Game 4 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Minnesota Has Its Brooms Ready
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Sunday, April 28, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Footprint Center in Phoenix
Explaining Phoenix's Defense
It might seem tempting to look at Phoenix's defensive numbers late in the regular season and to want to expect the Suns to improve in this series.
The Suns began realizing their potential after suffering a blowout loss to the Clippers on January 8.
But their defense really began to take shape in the final month of the regular season.
In April, the Suns ranked fourth in defensive rating.
The key is that Phoenix, in that time period, showed the best that it could do defensively. And yet, even then, problems were perceptible that are making a difference now.
Two key problems are the following.
Point-of-Attack Defense
One, they lack a good point-of-attack defender.
On defense, the Suns never improved, at least to a meaningful extent, at the point of attack.
This is why guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder and Jayson Tatum for the Celtics could have more success against the Suns' defense than against other teams.
Those are guards who will run into trouble, relatively speaking, when they encounter a strong point-of-attack defender.
Phoenix's lack of one has been a problem in this series as Anthony Edwards for Minnesota has been thriving at the point of attack.
Royce O'Neale was supposed to be a valuable acquisition for the Suns, as a wing defender who should contain the opposing team's top player.
But he doesn't have the speed or general ability to contain a young star like Edwards.
Lack of Depth
Phoenix, in this series, is getting bested by Minnesota's depth of scoring talent.
The Timberwolves' depth means that a couple players can struggle, such as Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns did in Minnesota's Game 2 win, and the team will still win because other guys will step up.
During the later regular season phase, when Phoenix's defense was improved overall, the Suns still struggled against deeper teams, with the Celtics and Thunder being two examples of teams that relied on their depth to overwhelm Phoenix's defense.
A Third Problem
Phoenix's defense has in many respects lacked the sharpness of its better regular season days.
An example is when Drew Eubanks ran into Kevin Durant as the latter was trying to recover to his man, allowing his man to attempt an uncontested shot.
Even if the Suns are showing their best sharpness at times, they are failing to put things together for four quarters, which again points to their lack of depth.
Phoenix Needs Creation
Phoenix is an offense that is built on the strength of its individual scorers, who need to find and make tough shots in isolation.
But the Timberwolves are wearing down the Suns' scorers on both ends of the court.
They also have too many good on-ball defenders and a team defense that is too strong.
Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are having trouble being efficient when guarded by Jaden McDaniels or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Kevin Durant has struggled against perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert.
The Timberwolves also have strong defense in general, one that can also turn defense into offense by taking advantage of Phoenix's lack of a point guard, which makes the team lack creativity and ball security.
Minnesota's Offensive Improvement
Whereas the Suns improved defensively overall but not in key respects, the Timberwolves have improved a lot offensively and are benefiting from this improvement.
In April, a Minnesota offense once known to be the source of the team's troubles ranked seventh in offensive rating.
Since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, the unit became stronger overall.
Anthony Edwards is playing smarter and more poised, making better decisions.
No matter how many defensive adjustments the Suns make, he is finding holes and exploiting opportunities.
Also the offense in general shows more ball movement and is more dynamic.
Minnesota is especially taking advantage of center Jusuf Nurkic's characteristic lack of foot speed and Phoenix's overall vulnerable interior defense, radically increasing the rate at which the Suns allow field goal conversions especially within five-to-nine feet from the basket.
The Timberwolves haven't been all that great from behind the arc, yet they don't need to be while they control spaces near the basket.
Best Bet: Timberwolves ML at -115 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 29, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center
Miami's Bounce-Back Spot
In the playoffs, under current head coach Erik Spoelstra, Miami has an excellent track record of bouncing back at home especially after a defeat that takes place by a sizeable margin.
Let's look at last year's examples.
After losing to Milwaukee 138-122, the Heat won at home 121-99.
In the Semifinals, they beat New York 105-86 and 96-92 in two home games, respectively, each of which followed a loss.
Against Boston, Miami lost at home 104-103 after losing its last game by 13, 110-97.
In the Finals against Denver, the Heat were likewise more competitive at home following their loss in their previous game.
Takeaway
The Heat defense, every time, allows fewer points following a bad loss.
Miami allowed 104 points in Game 3, so our trend dictates that it will allow fewer than 104 points in Game 4.
The Problem
The key problem for Miami is that it lacks the offensive capacity to be as competitive as it was last year.
Jimmy Butler, the team's top scorer, is injured.
Likewise, point guard Terry Rozier remains injured.
Three-Pointers
Game 1 between these teams this season saw a total of 208 points because Boston made 22 three-pointers.
Since Game 1, though, Miami has clamped down on the perimeter, reducing Boston's frequency of open and wide-open three-point attempts – the Heat especially reduced the latter.
Boston has therefore failed to sniff its Game 1 point total.
In Game 2, Miami scored 111 points on the strength of 23 three-pointers.
But the Heat mustered 84 points in Game 3 because Boston locked them down on the perimeter.
In order to score enough points for the "over" to hit, there will need to be a barrage of three-pointers, but both defenses have figured out how to prevent that barrage from taking place.
Both teams are having trouble scoring inside where Boston has to deal with Miami's strong and characteristically focused defense around the basket and Miami lacks sufficient playmaking talent inside.
Best Bet: Under 202 at -105 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Sunday, April 28, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
New Orleans' Shot-Making
New Orleans figured things out in Game 3, only you couldn't see it on the scoreboard.
In Game 2, the Pelicans created five open three-point opportunities. In Game 3, that number ballooned to twelve.
The problem is that they are not converting their opportunities.
In Game 3, they made 23.5 percent of their wide-open three-point shot attempts and 25 percent of their open ones.
During the regular season, the Pelicans ranked fourth in three-point shooting percentage. So they can certainly do a lot better.
The Pelicans' Depth
The Pelicans have not only underachieved in this series in terms of their shot-making specifically, but also in terms of their scoring depth in general.
In the regular season, they once scored 118 points in Dallas despite missing Zion, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy.
So, the importance of Zion's absence is really being overblown.
Considering what scoring depth the Pelicans do have, getting four points at home is a gift that is a consequence of New Orleans underachieving in this respect, too.
Takeaway
Things will be all the easier for the Pelicans when the Thunder finally stop overachieving from deep, where they have approached 50 percent in both of the last two games.
This could be a low-scoring thriller like Game 1, but I find it likelier that the Pelicans finally score more than 100 points, showcasing the depth of scoring talent that they've proven to exist many times beyond that one game in Dallas, including against good defenses such as Cleveland's.
Best Bet: Pelicans +4 at -104 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Sunday, April 28, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Footprint Center in Phoenix
Explaining Phoenix's Defense
It might seem tempting to look at Phoenix's defensive numbers late in the regular season and to want to expect the Suns to improve in this series.
The Suns began realizing their potential after suffering a blowout loss to the Clippers on January 8.
But their defense really began to take shape in the final month of the regular season.
In April, the Suns ranked fourth in defensive rating.
The key is that Phoenix, in that time period, showed the best that it could do defensively. And yet, even then, problems were perceptible that are making a difference now.
Two key problems are the following.
Point-of-Attack Defense
One, they lack a good point-of-attack defender.
On defense, the Suns never improved, at least to a meaningful extent, at the point of attack.
This is why guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder and Jayson Tatum for the Celtics could have more success against the Suns' defense than against other teams.
Those are guards who will run into trouble, relatively speaking, when they encounter a strong point-of-attack defender.
Phoenix's lack of one has been a problem in this series as Anthony Edwards for Minnesota has been thriving at the point of attack.
Royce O'Neale was supposed to be a valuable acquisition for the Suns, as a wing defender who should contain the opposing team's top player.
But he doesn't have the speed or general ability to contain a young star like Edwards.
Lack of Depth
Phoenix, in this series, is getting bested by Minnesota's depth of scoring talent.
The Timberwolves' depth means that a couple players can struggle, such as Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns did in Minnesota's Game 2 win, and the team will still win because other guys will step up.
During the later regular season phase, when Phoenix's defense was improved overall, the Suns still struggled against deeper teams, with the Celtics and Thunder being two examples of teams that relied on their depth to overwhelm Phoenix's defense.
A Third Problem
Phoenix's defense has in many respects lacked the sharpness of its better regular season days.
An example is when Drew Eubanks ran into Kevin Durant as the latter was trying to recover to his man, allowing his man to attempt an uncontested shot.
Even if the Suns are showing their best sharpness at times, they are failing to put things together for four quarters, which again points to their lack of depth.
Phoenix Needs Creation
Phoenix is an offense that is built on the strength of its individual scorers, who need to find and make tough shots in isolation.
But the Timberwolves are wearing down the Suns' scorers on both ends of the court.
They also have too many good on-ball defenders and a team defense that is too strong.
Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are having trouble being efficient when guarded by Jaden McDaniels or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Kevin Durant has struggled against perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert.
The Timberwolves also have strong defense in general, one that can also turn defense into offense by taking advantage of Phoenix's lack of a point guard, which makes the team lack creativity and ball security.
Minnesota's Offensive Improvement
Whereas the Suns improved defensively overall but not in key respects, the Timberwolves have improved a lot offensively and are benefiting from this improvement.
In April, a Minnesota offense once known to be the source of the team's troubles ranked seventh in offensive rating.
Since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, the unit became stronger overall.
Anthony Edwards is playing smarter and more poised, making better decisions.
No matter how many defensive adjustments the Suns make, he is finding holes and exploiting opportunities.
Also the offense in general shows more ball movement and is more dynamic.
Minnesota is especially taking advantage of center Jusuf Nurkic's characteristic lack of foot speed and Phoenix's overall vulnerable interior defense, radically increasing the rate at which the Suns allow field goal conversions especially within five-to-nine feet from the basket.
The Timberwolves haven't been all that great from behind the arc, yet they don't need to be while they control spaces near the basket.
Best Bet: Timberwolves ML at -115 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 29, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center
Miami's Bounce-Back Spot
In the playoffs, under current head coach Erik Spoelstra, Miami has an excellent track record of bouncing back at home especially after a defeat that takes place by a sizeable margin.
Let's look at last year's examples.
After losing to Milwaukee 138-122, the Heat won at home 121-99.
In the Semifinals, they beat New York 105-86 and 96-92 in two home games, respectively, each of which followed a loss.
Against Boston, Miami lost at home 104-103 after losing its last game by 13, 110-97.
In the Finals against Denver, the Heat were likewise more competitive at home following their loss in their previous game.
Takeaway
The Heat defense, every time, allows fewer points following a bad loss.
Miami allowed 104 points in Game 3, so our trend dictates that it will allow fewer than 104 points in Game 4.
The Problem
The key problem for Miami is that it lacks the offensive capacity to be as competitive as it was last year.
Jimmy Butler, the team's top scorer, is injured.
Likewise, point guard Terry Rozier remains injured.
Three-Pointers
Game 1 between these teams this season saw a total of 208 points because Boston made 22 three-pointers.
Since Game 1, though, Miami has clamped down on the perimeter, reducing Boston's frequency of open and wide-open three-point attempts – the Heat especially reduced the latter.
Boston has therefore failed to sniff its Game 1 point total.
In Game 2, Miami scored 111 points on the strength of 23 three-pointers.
But the Heat mustered 84 points in Game 3 because Boston locked them down on the perimeter.
In order to score enough points for the "over" to hit, there will need to be a barrage of three-pointers, but both defenses have figured out how to prevent that barrage from taking place.
Both teams are having trouble scoring inside where Boston has to deal with Miami's strong and characteristically focused defense around the basket and Miami lacks sufficient playmaking talent inside.
Best Bet: Under 202 at -105 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Sunday, April 28, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
New Orleans' Shot-Making
New Orleans figured things out in Game 3, only you couldn't see it on the scoreboard.
In Game 2, the Pelicans created five open three-point opportunities. In Game 3, that number ballooned to twelve.
The problem is that they are not converting their opportunities.
In Game 3, they made 23.5 percent of their wide-open three-point shot attempts and 25 percent of their open ones.
During the regular season, the Pelicans ranked fourth in three-point shooting percentage. So they can certainly do a lot better.
The Pelicans' Depth
The Pelicans have not only underachieved in this series in terms of their shot-making specifically, but also in terms of their scoring depth in general.
In the regular season, they once scored 118 points in Dallas despite missing Zion, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy.
So, the importance of Zion's absence is really being overblown.
Considering what scoring depth the Pelicans do have, getting four points at home is a gift that is a consequence of New Orleans underachieving in this respect, too.
Takeaway
Things will be all the easier for the Pelicans when the Thunder finally stop overachieving from deep, where they have approached 50 percent in both of the last two games.
This could be a low-scoring thriller like Game 1, but I find it likelier that the Pelicans finally score more than 100 points, showcasing the depth of scoring talent that they've proven to exist many times beyond that one game in Dallas, including against good defenses such as Cleveland's.
Best Bet: Pelicans +4 at -104 with BetOnline
