Game 4 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Game 3 Takeaways
After running out of steam in the fourth quarter, the Knicks lost by five, barely hanging on for the cover.
Let's recognize what it took for them to stay within five.
As a team, they shot 51.9 percent from behind the arc. They made 14 threes.
Donte DiVincenzo had one of his highest-scoring performances of this season.
Whereas the Knicks shot over ten percent above their average from behind the arc, the Pacers shot around their average.
Obi Toppin and T.J. McConnell had disappointing games.
Change and Continuity
These are all occurrences that will not continue: DiVincenzo will fall back to Earth, as will New York's three-point shooting.
Moreover, Indiana will get more from its bench. Toppin and McConnell were both very productive in New York, and yet supporting casts tend to do better at home.
Pascal Siakam
Skeptics might point out that Pascal Siakam's Game 3 performance was anomalous.
But there is a reason for Siakam's improved offensive output.
OG Anunoby is well-known as a terrific defender, so Siakam faced much less resistance with him absent.
Because Anunoby is out again for Game 4, I expect Siakam to continue to thrive, as he also did in the first round.
Missing Anunoby
My main issue with Anunoby's absence is that the Knicks simply lack scorers.
Without them being able to make threes at an unsustainable rate, I don't understand how they will make it past 100 points.
Yes, Indiana's defense is bad, but the Pacers also held a Milwaukee team with Damian Lillard to below 100 points at home.
The Knicks lack the firepower to break 100 points especially in Indiana.
Indiana's depth and overall scoring quality will be too much for the Knicks.
Best Bet: Pacers -5.5 at -110 with BetOnline & Knicks under 105.5 points at -105 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City's young mega-talent experienced a learning lesson in Game 3.
Whereas veteran Kyrie Irving showed composure down the stretch, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bricked shots, made bad passes, and cost his team points by foul-baiting.
In a close game, specifically in a close fourth quarter, Gilgeous-Alexander is going to show more composure.
He had a terrific game overall, scoring 31 points, but his inexperience down the stretch cost his team the game and the cover.
My point is that he can clearly succeed against this Mavs defense. He just needs to learn from what transpired in the final stages of Game 3.
More Offense
A higher shooting volume from Chet Holmgren, whose versatility should bother Dallas' defense, should lead him to replicate his Game 1 scoring output.
Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace have been effective in this series, so one should expect more from them.
Dallas misses the defensive depth that it could have if it retained Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith, whereas a guy like Josh Green, whose defensive rating is terrible, gets more playing time now but suffers a negative outlook given OKC's defensive depth.
On top of everything else, we can still hope for another Thunder three-point shooting barrage, given the team's number one ranking in three-point shooting percentage.
Dallas' Scorers
Dallas barely covered despite a masterclass performance from PJ Washington, who led the team in scoring.
With Luka Doncic having to deal with Lu Dort's tough on-ball defense, Kyrie Irving has to deal with another Thunder defender who's received All-NBA Defensive Team votes in Gilgeous-Alexander.
I find that OKC has too many good defenders for Dallas to handle.
General Trends
The Thunder nearly covered the spread in Game 3 despite underachieving in the turnover and rebounding departments.
Their rebounding should not be as bad, and they can fix the turnover issue.
Specifically, they just need to believe more in themselves and to stop hesitating so much.
They are passing up good shooting opportunities and, in doing so, giving Dallas' defense more life.
One has to expect them to bring more concentrated energy after losing Game 3. They are, statistically speaking, reliable winners after a loss.
Best Bet: Thunder ML at +110 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Game of Adjustments
We saw in Cleveland's series against Orlando that the Cavaliere are, especially at home, good at making adjustments.
The key will be to get Donovan Mitchell's teammates more involved in the offense.
Mitchell is continuing to thrive against Boston's defense, but he can't do it all by himself.
As it has done against Orlando's tougher and overall stronger defense, Mitchell's supporting cast will step up in Game 4.
Max Strus, for example, has shot the ball well at home.
Darius Garland should likewise improve, as he shot the ball very well in Game 2 in Boston.
Overall, Cleveland's three-point shooting is much better at home than on the road.
It's also not entirely a matter of making adjustments to get these guys more involved as it is one of executing: Mitchell already helped them get good looks from deep – the Cavaliers have gotten a high quantity of good looks throughout this series – but they underachieved in their shot-making.
Secret Weapon
Cleveland's secret weapon in Game 4 will actually be an inside scorer.
Evan Mobley is a reliable scorer inside against a Boston team missing its top rim protector.
But Dean Wade should also be effective.
Wade shook off rust in his return to action in Game 3, so now he'll be ready to replicate his March 5 23-point output against a Boston defense that had its best rim protector.
Cleveland's Defense
Anchored by a strong rim protector in Mobley, to whom Cleveland's perimeter defenders gladly funnel opposing ball-handlers, Cleveland's defense will do well again in Game 4.
The Cavaliers held Boston to 106 points despite their offensive struggles – bad offense often bleeds into bad defense.
Based on what they usually do, Boston can't be expected to shoot better in Game 4 or to get more points out of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown than it did in Game 3.
Jrue Holiday also played well beyond himself in Game 3, in contrast to Mitchell's supporting cast, which is so odd because supporting casts tend to be stronger on their home floor.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +8 at -110 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 4:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Game 3 Takeaways
After running out of steam in the fourth quarter, the Knicks lost by five, barely hanging on for the cover.
Let's recognize what it took for them to stay within five.
As a team, they shot 51.9 percent from behind the arc. They made 14 threes.
Donte DiVincenzo had one of his highest-scoring performances of this season.
Whereas the Knicks shot over ten percent above their average from behind the arc, the Pacers shot around their average.
Obi Toppin and T.J. McConnell had disappointing games.
Change and Continuity
These are all occurrences that will not continue: DiVincenzo will fall back to Earth, as will New York's three-point shooting.
Moreover, Indiana will get more from its bench. Toppin and McConnell were both very productive in New York, and yet supporting casts tend to do better at home.
Pascal Siakam
Skeptics might point out that Pascal Siakam's Game 3 performance was anomalous.
But there is a reason for Siakam's improved offensive output.
OG Anunoby is well-known as a terrific defender, so Siakam faced much less resistance with him absent.
Because Anunoby is out again for Game 4, I expect Siakam to continue to thrive, as he also did in the first round.
Missing Anunoby
My main issue with Anunoby's absence is that the Knicks simply lack scorers.
Without them being able to make threes at an unsustainable rate, I don't understand how they will make it past 100 points.
Yes, Indiana's defense is bad, but the Pacers also held a Milwaukee team with Damian Lillard to below 100 points at home.
The Knicks lack the firepower to break 100 points especially in Indiana.
Indiana's depth and overall scoring quality will be too much for the Knicks.
Best Bet: Pacers -5.5 at -110 with BetOnline & Knicks under 105.5 points at -105 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City's young mega-talent experienced a learning lesson in Game 3.
Whereas veteran Kyrie Irving showed composure down the stretch, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bricked shots, made bad passes, and cost his team points by foul-baiting.
In a close game, specifically in a close fourth quarter, Gilgeous-Alexander is going to show more composure.
He had a terrific game overall, scoring 31 points, but his inexperience down the stretch cost his team the game and the cover.
My point is that he can clearly succeed against this Mavs defense. He just needs to learn from what transpired in the final stages of Game 3.
More Offense
A higher shooting volume from Chet Holmgren, whose versatility should bother Dallas' defense, should lead him to replicate his Game 1 scoring output.
Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace have been effective in this series, so one should expect more from them.
Dallas misses the defensive depth that it could have if it retained Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith, whereas a guy like Josh Green, whose defensive rating is terrible, gets more playing time now but suffers a negative outlook given OKC's defensive depth.
On top of everything else, we can still hope for another Thunder three-point shooting barrage, given the team's number one ranking in three-point shooting percentage.
Dallas' Scorers
Dallas barely covered despite a masterclass performance from PJ Washington, who led the team in scoring.
With Luka Doncic having to deal with Lu Dort's tough on-ball defense, Kyrie Irving has to deal with another Thunder defender who's received All-NBA Defensive Team votes in Gilgeous-Alexander.
I find that OKC has too many good defenders for Dallas to handle.
General Trends
The Thunder nearly covered the spread in Game 3 despite underachieving in the turnover and rebounding departments.
Their rebounding should not be as bad, and they can fix the turnover issue.
Specifically, they just need to believe more in themselves and to stop hesitating so much.
They are passing up good shooting opportunities and, in doing so, giving Dallas' defense more life.
One has to expect them to bring more concentrated energy after losing Game 3. They are, statistically speaking, reliable winners after a loss.
Best Bet: Thunder ML at +110 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Game of Adjustments
We saw in Cleveland's series against Orlando that the Cavaliere are, especially at home, good at making adjustments.
The key will be to get Donovan Mitchell's teammates more involved in the offense.
Mitchell is continuing to thrive against Boston's defense, but he can't do it all by himself.
As it has done against Orlando's tougher and overall stronger defense, Mitchell's supporting cast will step up in Game 4.
Max Strus, for example, has shot the ball well at home.
Darius Garland should likewise improve, as he shot the ball very well in Game 2 in Boston.
Overall, Cleveland's three-point shooting is much better at home than on the road.
It's also not entirely a matter of making adjustments to get these guys more involved as it is one of executing: Mitchell already helped them get good looks from deep – the Cavaliers have gotten a high quantity of good looks throughout this series – but they underachieved in their shot-making.
Secret Weapon
Cleveland's secret weapon in Game 4 will actually be an inside scorer.
Evan Mobley is a reliable scorer inside against a Boston team missing its top rim protector.
But Dean Wade should also be effective.
Wade shook off rust in his return to action in Game 3, so now he'll be ready to replicate his March 5 23-point output against a Boston defense that had its best rim protector.
Cleveland's Defense
Anchored by a strong rim protector in Mobley, to whom Cleveland's perimeter defenders gladly funnel opposing ball-handlers, Cleveland's defense will do well again in Game 4.
The Cavaliers held Boston to 106 points despite their offensive struggles – bad offense often bleeds into bad defense.
Based on what they usually do, Boston can't be expected to shoot better in Game 4 or to get more points out of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown than it did in Game 3.
Jrue Holiday also played well beyond himself in Game 3, in contrast to Mitchell's supporting cast, which is so odd because supporting casts tend to be stronger on their home floor.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +8 at -110 with BetOnline
