Sunday 03/20/16 NBA discussion thread

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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL - SUN 3/20[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sun 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]701[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 215 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]01:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]702[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Dallas Mavericks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 215 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sun 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]703[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Orlando Magic[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+10 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 5.800[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 208.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]01:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]704[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Toronto Raptors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-10 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.173[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 208.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sun 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]705[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Boston Celtics[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-11 1.925[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.142[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 215.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]03:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]706[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+11 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 6.690[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 215.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sun 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]707[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-8 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.291[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 212.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]03:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]708[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New Orleans Pelicans[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+8 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 4.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 212.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sun 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]709[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Utah Jazz[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 192 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]710[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Milwaukee Bucks [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 192 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sun 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]711[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sacramento Kings[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-2.5 1.884[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.666[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 211 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]712[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+2.5 2.020[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.360[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 211 1.952[/TD]
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[BJPLAYER]

here's a game where the c's should roll....but philly playing pretty good (for them) right now

 

[divol]

Pels are on that bad spot - second game off a road trip and Clips off a bad loss in Memphis. I like the Clips here.

 

[divol]

here's a game where the c's should roll....but philly playing pretty good (for them) right now

maybe ml... Wouldn't lay points with Celts as long as Crowder is out.

 

[pip2]

Clippers next game after Pelicans is on Wednesday vs. Warriors.

 

[Owster]

I kind of like the Kings @ Knicks Sunday. Sacramento has taken three straight in the series and earned a 99-97 victory at home over New York on Dec. 10 but Knicks 27-17 revenging a loss vs opponent this season. Kings 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings at MSG.

Anyone with an opinion to sway me one way or another?

 

[edou1x]

Home favs, first game back of 5+ game road trip on B2B are 26%ATS and 0% on 6 game road trip like the knicks today:max bet on SAC+1

 

[nbafan88]

Tough to argue against fading the Knicks today

 

[nbafan88]

Carmelo questionable with a migraine

 

[divol]

I wouldn't back Kings if they were home dogs by 10 points to the Sixers...

 

[nbafan88]

Maybe melo should let Rondo put on a show to showcase his abilities :rofl:

 

[nbafan88]

Going against the raptors right now is just silly. In serious contention for the #1 l seed.

 

[nbafan88]

The odd start time in Dallas sucks for the 1h over.

 

[divol]

Home favs, first game back of 5+ game road trip on B2B are 26%ATS and 0% on 6 game road trip like the knicks today:max bet on SAC+1

Knicks are home dogs already...

 

[divol]

Took Dallas to win as a big bet. Parsons is out, but I rate Dallas at least equal to Portland, so home court advantage + Carlisle + tons of experience should make the difference on paper.

I like the Clippers. Took them -7 as medium bet. Clippers off a loss to Memphis and before a loss to the Warriors. They are a lock for the 4th spot and that worries me a bit, but I do feel that Clippers don't want a losing streak heading to the playoffs. NO lose players right and left and after the loss to the wounded Memphis, can't see Clippers losing another one... Not the bet of the century, but I feel it got value.

Jazz got some value, since they are trying to get in to the playoffs spot and what can be better than losses by Dallas and Houston and now Dallas battle Portland. A win should put them in the mix regardless of who wins the game in Dallas. Obviously the line reflects all that, so doubt will play it. Was hoping for 2.40+ odds on ML here...

 

[tuck321]

I wouldn't back Kings if they were home dogs by 10 points to the Sixers...

I would but agree with the general concept

 

[tuck321]

As to Dallas--lets just take it for granted that I will not bet on them

 

[tuck321]

Something of a problem in fading Dallas. Good home record on Sunday although vs poor teams. Still a garbage team.

 

[kdog]

Knicks are home dogs already...

Fading home dogs on a B2B after a loss has been profitable enough to blind bet for a number of years now. 55.5% with a sample size approaching 500.

 

[divol]

55.5% not enough for me to tail blindly...

 

[pip2]

I wouldn't back Kings if they were home dogs by 10 points to the Sixers...

Betting on the Pelicans or the Rockets or the Kings is like betting on which direction the glass is going to fly when you throw a beer bottle against the wall.

 

[kdog]

55.5% not enough for me to tail blindly...

LOL, well then feel free to post any 55.5% angles you don't bother with because those of us who don't hate money will be more than happy to bet them.

 

[divol]

There over 500 of them in my database...

 

[divol]

I don't know what odds you take, but most of my bets are around 1.93-1.94 odds average.
55.5x1.94=107.67. With 55.5% angles, you will have many losing seasons, because there will be many seasons and many months when the system will drop below 52%. Also, because of the fact that there are so many trends, you can easily lose your entire bank due to simple bad run.

I play auto bet on 65%+ trends and selectively between 60% - 64.9%.

 

[kdog]

This is not a trend, it is an angle and there is a difference between the two. A trend is something that has no reason to exist other than variance (days of the week results type stuff). Betting those is akin to betting coin flips and hoping they continue to come up heads. They may and some may for long periods but that doesn't change the fact that it's just variance and will at some point regress back toward 50%.

Angles, conversely, start with a premise, in this case the premise being a team that did not play well enough to cover the spread and now must play again on short rest (and sometimes travel) has a better than even chance of not playing well again. Flipping a biased coin if you will.

 

[divol]

Angle and trend are the same in my eyes. Trends, most of them, have reasoning as well.

Good rebounding team against bad one or a team that usually doesn't turn the ball over much, off a game, where they turned the ball over and stuff like that - angles - the fact that we call them trends, doesn't mean they aren't angles

Trends also start with a premise, at least 80% of them (that I stored in my database). They either were born from situations where I wondered "what happens if" and checked and found out that results back my way of thinking or trends that I found by others, that I found some sense in them (and good hit percentage).

Trends are made by people and usually when they try to think about different scenarios where they see an edge... Same as angles...

 

[divol]

For example, you wrote "Fading home dogs on a B2B after a loss has been profitable enough to blind bet for a number of years now. 55.5% with a sample size approaching 500" - why is it an angle and not a trend. Why home dogs are worst in B2B spots off a loss then away dogs or home favorites or away favorites? Just because the percentage suggests that? Seriously, I can't think of a reason why home dogs would be worst than away favorites. So is this just a trend that will go back to 50% sooner or later or an angle and I'm just missing something? I think we can look at it the way we want...

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