Sunday action; 20-12 YTD

[tee*dub]

Updated:

ATS 8-5 , +5050
ML dogs 2-2, +2800
Teasers 1-1, -400
ML favs 0-1, -2700
Totals 0-2,-$3450
HT wager 9-1, +16,000

Overall NFL 20-12, +17,300

__________________________________________________

Solid week last week in NFL, if not for Philly meltdown. Oh Well. CFB was brutal for me yesterday so looking for a bounce back today in what has been a pretty good run in the NFL.

Buffalo -2.5, -110, 6 units; 3300-3000 WIN
KC -3, +100, 4 units; 2000-2000 LOSS

adds:

Lions +2.5, -110, 10 units; 5500-5000
Lions 1H +.5, -110, 2 units; 1100-1000

I will be looking to add some HT plays as I am hitting 90% on those for the season. Obviously 90% won't continue but pretty good at picking my HT spots in the NFL.

Quick thoughts on the above:

Bills- have won three in a row and playing at a much higher level than the fins right now. Miami does not provide a hostile home field advantage so I discounted the line a bit there. Miami's run defense is horrible (2nd worst in the league give up 160rpg) and will not improve today with Zach Thomas watching the game with a drip cup below his chin. Lynch got his first 100 yard game LW and will go over that total today IMO. I am buying the Bills stock right now.

KC- tough one to figure with LJ being out but bottom line is the home team has won 9 in a row (regular season) in this series and I expect a rowdy crowd as usual today. I mentioned above that Miami has the 2 nd worse run defense and they beat only the Broncos. Smith and Holmes will combine to go well over 150 in this one.. Denver isn't scoring (No.28) and has lots of problems internally.. Good spot for the Chiefs IMO

Leans:

Rams off a bye week with Jackson back, they keep it close Should have played
Lions Likely add after the early games. waiting on the line as everyone seems to like the gridbirds
SD ML who you going to throw to Peyton? Chargers embarrased LW, and got a 50/50 chance to win this one IMO.. Good ML value

GL all. :cheers:

 

[Mags]

GL bro, love the KC play.

 

[Vapster]

Wondering bout that Buff line. Only 3? Who's Miami? gl on your plays t*d:15_10_5:

 

[tee*dub]

Wondering bout that Buff line. Only 3? Who's Miami? gl on your plays t*d:15_10_5:

Still at 2.5 most places.. Looks like they are trying to draw in Buff money but I don't put a lot of weight into that kind analysis.

 

[Vapster]

Yeah...looking on Matchbook. Can get Buffalo -3 +122...A great line IMO...Maybe it's like the Notre Dame lines...Except with Miami, It's...They can't lose another one badly...Can they?!:moose:

 

[Zeke]

The Greek has Buff down to -2.5 right now. I want to know who the F is hammering Miami. I think under a FG is a great line for Buff.

 

[Satyr]

GL tonight TW, I'm on KC as well.

*hijacking the thread*

KC -3 (2.05) 5 units


:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

The Greek has Buff down to -2.5 right now. I want to know who the F is hammering Miami. I think under a FG is a great line for Buff.

Lots of guys on here are on Miami and I expected that.. I see Mista released Miami as his play of the week and he is a Buffalo guy..(that is interesting)

Additional reasons for Buff:

Scheduling: The going was tough early for Buffalo losing at Pitt and At NE in the first three weeks of the season. Since then they have won 4 of last 5 with the only loss being a one pointer against the Cowboys. They are 4-4 and do not have the luxury of a letdown. Must get wins when they are available. I do not agree this is a bad spot for Buffalo.

Lynch is emerging.. Check out his interview on Rome show (Espn has link). He is a stud and he will find huge holes similar to what he saw LW against the Bengals.

Miami is the worst team in the NFL and without Zach Thomas they solidify that designation even more. Yes they are worse than the Rams IMO. Buffalo is not the type of team that will take a lower level team for granted IMO. They were humbled earlier in the season and feel they must fight for every win.

To me the line is an attempt to draw in money from the contrarian cappers. (How can it be true? The shady NFL, etc.) and it is doing just that. No offense to the contarian players because I am often contrarian, but this is a bad position to make a contrarian play because the difference in talent level and the points I make above about Buff. being hungry.. Of course this is just one man's opinion.. We'll see.

 

[Vapster]

tee*dub:box:shady nfl


:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

LOL- Buffalo down to -2

 

[Mags]

Where's your 1/2 time wagers bro?

 

[tee*dub]

Where's your 1/2 time wagers bro?

nothing I liked..

 

[Vapster]

Good call on Buffalo t*d:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Lions +2.5, -110, 10 units; 5500-5000
Lions 1H +.5, -110, 2 units; 1100-1000

 

[tee*dub]

add:

Bears 2H -3, +105; 2 units