Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
AKA, Correction Sunday!
Why? Because the road teams have dominated the first two days of the weekend. (Despite Memorial Day, all but one series ends on Sunday btw.) Road sweeps are an improbability. 4 game sweeps are an improbability. W/out being a statistics major...having 8 (of 15) series where one of these very two things apply to today has gotta be a tremendous statistical improbability. And quite frankly, it's got me a little wet.
As some of you may know...i almost always play against the 4 game sweep, and i almost always play against a home team getting swept in a 3 game series. And i seriously can't recall a day where there have been so many of these situations. It's got me all giddy inside...like a Tijuana whorehouse, where the choices seem endless on a Satuday nite.
Some of you may think it's crazy...but just wait until you see how the games play out today. We all pretty much cap the games in a similar fashion, or so i believe...but just because you got a winner "on paper," doesn't mean you're gonna cash the thing. All i'm saying is tread carefully going against these situations. Because despite how it may look, on paper, i definitely got the law of averages on my side today.
Skipped/missed Saturday's card completely. Got home from the office Friday night, and just crashed. Needed a day (night) off though...
My last plays were on Friday...where i went 2-2, breaking even for the day.
YTD: 122-86, +34.615 units...Parlays: 1-4, -.468 of a unit.
So onto this Sunday card. It's already my largest card of the season, in terms of # of games played. Got all 8 of the aforementioned situations played...and threw in two more for kicks...so far.
ATL ML (+111) over PHI for 3/4 unit
Hamels against Davies. Playing the Bravos to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. Bravos typically have a lot of success against the Phils...though Davies sure doesn't.
FLA ML (+112) over NYM for 3/4 unit
Sosa against Olsen. Playing the Fish to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. Olsen's actually got some decent #'s against the Mutts.
CIN ML (-117) over PIT for 3/4 unit
Duke against Sarloos. This is one that doesn't apply, as it's only game three of four in the series. Bucs have taken the first two though...and if Cincy doesn't bounce back at home today, i'll jsut double up on them for Monday.
SF RL -1.5 over COL (+130) for 3/4 unit
Buchholtz against Lowry. Playing the Giants to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. And with Buchholtz going for the Rockies...even w/out Bonds, it's a huge SP advantage.
HOU ML (-135) over AZ for 1 unit
Oswalt against Hernandez. Playing the Stros to avoid getting swept in a 4 game road series. Got the SP advantage here...plus, before this series, the Stros have played the D'Backs pretty damn well historically.
NYY RL -1.5 over LAA (+150) for 3/4 unit
Lackey against Mussina. Playing the Yanks to avoid getting swept at home...by the only AL team that has a winning record against them in the Torre era. Lackey's #'s against the Yanks aren't that good...where Mussina's got pretty good #'s against the Halos. But before ya think it's the Halos that got all the value...take a look at that Torre era. Even though the Halos got a winning record, the one team that can make that claim, how many sweeps do you see? Yep, it's always 2 of 3, or 2 and 2 in a 4 gamer...not a sweep.
OAK ML (-104) over BAL for 1 unit
Blanton against Cabrera. This is the other game that doesn't apply. But the A's historical dominance of the the O's, especially at Camden Yards, couldn't keep me away from backing them to take the rubber game of this series.
KC ML (+120) over SEA for 3/4 unit
Washburn against Perez. Playing the Royals to avoid getting swept at home. Hell, it was jsut a series ago (against the Tribe) where we were all giving them props. They'll bounce back, against the hot M's...in the midst of a long roadie.
TX ML (+117) over BOS for 3/4 unit
Taverez against Loe. Playing the Rangers to avoid getting swept at home by the BoSox...who they have had some decent success against in the past. At least they get the weakest link in the rotation today.
DET ML (-104) over CLE for 3/4 unit
Carmona against Maroth. Playing the Tigers to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. Gotta ask yourself...the hot, young Carmona...against Maroth, the soft-throwing sloth...and it's basically even money. WTF? But the Tribe still can't hit LHPs, and the Tigers don't get swept at home...not on Sunday night baseball.
Look at all those home doggies. And take a look at all these teams trying to avoid getting swept at home today...and the one trying to avoid getting swept in the 4 game series on the road. Never seen anything like today, in terms of the frequency of this type of thing.
Anyways, i can't avoid this kinda shit. As someone else used to say, at another location...joooooocey. But that's why i've already got 10 plays made for today...and that's why Sunday is gonna be a helluva fun, winning day.
BOL, and enjoy it. :cheers:
i'm still capping a few more games, so additions are still a possability.
Why? Because the road teams have dominated the first two days of the weekend. (Despite Memorial Day, all but one series ends on Sunday btw.) Road sweeps are an improbability. 4 game sweeps are an improbability. W/out being a statistics major...having 8 (of 15) series where one of these very two things apply to today has gotta be a tremendous statistical improbability. And quite frankly, it's got me a little wet.
As some of you may know...i almost always play against the 4 game sweep, and i almost always play against a home team getting swept in a 3 game series. And i seriously can't recall a day where there have been so many of these situations. It's got me all giddy inside...like a Tijuana whorehouse, where the choices seem endless on a Satuday nite.
Some of you may think it's crazy...but just wait until you see how the games play out today. We all pretty much cap the games in a similar fashion, or so i believe...but just because you got a winner "on paper," doesn't mean you're gonna cash the thing. All i'm saying is tread carefully going against these situations. Because despite how it may look, on paper, i definitely got the law of averages on my side today.
Skipped/missed Saturday's card completely. Got home from the office Friday night, and just crashed. Needed a day (night) off though...
My last plays were on Friday...where i went 2-2, breaking even for the day.
YTD: 122-86, +34.615 units...Parlays: 1-4, -.468 of a unit.
So onto this Sunday card. It's already my largest card of the season, in terms of # of games played. Got all 8 of the aforementioned situations played...and threw in two more for kicks...so far.
ATL ML (+111) over PHI for 3/4 unit
Hamels against Davies. Playing the Bravos to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. Bravos typically have a lot of success against the Phils...though Davies sure doesn't.
FLA ML (+112) over NYM for 3/4 unit
Sosa against Olsen. Playing the Fish to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. Olsen's actually got some decent #'s against the Mutts.
CIN ML (-117) over PIT for 3/4 unit
Duke against Sarloos. This is one that doesn't apply, as it's only game three of four in the series. Bucs have taken the first two though...and if Cincy doesn't bounce back at home today, i'll jsut double up on them for Monday.
SF RL -1.5 over COL (+130) for 3/4 unit
Buchholtz against Lowry. Playing the Giants to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. And with Buchholtz going for the Rockies...even w/out Bonds, it's a huge SP advantage.
HOU ML (-135) over AZ for 1 unit
Oswalt against Hernandez. Playing the Stros to avoid getting swept in a 4 game road series. Got the SP advantage here...plus, before this series, the Stros have played the D'Backs pretty damn well historically.
NYY RL -1.5 over LAA (+150) for 3/4 unit
Lackey against Mussina. Playing the Yanks to avoid getting swept at home...by the only AL team that has a winning record against them in the Torre era. Lackey's #'s against the Yanks aren't that good...where Mussina's got pretty good #'s against the Halos. But before ya think it's the Halos that got all the value...take a look at that Torre era. Even though the Halos got a winning record, the one team that can make that claim, how many sweeps do you see? Yep, it's always 2 of 3, or 2 and 2 in a 4 gamer...not a sweep.
OAK ML (-104) over BAL for 1 unit
Blanton against Cabrera. This is the other game that doesn't apply. But the A's historical dominance of the the O's, especially at Camden Yards, couldn't keep me away from backing them to take the rubber game of this series.
KC ML (+120) over SEA for 3/4 unit
Washburn against Perez. Playing the Royals to avoid getting swept at home. Hell, it was jsut a series ago (against the Tribe) where we were all giving them props. They'll bounce back, against the hot M's...in the midst of a long roadie.
TX ML (+117) over BOS for 3/4 unit
Taverez against Loe. Playing the Rangers to avoid getting swept at home by the BoSox...who they have had some decent success against in the past. At least they get the weakest link in the rotation today.
DET ML (-104) over CLE for 3/4 unit
Carmona against Maroth. Playing the Tigers to avoid getting swept at home by a division rival. Gotta ask yourself...the hot, young Carmona...against Maroth, the soft-throwing sloth...and it's basically even money. WTF? But the Tribe still can't hit LHPs, and the Tigers don't get swept at home...not on Sunday night baseball.
Look at all those home doggies. And take a look at all these teams trying to avoid getting swept at home today...and the one trying to avoid getting swept in the 4 game series on the road. Never seen anything like today, in terms of the frequency of this type of thing.
Anyways, i can't avoid this kinda shit. As someone else used to say, at another location...joooooocey. But that's why i've already got 10 plays made for today...and that's why Sunday is gonna be a helluva fun, winning day.
BOL, and enjoy it. :cheers:
i'm still capping a few more games, so additions are still a possability.
