 4? There are a few reasons why I do this: 1) For what I am betting, it is easier for me to keep track of and translate to cash- for my records. 2) 4 units is not the only ammount that I play on the game. 4 units is probably about the average I play on a game. I do not want to mess with decimals into the hundreths so I just usually play an even number ammount of units. 3) I post it, so when you look at my record with units, you realize that I usually play 4 units on each play. Therefore my Units could move a lot in one night 4) Right now I am only playing a few games a day. As the season wears on, I will play more games...sometimes I will forget to put units so I will always have that as backup- for those not familiar with my plays.

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Games that I post the night before, usually will use stats prior to that night's games. I do take into effect(in my thougth process) what transpired that night.​

SD/COL UNDER 10 (8.8-8)

LAA/SEA OVER 9.5 (8.8-8)

MINNY -145

ATL/NYM OVER 8.5

 

[Satyr]

we're waiting for tha plays playa

GL :cheers:

 

[YesSir]

Baseball is such a grueling season...Yesterday I went 2-2 and should have been 4-0 IMO. The Indians booted the ball all around the infield and gave up 3 unearned in the one inning. Another play that the Rays scored on could have been called an error also. I really do not call it a moose though- As defense is an important part of capping...and the Tribe is consistantly at the bottom of the league- I just hate losing that way. My other game was the under in the La/Pitt game. 3-2 with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth(something like that). HR is hit to send the game into extra innings. GS in extras pushes the game way over the total- but hey thats baseball.....

Onto today:

I see a lot of value on this card. I see 2 totals that I am hitting pretty hard:

SD/COL UNDER 10 (8.8-8)

10! Are you serious, 10? I am waiting for Ashton to pop out and say we are getting punked here. How is this game slated higher than 9? Is it because of Coors Field?

Greg Maddux will be on the bump for SD. He is quietly, starting to put together another great season. His command and control is still right on point. He comes in after 3 starts with a 3.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.164! Since 97 he has a 4.32 ERA and a WHIP of 1.245 against Colorado...

Jason Hirsh will also get his fourth start of the season. He comes in with a 3.37 ERA and a WHIP of 1.232! In his 10.7 innings against SD, he has given up 5 runs. He has a career 4.22 ERA against the Pads...

So both of these pitchers have solid numbers and decent pasts against these teams...why is the price on the total jacked then? It has to be the offenses...lets take a look

Colorado is hittin .244 against lefties and is averaging 3.7 runs per game. San Diego, surprisingly has been hitting the ball well this year. They are getting 4.6 per game and 5.2 on the road. They are only averaging 4.4 against righties though.

How are the staffs? Both teams have excellent stats as a staff this year. Colorado is giving up 4.7 runs per for the season- they are averaging 3.7 per themselves. At home they are giving up 6 per and scoring 4 per....San Diego only gives up 3.9 per game and scores 4.6...On the road this escalates to giving up 4.7 per and scoring 5.2...

L7?
This is where many of the over backers seem to be feasting on....SD is giving up 5.6 per in their L7 and are scoring 6 per.... COL is giving up 6.4 but are only scoring 3 per...

So what does all this mean?
I like the under for a few reasons....when you get a total this high BOTH teams need to hit. Sure you can have a 9-2 game but I dont think it is likely that a team gets 9 in this game. So we have 2 "decent"(and I use that lightly) staffs with 2 solid starters. Say that Maddux gives up 4 runs in 5 innings and gets pulled- well then you get the SD pen that is very good. Also, I do not see both starters getting shelled in this game....

5-2

BOL will have more in a second:cheers:

 

[YesSir]

we're waiting for tha plays playa

GL :cheers:

Something is wrong with my intro shit- I can only type in bold when I copy and past that...sorry

:cheers:

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

gl Sir

 

[jimbof20]

sounds good.. I like that over too....

 

[YesSir]

LAA/SEA OVER 9.5 (8.8-8)

Well I see this going in the opposite that my first game (huh?)...You have Weaver on the mound in a total under double digits?!? When that is the case you must look hard at the over.

Jeff Weaver gets his third start of the season. He is coming off some spectacular starts (insert lie icon here)...In 8 innings of work he has given up 14 runs and 17 hits! He has a solid 2.5 WHIP! He has had some quality starts against LAA...The thing here is the last one was in 2005, when he was not what he is now....lol

Ervin Santana will get the rock for the fourth time this year. He started off with a solid start but has struggled in his L2. He is only averaging 5.1 innings per start! Santana comes in with a lifetime 6.56 ERA against the Mariners. He started two games against SEA last year. He went 7 innings, giving up 2 ER...and went 8 innings giving up 6 earned(wasnt there a late GS in that game?)....

Hitters?

Both teams have been below average on the offensive side this year. I think both team have enough talent to score some runs though(what team in the MLB doesnt?). LAA is only averaging 3.5 runs per game. At home they are hitting .306 and averaging 4.8 though! Seattle is only averaging 4 per on the road. OVERall they are getting 4.8 across. In their L7 SEA is averaging 6+ per...

Bullpens?
Well since niether of these pitcher have been lasting long this year, what is behind them? SEA comes in with a 4.60 ERA which soars to 6.75 on the road (12 innings). LAA has a 5.25 ERA that drops to 4.15 at home.

I think both offenses will do their share of work today...I really do not expect to see 4 or 5 run innings BUT I do think both teams will put together 1 and 2 run innings consistantly. There has be 12 and 13 runs scored in the first two....The pens have been used and will be used again today IMO....8-4


BOL all....will be back in a second:cheers:

 

[YesSir]

MINNESOTA -145

 

[YesSir]

ATL/NYM OVER 8.5

No time for writeup but would lean at ATL here too....they have mashed against Glavine in the past



RECAP:

SD/COL UNDER 10 (8.8-8)

LAA/SEA OVER 9.5 (8.8-8)

MINNY -145

ATL/NYM OVER 8.5

 

[Satyr]

I like the over in LAA-SEA game and would take it but I just love Santana to pitch a gem tonight so I can't take the over anyways .

GL buddy. :cheers:

 

[YesSir]

Thanks Satyr, good luck today

 

[cogenman]

good luck yessir. your quietly tearing it up. if you had your record on the title of the thread like other people do, you'd be getting big time props. but you'll also get the haters too. followed you alot last year in college football too on covers, keep it up.

 

[YesSir]

gl Sir

TY Grind...GL to you also
:cheers:

sounds good.. I like that over too....

Sure:down:

good luck yessir. your quietly tearing it up. if you had your record on the title of the thread like other people do, you'd be getting big time props. but you'll also get the haters too. followed you alot last year in college football too on covers, keep it up.

Thanks bro...not really worried about the props...just on here to share info and discuss sports...Wait to CFB this year on this site...best cappers/discussion for CFB and probably all sports...GL today bro:cheers: