Strong hitting = wins and +EV

[spottie2935]

i used the data base SDQL to eliminate stiff teams with terrible hitting.

I used a line of + or = to +130 or more. I eliminated teams to data that have had more than 20 + failures as a dog that cant get 4 runs.

Teams I eliminated
Rockies
Royals
Nationals
Tigers
A's


Then for whatever the reason there seems to be a reason that day of the week games matter. The best dog results came on Tuesday Friday and Sunday.

If our dog team can score 3+runs it is 20-10 SU on the season.

Betting against bad pitchers on middle to great hitting teams should be great +EV. The key is hitting and opportunities to score.

 

[spottie2935]

we need to source teams with hitting that are dogs and ALL teams with no elimination that score 3+ runs win profits. Not all good hitting teams win but its important to eliminate what we know as teams that cant get it done.

 

[spottie2935]

2023 teams that are Eliminated from my list are

Tigers
Rockies
A's
Royals
Nationals

 

[spottie2935]

Now if one is interested in in-game wagers one would keep a sharp eye on good teams that can score lots like Atlanta Houston

These teams also need a good bullpen era:
Yankees
Houston
Cleveland
Padres
Angels
Orioles

If thee teams are down early and can hold their opponent runs later in the game they can charge back at + money

I dont have the figure for this but betting on strong teams that give up early runs can charge back.

If this is interesting to you keep your data or better yet sort through the 2023 season and see the record. I will be doing this it just takes time. The problem is knowing the in game line.

Winning baseball bets is being able to score runs at a plus moneyline

 

[spottie2935]

Just by going with what the statistical data the best teams to back when losing in game are

LAA
BALT
ATL
NYY
HOU

I would say losing by 1 or 2 runs would make most sense.

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting stuff

 

[spottie2935]

Friday happenings:

these are the teams that can come back Friday

LAA Won 3-0
BALT down 3 early and loss 0-1
ATL Won 8-1
NYY down 4-1 early loss 0-2
HOU down 2-0 late no play

0-2

 

[spottie2935]

I did a little editing and added total>=9 which means our dog team total is expected to score 3+runs

Also eliminated some days of the week. In pitching it seems a lot of good starters pitch on the weekends and Wednesdays seem to be bad dog day with travel ahead maybe.

Anyways (as shown ) doing all that get the query to over 10% ROI since 2019.

 

[spottie2935]

So far the 2023 season is over 9% ROI

 

[spottie2935]

And if we eliminate big lines >200 odds it moves to 12.7% ROI in this season 2023

 

[spottie2935]

As I searched further the Month of June is the only Month not in the Black. This year the bad run in June continues. catching this early in April and May are best but July and beyond still profit at 9.5% ROI

play all games with lines +120 or more but less than +200. Also Eliminate bad hitting teams. I listed some of the worst. Eliminate Wednesday Friday and Saturday.

Eliminate hot teams winning streak of 5+ and eliminate bad teams on a losing streak of -5 in a row and counting.

Finally the strongest ROI is when the total is 9, 9.5 or 10

If I do all this my ROI is almost 14% and over 6k in profits betting $100 units since 2019

 

[spottie2935]

Todays play is Cardinals +142 but there are problems with this as June is a bad month for this query. None the less I am going to track this