Successfull Handicapping System-

[Sammy Meatballs]

All cappers must lose before they learn how to win. Like everyone I have lost in the past, but have tinkered and came up with a system that has rendered me successfull as I have won consistently for over a year.

One may ask how I have done this? I will share my strategy with the cappers on this forum, as this forum has given me some great info and is filled with great people. I may have to write a few articles on this, but this system works and you guys will see after you read it, that it works.

KEY PRINCIPLES- If you can master these 2 principles you will win constistently.

Patience- Any smart and successfull investor is patient. I am sure you all
know impatient bettors. We all know what happens to impatient people when it comes to investing? In gambling the lure of the big money turns people impatient. Everyone looks at the end goal which is to say to people "Hey I got rich off gambling" Look at my new car that I bought"
A patient gambler is a meticulous and strategic player that will win.

Discipline- THis is paramount in any profession to be disciplined? Why would it be any different in sports gambling? Discipline is 100 times more important in gambling than in any other field such as office work, or police officer. You can be undisciplined in a job and get away with it, but if you are undiscip0lined in gambling you will be broke.

(DO NOT CHASE LOSSES) In fact when the bounces start going away from you, personally I use a 4 loss system, where my bets decrease in half, until I can gain a win back, then i resume to normal amounts.

DISCIPLINE is important for this reason, many cappers win more than 50% of the time, ex they win 6 weeks of NFL, and one weekend they lose 3 games on Sunday and then double up on Monday Night and lose all of their profits from the season in 2 days? What did I say about Discipline?

There is nothing worse than getting screwed by a last second loss, like GBAY yesterday as Denver backers were screwed. A loss like that leaves a sour taste and people try to chase the loss, because it hurts so much.

You almost have to have the attitude that you laugh it off, and forget about it, and in a way be happy that it happened, because you know you are smarter to fall in the trap to chase and lose all common sense.

Denver lost yesterday but that is an isolated incident, we must look to the future and forget the past. Sometimes I say yeah I lost today , but I will win tomorrow, and if I lose tomorrow, I will win the next day. I am confident, and it has benefited me.

This board has extreme knowledge of capping and teams and provides winners. My goal here is to help people how to win in our pocket books.

These are the basic principles I use to win, and I use the simplest principles and apply them to capping weekly to win.

- I will briefly explain a few of my principles that I will explain in a future article.

* Never play with a local bookie, play with a trusted offshore, as playing with credit is not a good option for cappers.

*I use a Market assessment system- Bet Teams- Low Value- Bet against Teams with High Value-
Ex- Indy last week was low value from Vegas, Carolina was HIgh value- Bet on Indy

* The most important principle is knowing how many games to bet. I have found that limiting games is a sure successfull strategy. Simple rule of Finance- Go to Casino your odds are the best by betting your bankroll on one hand of blackjack. Longer you stay in Casino, more odds shift against you. I am thinking that more games you bet in Sports, odds and juice hurt you.
Saturday college football ex- is a trap there are winners and losers. However Vegas knows that they have basically clouded cappers judgement because there are so many games to pick from. You have to make a short list and select your top games and live with them.

IN Summary the most valuable lesson here is to let the winners flow to you. Do not force a game with a big bet. What has to be done is you have to be patient and scout ahead and let the games come to you.
Its kind of like being at a strip bar, let the strippers come to you as they always will, it is not necessary for you to make the first move.

I work in the foreign exchange market and I had to learn the principles of investing and take a course so I could master the basics? Sports betting does not have any courses for cappers as every capper has their own style. One would be dead broke if they just started investing money in the foreign exchange market with no knowlege and courses.

I have put myself through my own Sports betting course, with my principles and kind of believe that I have like a degree in it now, which has given me the tools to win.

Before we win we need to master the basics of sports betting.


Hope this helps

 

[Throwback420]

Great Thread Sammy. I agree with almost everything.

 

[chancedog]

Sammy great call at half time last nite.
As for the article its nothin new I think you have pointed out the obvious but don't diagree with anything you said

 

[BlitzBandit]

* The most important principle is knowing how many games to bet. I have found that limiting games is a sure successfull strategy. Simple rule of Finance- Go to Casino your odds are the best by betting your bankroll on one hand of blackjack. Longer you stay in Casino, more odds shift against you. I am thinking that more games you bet in Sports, odds and juice hurt you.

Saturday college football ex- is a trap there are winners and losers. However Vegas knows that they have basically clouded cappers judgement because there are so many games to pick from. You have to make a short list and select your top games and live with them.

I kinda disagree with what I highlighted...

the goal is to hit a certain percentage (usually 60% is a the goal to strive for)... whether you do it with 20 games in a season or 150 games in a season... doesn't matter...

The point I'm making is.. you don't want to limit your plays to a certain amount, you should play what you really feel confident in... and if you are a good capper, then the odds will be with you...

if you like 8 plays one week and only 3 plays the next week, then just play those... there would be no point in liking 8 plays and forcing yourself to only play three.. and then watching those three lose and the other 5 you liked, but didn't play, win...

as long as you are playing what you are confident in and not going big on any one play, you should do alright for the season... at least that's how I see it.

 

[spanishshark]

I kinda disagree with what I highlighted...

the goal is to hit a certain percentage (usually 60% is a the goal to strive for)... whether you do it with 20 games in a season or 150 games in a season... doesn't matter...

The point I'm making is.. you don't want to limit your plays to a certain amount, you should play what you really feel confident in... and if you are a good capper, then the odds will be with you...

if you like 8 plays one week and only 3 plays the next week, then just play those... there would be no point in liking 8 plays and forcing yourself to only play three.. and then watching those three lose and the other 5 you liked, but didn't play, win...

as long as you are playing what you are confident in and not going big on any one play, you should do alright for the season... at least that's how I see it.

I dont know Blitz. I seem to do pretty well by limiting my bets. I dont chase either. I think I have adopted that style of gambling he talks about after years of learning from my mistakes. Just like she sais " Nice and steady" it goes a long way..hehe :cheers:

 

[BlitzBandit]

I seem to do pretty well by limiting my bets.

I have adopted that style of gambling he talks about after years of learning from my mistakes.

and after years of learning from mine, I have done pretty well flat betting (roughly) and not leaving out the plays I like... it has paid off for me on the long haul..

hell shark, you remember two years ago when I hit 70% on 100 plays at that other site.. had I limited my plays, I may not have done that... but I guess it's each to his own.. everyone is different and has their own ways of doing things... I guess I would have to just recommend for everyone to do what works best for themselves.

btw.. nice avatar.. hehe.

 

[BlitzBandit]

btw shark.. I disagreed with the limiting plays part.. not the chasing part.. I don't like chasing either...

I make my plays and try to stick to em... that's why I didn't add more units to GB yesterday... just left it as it was...

I also don't mess with halves or teasers... it's just not me.. that's why I say each to their own.

 

[Joe Public]

I think it totally depends and ends up being a personal thing.

Some guys do well betting lots of games other people do well narrowing it down to one or two games.

As was said, it ends up being a personal percentage thing, however you get there is fine, so long as you can get there.

 

[spanishshark]

hell shark, you remember two years ago when I hit 70% on 100 plays at that other site.. had I limited my plays, I may not have done that....

:smiley_acbe: Yeah bro, and I know you can do it again. I just cant play more than 6 or 7 plays in one day. I just try to pick as many as I can at first glance and then narrow them down to my favorites. Whats interesting is that on single game nights on NCAA and NFL I always do the best. I guess I tend to concentrate more on the individual games and maybe get too much in a hurry on multiple game days. But like you said, do what works for you. I guess the point is to not get foolish when you start losing. :cheers: Oh yeah, new attitude, new avatar :whip:

 

[BlitzBandit]

yea.. that's exactly my point.. you're good a picking those one night stands.. hehe... I'm not..

I think Joe got the words out better than I did, but that was exactly my point..

some people are good at picking dogs, others at money lines, others at totals, others at teasers, others at figuring out trends, etc...

hell, I bet even chasing probably isn't bad to those that are comfortable with it and know how to do it.. I mean.. if they play cautiously and have plays ready to backup their originals to help recover any losses.. or whatever..

personally, I'm probably not good at any of that I mentioned above, but I know others are.. so I guess it's all what you can do..

the only thing and the main thing I really agree with completely here is regardless what you do or what methods you use, there has to be discipline.

 

[PRECISEwon]

*I use a Market assessment system- Bet Teams- Low Value- Bet against Teams with High Value-
Ex- Indy last week was low value from Vegas, Carolina was HIgh value- Bet on Indy


can you elaborate a little more on this...are you talking betting %'s of the public? Or value coming from a team who's hot or not ats?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Blitz Bandit it really depends on your knowledge of the sport. If you can pick 8 games then feel free to bet 8 games as long as they are good. You can win doing it that way for sure.

What I was referring to was that I may like 10 games on a Saturday College game but may be real sure on a CFl game and lets say 2 COllege games. I would play those 3 games larger instead of playing all 8 games.

By limiting the games what I have done is like a baseball team, I have said here is my #1 starter (BECKETT) here is my # 2 starter (SCHILLING) and # 3 starter (FRANCIS) I have taken my best 3 games (pitchers and bet my money on them. SOme weeks I may have more or less games.

Blitz Bandit I have won both ways betting more games and less games but as SPANISH SHARK pointed out he said he wins on days when there is 1 college or NFL games. That is true as those days are easier to focus and narrow it down. On a busy college game if you bet a lot of games you are asking for many teams to come through and win for you, and many bounces to go your way.

Ex- I am strong on 2 plays- I bet $500 each, win i am up $1000

Bet 8 plays for 125$ each, I need to hit 8-0 to win roughly a $1000

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

*I use a Market assessment system- Bet Teams- Low Value- Bet against Teams with High Value-
Ex- Indy last week was low value from Vegas, Carolina was HIgh value- Bet on Indy


can you elaborate a little more on this...are you talking betting %'s of the public? Or value coming from a team who's hot or not ats?

I do not use public betting percentages and numbers such as this.

In Sports betting we are betting against the line of VEGAS. If we feel a line is good meaning too low we will bet it as a favorite. IF we feel a line is too high as an underdog we may bet that too.

I analyze the following 3 games from last week to do a market value test.

Ohio State -3.5 at Penn State- I thought that after considering Ohio State and their big game experience that Vegas has underestimated them meaning they are low value. This means they are putting Penn state as High, meaning they are expecting them to give Ohio state a good game and possibly win. Market value is HIgh on Penn state- I bet here on Ohio State because primarily from a football standpoint they are better and I knew they would beat Penn state. From a market point of view you are getting a good line and low value on Ohio state- Simple principle Buy LOW Sell HIGH-

Indy-6.5 at Carolina- Indy was very low in Vegas mind's last week. Everyone thought the line should be 9 or 10. Carolina was extremely high in Vegas minds, and Vinny Testverde was starting as well. This is a simple case of buying the Colts at a low value vs a very HIgh valued Carolina team.

Washington at New England- This line was set about right. Both teams were rated about fair market value and New ENg blew them out.

I can tell you guys in the CFL this week BC Lions are -6 at home to Calgary Stampeders. Both teams have clinched their spots but Calgary will play their backup QB, and BC has 3 starting QB's who all at one time this season were the starter for the team. This means no matter who plays they will have a starter in this game.

At BC-6 market value is very low on them, and Calgary is very high. This would be an easy bet for BC to win this game. However I need to verify the Qb rotations and other starters, but I can see CGY mailing this one in, and BC will likely have Former MVP and Grey Cup QB DICKENSON playing into the second half of this game.

When you really sit down and think about it, we are betting on games using a Spread that Vegas has come up with to try and get 50% even betting on a game. Bettors will bet the games they feel Vegas is way off on the line.
PERCEPTION and REALITY are 2 different things my friends:

Ex- PERCEPTION is that the Florida Gators are an unstoppable offensive team and is very good and were -8 over Georgia last week.
REALITY is that the GATORS cannot stop anyone on D and cannot lay such large numbers anymore.

Ex- PERCEPTION was that the Colts would lay down and lay an Egg in Carolina, and struggle for the win.
REALITY is that COLTS are much better than the PANTHERS who are terrible especially with a 45 year old QB starting.

PERCEPTION- Tennesse Volunteers are a good tough hard nosed team.
REALITY- Tennesee Defense is absolutely terrible this year.

Perception- Penn state would defeat Ohio state and upset them.
Reality- Ohio state is hands down better than any big 10 team, a fast Pac 10 team will give them fits or a Sec team, but no Big team can touch the BUCKEYES and TRESSEL.

Once I like a team to win from an X's and O's standpoint I then do a market value test to ensure I am not betting on a high team, and then do a quick Perception and Reality test.

 

[BlitzBandit]

By limiting the games what I have done is like a baseball team, I have said here is my #1 starter (BECKETT) here is my # 2 starter (SCHILLING) and # 3 starter (FRANCIS) I have taken my best 3 games (pitchers and bet my money on them. SOme weeks I may have more or less games.

what I am saying is instead of saying here is my #1 starter, here is my # 2 starter, and here is my #3 starter, why don't you just turn in your fantasy roster.

On a busy college game if you bet a lot of games you are asking for many teams to come through and win for you, and many bounces to go your way.

Ex- I am strong on 2 plays- I bet $500 each, win i am up $1000

Bet 8 plays for 125$ each, I need to hit 8-0 to win roughly a $1000

at the same time, if you bet two games, you have to get both right or you are in the hole...

betting 8 games you like, you have to lose 4 to be in the hole.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

The more games you bet the juice will also factor in as well. It is harder to go 8-0 than 2-0. i can assure you that.

 

[BlitzBandit]

It is harder to go 8-0 than 2-0. i can assure you that.

wow, I think you just threw out the statement I disagree with the most in this thread...

Vegas sets the line so that every game is equally as difficult to pick.. not one play is any easier than another... what makes them easy or hard is the quality of capper that is capping the games...

If you are a great capper, then you will know what to pick out.. if you are not, then you won't.... what may be an easy pick to you may be a hard pick to others and what is an easy pick for others may be a tough one for you... everyone is different and everyones' methods are different...

You are saying 2-0 is easier to do than 8-0, but the thing is, you are still trying to go to 8-0 yourself... so the only difference is it will take you four weeks to do it when others can do it in 1... but the difficulty of reaching that 8-0 mark is the same.. For example, if my best week was a 12-1 week... it would be difficult for you to go 12-1.. even if you are betting 2 games a week...

the bottom line is whether you play 2 games a week or 20 games a week.. the goal is still 60% and everyone has just as much of a difficult time reaching that goal, regardless how many plays they make each week.

if 2-0 were easy to do week in and week out, then I would assume you'd be hitting over 90% at the end of the season... but odds are, if you are good, then you will be hitting at a percentage rate right around where most good cappers are (even those that play alot of games).

Betting 2 games a week doesn't make you a better capper than those betting 8 games... it's just your way of capping. You feel 2-0 is easier to do because that's how you are comfortable capping. Those that bet 8 games a week and have a good feel for most teams may feel they have a better shot at reaching 60% betting all the games they like than trying to pick only a couple.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I agree with you above statements, I bet more than 2 games in a week of Football. I was saying I would try and limit the games to 2 possibly per day. But I definitely would bet more than 2 games on the weekend.

Another thing I do is definitely pick 2 games that would be my stand out games of the week.

This week I have found it in CFL, it is BC-6.5 now,vs Calgary in CFL.

Calgary is playing the next week on the road in a playoff game. They are resting their starting QB, and are using their backup QB Sankey and third stringer who used to be a receiver on the Minnesota VIKINGS. Calgary is also resting key starters on D and on O.

BC is playing 2 of their top 3 qb's and playing everyone except for one O Lineman. BC has a bye into the west final so they are playing everyone and the Coach said people pay and we will play the starters.

This game above would be one of the two top games of the week that will hit.

 

[PRECISEwon]

BC up to 8 now...

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

BC up to 8 now...

Not surprising as this kid Barrick NEALY will get playing time for CGY. He is not a QB, and without weapons it resembles a receiver playing QB and just throwing the ball up for grabs.

It will be at one point NEALY vs BC QB DICKENSON who was a former MVP of the league.

This line should hit 10 easy by game time as I said once CGY announces they are resting more players. I will check to get the latest on who else may sit for Calgary in this game and post it here on my other thread.

 

[MX_259]

I agree with your analysis on this Sammy. It is very easy to check out the board everyday and make some plays.

And in a single day it is much easier to go 2-0 than it is to go 8-0. If your playing by the spreads. But that isn't really the point here.

To mention 2 weeks of betting totally goes away from you point. Of trying to be a conservative bettor.

Letting the plays come to you is the best way to do it, not that it will guarantee your win, but it has proven to be more successful. For me. Actually I usually make alot of plays, I consider a unit $100 and usually like to make my plays I like $300 dollars. But at the same time I will make a lot of plays for only 5 bucks, that helps me understand where I am being successful, and how a team is doing, it sort of puts you in a situation where if you betting on a team llike Dallas or Pheonix to go over in the first half and they completely fail, it almost puts them into a position to cover the next game. Like Dallas for instance on Friday, the were playing exremely sloppy and then the next day they came out and made it rain. Pheonix played extremely sloppy first half against Seattle, won the game and then lost the next day to the Lakers, now they have Cleveland at home tonight, if everyone is healthy I am unloading on Pheonix ov. 1st half. I haven't exactly seen Cleveland stop anyone from scoring. And Pheonix is due for a break out game in their home opener. Besides that there total isn't getting to much respect. If there 1st half total is 55 that is a gift. It is worth my risk.

I am not trying to say I have a guarenteed system of any sort. But what you explain in your thread makes the best sense and it never hurts to reread what you preach to yourself. GL.