Sunday 9/7 NFL

brewer

Fan Club of any and everyone good!
Will be updating this thread up and throughout sunday with plays, thoughts and all else in between. There will be another thread for monday night's games to follow.

I've put in a lot of time into the nfl in preparation for this coming year. I spent what free time i could find this summer into studying. I have updating a database of mine i have on excel that contains pointspreads from my notes i have been taking since i first started betting the NFL at the start of the 2005 season.

In years past i have simply gone across the street and faded certain posters and tailed plays i liked from here. While this was fun it didnt quite satisfy me. I found myself wanting to really learn the game. How it was played. The keys to winning and losing. What stats mattered the most. Which teams matched up well against who. How valuable if at all preseason was and even attempting to understand the game at a player by player level to improve my fantasy football team.

I feel the work i put in is up to the task of producing a profitable year. However, i still have more things i want to research. Primarily, 1Q, 1H, 2H and ingame betting. Since, I lack in that research department all of my plays will be in the full game variety.

The above was my attempt at an intro to the season and what i hope to accomplish. Hopefully, a winning year is attained after game #267 is over in Feb (SB). I want to win money just as much as the next person but learning and notetaking is more important to me right now as the amount of USD I place on these games now is small in relation to what I hope to be placing in my 30s.

I wish everyone the best here. Now for week 1.

Sunday 12 pm
buf -1 (1)
jac -3 -105 (1)
stl +9 -120 (1)
hou/pit u43 (1)
tb/no u42.5 (1)
nyj/mia u36 (1)

3:15 pm
ari -3 +105 (1)
dal/cle u49 (1)
ari/sf u42 (1)

7:15 pm
chi +10 -120 (1)

:prayer
 
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Brewer good read man, and good luck during the year. Anytime you want to discuss a game, lets do it.



Leans
IND---lean the same way
OAK----no real opinion, would like to see both play b4 anything
BUF---lean Buf here, may be a play
GB----lean Minny-GB missing 3 interior O-line men--Head coach for GB hasnt lost to Minny-
PIT U--like Tejas here, but playing the Over
OAK U
ATL U
NO U
MIA U
TEN U
BAL U
CLE U


SF U
 
Marlo, Week 1 overs are no go in my book. This time of the year the cliche is correct. Defense is ahead of offense. The one possible over i liked was last night in the giants and redskins game. However, with washington having a new offensive system and me having some faith to little to no faith in each qb made me stay away.

I can see why you like Pit tho. Roethlisberger puts up 20+ spots when at home for Pit with ease.
 
Marlo, Week 1 overs are no go in my book. This time of the year the cliche is correct. Defense is ahead of offense. The one possible over i liked was last night in the giants and redskins game. However, with washington having a new offensive system and me having some faith to little to no faith in each qb made me stay away.

I can see why you like Pit tho. Roethlisberger puts up 20+ spots when at home for Pit with ease.

Ya buddy thats really the only over I like. The totals are extremely low for a reason this time of year.

One under I would look at is that Minny/GB under. This should be a complete snooze fest.

I'm obviously on the Sea/Bills under.
 
Leans
OAK- Lean your way here. I like what the Raiders are doing. Denver for me is the most mysterious team in the league. They are capable of anything IMO.
BUF-If the Bills are halfway decent this is a good spot for them with Seattle flying cross country. I don't buy that the Bills are a possible playoff team like some, but they'll be competitive.
GB- Tough game. Lean Vikings but it's a tough call. Easily the most exciting, and most anticipated game for me.
PIT U
OAK U-Definitely.
ATL U
NO U
MIA U-Like the over here. The Jets should be able to pass on Miami. The Fins should have a much better offense. Hot, humid weather in the first game=tired defenses late in the game.
TEN U-Agreed.
BAL U
CLE U
SF U-Kinda hard not to like 49er unders.

*I will be narrowing down those today and saturday and also relooking a few as lines may sway one way or the other.

My responses in bold.
 
:cheers:Would say I have literally no idea what I am playing at the moment . So hard for me to switch gears and think out plays rather then go with my instincts and read lines , perceptions , etc and make judgements....

Sea @ Buff - need to look at this alot more . SEA WR situation troublesome and Buffalo has a new offensive game plan think they look to open it up alot more here ...for some reason thinking over ...

Det @ Atl : -leaning 1st H under and game under . ryan NFL debut at home should be tight for awhile . While DETs defense has impressed. Previously really liked DET here but bit scared to lay a road fav...

Stl @ Philly : Just dont get this line to be honest as STL is the team they were supposed to be start 2007 and Eagles blah IMO ...would the Giants be such a big fav vs STL? dont think so pts look attractive ...

TB @ Saints : Bucs dont interest me much either but looking at the over . TB defense a year older and Saints offense healthy ...prefer the Saints here

Jags @ Titans : Would hate to say I like an over here as well but have higher expectations for Jags offense this yr but some dinged up players on Jax keep me on the sidelines for this now..Titans with VY as a home pup ?

jets @ Phins; Whats bigger Favre 's NY debut or Penningston shot at redemption ?? Neither offense impresses me maybe an under or 1st H under

cincy @ Balt : Bengals as road chalk ? Even against Flacco ...cant get interested.....yet

thats all I looked at so far ...edit this when I get the rest 1st glimpses out of the way
 
All my bets for sunday are in post #1 of this thread.

Also, I won't have my first model available till after week 1 and the second wont be spitting out numbers till after week 2 is finished. For right now everything is trends from my database so all bets are to win 1 unit.
 
good luck & good health, brew. with u on some, against u on some, and no real opinion on some...if that's ambiguous enough, lol.

enjoy the day :cheers:
 
thanks fellas. steed you ever gonna post any picks?

forgot to mention this but teams i like this year to improve...

OAK
CAR
DAL
PIT
TEN
BAL
DET
KC
 
5-4 going into SNF. 6 and 4 goal right there.

QB I have money on ------->
ortonraging1.jpg
 
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