Game 1 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Pelicans-Thunder To Be A Defensive Affair
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
The First Angle
The NBA is very much a star-driven league.
The value provided by star players will typically not be replaced.
In this game, I find that especially both team's top scorer will either struggle to score or fail to score altogether.
Zion's Injury
Pelicans star Zion Williamson is out for this game due to a hamstring strain.
His absence is significant because he was the team's leading scorer in the regular season – with 22.9 points per game.
We can see the impact of his presence or absence in the regular season history between these two teams.
These teams played three times. Zion played in two of those games.
In the two games in which Zion played, he scored 20 and 29 points, respectively.
When he scored 20 points, the Pelicans scored 110 points. When he scored 29 points, they scored 112 points.
Tellingly, in the game that he missed altogether, the Pelicans scored 83 points.
New Orleans does not have a player who can come close to replicating Zion's inside scoring prowess.
Shai Glgeous-Alexander's Outlook
By far the most important scorer for the Thunder is their point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
With 30.1 points per game, he averaged eleven more points than any of his teammates in the regular season.
His outlook today is negative because, as measured by field goal percentage, he has the most trouble scoring against the Pelican than he does against any other team.
The fact that his field goal percentage is lowest against the Pelicans indicates his struggle to be efficient against their defense.
He specifically struggles against Herb Jones.
Jones is an extremely underrated defender. He repeatedly locks down high-caliber scoring guards, with Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton being another victim of his.
His effectivity as a defender is visible on every inch of the court.
The Pelicans will need their defense to be at its best in order to compete with the Thunder without Zion's scoring prowess. Jones will be a key part of this endeavor.
Playoff Basketball
The second major angle primarily concerns the Thunder.
They rely on transition scoring more than any other team.
However, the game slows down in the playoffs, inherently placinging more value on half-court offense.
The nature of playoff basketball is going to make the Thunder less comfortable on offense.
This young team will have the most trouble adjusting to the reality of playoff basketball in its first playoff game.
Best Bet: Under 214.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
Monday, April 22, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Game 1 Recap
New York barely covered the spread in Game 1 despite 76ers star Joel Embiid struggling with a knee injury and getting scoring support primarily only from Tyrese Maxey and somewhat from Kyle Lowry.
In order to cover the spread, the Knicks needed a guy who shot 31 percent from behind the arc to have the time of his life from behind the arc, and they needed to dominate the offensive glass by an absurd margin.
Some Game 2 Expectations
In Game 2, the offensive margin disparity will not fall in the Knicks' favor to the absurd extent that it did in Game 1. Instead, the disparity will be more representative of the season-long statistics. This means fewer second-chance points and ultimately fewer points for the Knicks.
The non-stars will not thrive for New York to the extent that they did, which allowed the team to shoot well above its average from behind the arc.
Conversely, Philadelphia's non-stars are going to step up.
Jalen Brunson's Outlook
The simple-sounding response to my anticipations is to claim that Jalen Brunson is certain to improve in Game 2.
In Game 1, Brunson converted 8 of 26 field goal attempts, which amounts to 30.8 percent.
I find that this is repeatable.
Philadelphia's defense clearly wants to take Brunson away.
The 76ers also clearly have the tactics – such as with their ball-screen coverage – and the personnel to limit him.
In the regular season, Brunson struggled to be efficient in multiple tries against Philadelphia's defense.
Brunson's Supporting Cast
One must expect New York's bench players to cool off.
In Game 1, Miles McBridge shot five-for-seven from deep, Bojan Bogdanovic was three-for-six from deep, Josh Hart was four-for-eight from deep, and Donte DiVincenzo was two-for-five from deep.
That is a lot of efficiency, and that collection of overachieving performances is what it took for the Knicks to barely cover the spread.
Joel Embiid's Unrelenting Significance
Joel Embiid is too big and strong and too successful drawing fouls to fail to score much when he's on the court against New York's defense.
The 76ers dominated when he played even in the phases when he wasn't scoring much.
His presence opened up paths for teammate Tyrese Maxey, who is an unstoppable scorer.
On defense, he made scoring in the paint difficult for the Knicks – in this space, they shot 18-for-45 on Saturday.
His paint presence spells trouble for a team that won't be able to rely on overachieving from behind the arc again.
Embiid and Maxey's Supporting Cast
This team has too much scoring talent – at least two players among Kelly Oubre Jr., Tobias Harris, Buddy Hield, and Nicolas Batum will step up.
Oubre Jr. and Harris averaged over 15 points per game in the regular season.
Hield is a high-volume sharpshooter who was getting his playoff feet wet.
Batum has built a noticable history of stepping up in the postseason when he was a Clipper and Trail Blazer.
Kyle Lowry, who had two double-digit efforts in the regular season against the Knicks, can come close to what he did in Game 1, plus any contribution from Cam Payne can make up for any negative difference between Lowry in Game 1 and Lowry in Game 2.
Best Bet: 76ers +5 at -105 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, April 21, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Orlando's Poor Shooting
Orlando scored 83 points in Game 1.
The Magic were held back primarily by the offensive ineptitude of their guard play.
This is a very young team, starting with their guards.
But the main issue is that this is a poorly constructed roster.
In order to pose any threat on offense, the Magic need to be able to shoot.
They converted 8 of 37 three-point attempts in Game 1, good for 21.6 percent.
I just don't see any reason to expect them to shoot much better in Game 2.
Yes, they probably won't score 83 points again.
But they'll need to score well over 90 points in order to cover the spread.
As measured by three-point percentage, they are one of the NBA's worst shooting teams.
When they can't shoot, Cleveland can easily collapse inside on defense.
Paolo Banchero's shots were, as a result, pretty much all tightly contested.
Orlando struggled to score inside against a Cavaliers rim protection unit, led by Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, that is very good in general at limiting opposing efficiency inside the basket.
Cleveland's Shooting
The Cavaliers won Game 1 by 14 despite the fact that they underachieved from behind the arc.
They shot 26.7 percent from deep.
Cleveland is primed to improve in this respect: in the regular season, it shot over 38 percent from deep at home.
In the regular season, Cleveland exceeded 120 points twice against Orlando.
Knowing what Cleveland can do against Orlando's defense must help assure us that the Cavaliers will be more acclimated in Game 2 to Orlando's sort of pressure and physicality, which limited their scoring somewhat in Game 1.
Cleveland could have also scored more in Game 1, except that it wasn't being pushed by Orlando's offense.
Cleveland's Inside Scoring
When the Magic drew close, the Cavaliers could respond by setting aside their endeavor to shoot threes and driving inside especially with Donovan Mitchell, whose combination of scoring quality and playoff experience distinguishes him from anything that Orlando's offense can offer.
Mobley could also get more attention in Game 2, given the spacing that he provides for others as a consequence of the threat that he poses to Orlando's rim protection. He scored 16 points in Game 1.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -6 at -105 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
The First Angle
The NBA is very much a star-driven league.
The value provided by star players will typically not be replaced.
In this game, I find that especially both team's top scorer will either struggle to score or fail to score altogether.
Zion's Injury
Pelicans star Zion Williamson is out for this game due to a hamstring strain.
His absence is significant because he was the team's leading scorer in the regular season – with 22.9 points per game.
We can see the impact of his presence or absence in the regular season history between these two teams.
These teams played three times. Zion played in two of those games.
In the two games in which Zion played, he scored 20 and 29 points, respectively.
When he scored 20 points, the Pelicans scored 110 points. When he scored 29 points, they scored 112 points.
Tellingly, in the game that he missed altogether, the Pelicans scored 83 points.
New Orleans does not have a player who can come close to replicating Zion's inside scoring prowess.
Shai Glgeous-Alexander's Outlook
By far the most important scorer for the Thunder is their point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
With 30.1 points per game, he averaged eleven more points than any of his teammates in the regular season.
His outlook today is negative because, as measured by field goal percentage, he has the most trouble scoring against the Pelican than he does against any other team.
The fact that his field goal percentage is lowest against the Pelicans indicates his struggle to be efficient against their defense.
He specifically struggles against Herb Jones.
Jones is an extremely underrated defender. He repeatedly locks down high-caliber scoring guards, with Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton being another victim of his.
His effectivity as a defender is visible on every inch of the court.
The Pelicans will need their defense to be at its best in order to compete with the Thunder without Zion's scoring prowess. Jones will be a key part of this endeavor.
Playoff Basketball
The second major angle primarily concerns the Thunder.
They rely on transition scoring more than any other team.
However, the game slows down in the playoffs, inherently placinging more value on half-court offense.
The nature of playoff basketball is going to make the Thunder less comfortable on offense.
This young team will have the most trouble adjusting to the reality of playoff basketball in its first playoff game.
Best Bet: Under 214.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
Monday, April 22, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Game 1 Recap
New York barely covered the spread in Game 1 despite 76ers star Joel Embiid struggling with a knee injury and getting scoring support primarily only from Tyrese Maxey and somewhat from Kyle Lowry.
In order to cover the spread, the Knicks needed a guy who shot 31 percent from behind the arc to have the time of his life from behind the arc, and they needed to dominate the offensive glass by an absurd margin.
Some Game 2 Expectations
In Game 2, the offensive margin disparity will not fall in the Knicks' favor to the absurd extent that it did in Game 1. Instead, the disparity will be more representative of the season-long statistics. This means fewer second-chance points and ultimately fewer points for the Knicks.
The non-stars will not thrive for New York to the extent that they did, which allowed the team to shoot well above its average from behind the arc.
Conversely, Philadelphia's non-stars are going to step up.
Jalen Brunson's Outlook
The simple-sounding response to my anticipations is to claim that Jalen Brunson is certain to improve in Game 2.
In Game 1, Brunson converted 8 of 26 field goal attempts, which amounts to 30.8 percent.
I find that this is repeatable.
Philadelphia's defense clearly wants to take Brunson away.
The 76ers also clearly have the tactics – such as with their ball-screen coverage – and the personnel to limit him.
In the regular season, Brunson struggled to be efficient in multiple tries against Philadelphia's defense.
Brunson's Supporting Cast
One must expect New York's bench players to cool off.
In Game 1, Miles McBridge shot five-for-seven from deep, Bojan Bogdanovic was three-for-six from deep, Josh Hart was four-for-eight from deep, and Donte DiVincenzo was two-for-five from deep.
That is a lot of efficiency, and that collection of overachieving performances is what it took for the Knicks to barely cover the spread.
Joel Embiid's Unrelenting Significance
Joel Embiid is too big and strong and too successful drawing fouls to fail to score much when he's on the court against New York's defense.
The 76ers dominated when he played even in the phases when he wasn't scoring much.
His presence opened up paths for teammate Tyrese Maxey, who is an unstoppable scorer.
On defense, he made scoring in the paint difficult for the Knicks – in this space, they shot 18-for-45 on Saturday.
His paint presence spells trouble for a team that won't be able to rely on overachieving from behind the arc again.
Embiid and Maxey's Supporting Cast
This team has too much scoring talent – at least two players among Kelly Oubre Jr., Tobias Harris, Buddy Hield, and Nicolas Batum will step up.
Oubre Jr. and Harris averaged over 15 points per game in the regular season.
Hield is a high-volume sharpshooter who was getting his playoff feet wet.
Batum has built a noticable history of stepping up in the postseason when he was a Clipper and Trail Blazer.
Kyle Lowry, who had two double-digit efforts in the regular season against the Knicks, can come close to what he did in Game 1, plus any contribution from Cam Payne can make up for any negative difference between Lowry in Game 1 and Lowry in Game 2.
Best Bet: 76ers +5 at -105 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, April 21, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Orlando's Poor Shooting
Orlando scored 83 points in Game 1.
The Magic were held back primarily by the offensive ineptitude of their guard play.
This is a very young team, starting with their guards.
But the main issue is that this is a poorly constructed roster.
In order to pose any threat on offense, the Magic need to be able to shoot.
They converted 8 of 37 three-point attempts in Game 1, good for 21.6 percent.
I just don't see any reason to expect them to shoot much better in Game 2.
Yes, they probably won't score 83 points again.
But they'll need to score well over 90 points in order to cover the spread.
As measured by three-point percentage, they are one of the NBA's worst shooting teams.
When they can't shoot, Cleveland can easily collapse inside on defense.
Paolo Banchero's shots were, as a result, pretty much all tightly contested.
Orlando struggled to score inside against a Cavaliers rim protection unit, led by Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, that is very good in general at limiting opposing efficiency inside the basket.
Cleveland's Shooting
The Cavaliers won Game 1 by 14 despite the fact that they underachieved from behind the arc.
They shot 26.7 percent from deep.
Cleveland is primed to improve in this respect: in the regular season, it shot over 38 percent from deep at home.
In the regular season, Cleveland exceeded 120 points twice against Orlando.
Knowing what Cleveland can do against Orlando's defense must help assure us that the Cavaliers will be more acclimated in Game 2 to Orlando's sort of pressure and physicality, which limited their scoring somewhat in Game 1.
Cleveland could have also scored more in Game 1, except that it wasn't being pushed by Orlando's offense.
Cleveland's Inside Scoring
When the Magic drew close, the Cavaliers could respond by setting aside their endeavor to shoot threes and driving inside especially with Donovan Mitchell, whose combination of scoring quality and playoff experience distinguishes him from anything that Orlando's offense can offer.
Mobley could also get more attention in Game 2, given the spacing that he provides for others as a consequence of the threat that he poses to Orlando's rim protection. He scored 16 points in Game 1.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -6 at -105 with BetOnline
