Defenses Take Control Of Sunday Night Football Between Patriots And Chiefs
Week 1: Pittsburgh at New England
When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
NFL Pick: Under
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the total at 53. "Under" lovers have dropped that total almost everywhere to 49.5 while 51.5 hangs in the balance at 5Dimes. One trend that speaks in their favor is that the "under" is 4-1 in the last five match-ups between these teams since 2015.
New England's Offense Is Slated For A Slow Start
Week 1 is a terrible time for New England's offense largely because of its offensive line. While veteran presence is not really an issue, the Patriots have lost some would-be starters like left tackle Trent Brown to free agency and center David Andrews to injury. The issue is figuring out which player will block at which position and building chemistry with the influx of new players.
Pittsburgh's front seven suffers no such issues with continuity or chemistry. It looks to build off last year's success where it ranked third in sack rate. The defensive line still features Cameron Heyward who enters the season with two straight Pro Bowl appearances. PFF graded Stephon Tuitt as the 21st-best defensive lineman last year and Javon Hargrave was graded even higher in the latter portion of last year. Hargrave will build off that late-season success to feast on New England's backup center. The linebacking crew is even faster with top-10 draft pick Devin Bush and his 4.43 40-yard dash speed. Neutralizing Tom Brady has always been a key to hampering New England's offense and Pittsburgh can achieve this key by dominating the line of scrimmage.
With N'Keal Harry injured, Josh Gordon probably rusty after taking so much time off, Demaryius Thomas looking to regain form after suffering a torn achilles, and Gronk injured, Brady doesn't really have a deep threat. Running back Sony Michel has been working heavily on his pass-catching ability, although New England already has running backs who have developed this ability. So expect a lot of short passes both out of the backfield and to Julian Edelman. Pittsburgh will make Brady work slowly and run off a lot of clock in order to score.
Pittsburgh's Offense Misses Key Weapons
Sunday night will represent unchartered territory for the Steelers' offense as it will proceed without two departed stars, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. While Pittsburgh didn't need to miss Bell last year because of its superior run-blocking, Brown's absence is a big deal. He's arguably the league's most talented receiver in so many respects and he always draws significant attention from the defense, which leaves other players open.
JuJu Smith-Schuster will be Big Ben's top target with James Washington as the number-two guy. While the Steelers are losing depth and quality at the receiver position, New England is extremely deep in its secondary. It boasts two elite corners. Stephon Gilmore had the league's highest coverage grade on passes of 10 or more yards and also led the NFL in opposing completion percentage. J.C. Jackson also ranked among league leaders in categories like forced incompletion rate, opposing completion rate, and opposing passer rating. Corner Jason McCourty amassed similarly elite stats.
Safety Devin McCourty has been New England's highest-graded defender countless times since 2010 and it took two amazing seasons from Gilmore to edge him in this respect in each of the last two years. I could see Devin helping Jackson against JuJu while Gilmore draws Washington. No matter what, New England easily boasts the quality in its secondary to limit Pittsburgh's reduced passing attack.
New England's run defense can compete with the remaining strength of Pittsburgh's offense, its offensive line. Lawrence Guy graded as the 11th-best interior lineman last year while Danny Schelton is an up-and-comer who's always leaned on his behemoth proportions as a run stuffer. The linebacking crew still features stalwarts like Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy.
Conclusion
Both passing attacks will struggle to get going -- New England's because it lacks pass-catching threats downfield and because it'll have to contend with an offensive line in flux against a vicious Steeler front seven. Pittsburgh's will struggle against an elite Patriot secondary. Both offenses will have to grind their way downfield, largely relying on running backs -- New England with Michel between the tackles and its running backs out of the backfield and Pittsburgh with Conner against a consistently formidable Patriot front seven.
Week 1: Pittsburgh at New England
When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
NFL Pick: Under
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the total at 53. "Under" lovers have dropped that total almost everywhere to 49.5 while 51.5 hangs in the balance at 5Dimes. One trend that speaks in their favor is that the "under" is 4-1 in the last five match-ups between these teams since 2015.
New England's Offense Is Slated For A Slow Start
Week 1 is a terrible time for New England's offense largely because of its offensive line. While veteran presence is not really an issue, the Patriots have lost some would-be starters like left tackle Trent Brown to free agency and center David Andrews to injury. The issue is figuring out which player will block at which position and building chemistry with the influx of new players.
Pittsburgh's front seven suffers no such issues with continuity or chemistry. It looks to build off last year's success where it ranked third in sack rate. The defensive line still features Cameron Heyward who enters the season with two straight Pro Bowl appearances. PFF graded Stephon Tuitt as the 21st-best defensive lineman last year and Javon Hargrave was graded even higher in the latter portion of last year. Hargrave will build off that late-season success to feast on New England's backup center. The linebacking crew is even faster with top-10 draft pick Devin Bush and his 4.43 40-yard dash speed. Neutralizing Tom Brady has always been a key to hampering New England's offense and Pittsburgh can achieve this key by dominating the line of scrimmage.
With N'Keal Harry injured, Josh Gordon probably rusty after taking so much time off, Demaryius Thomas looking to regain form after suffering a torn achilles, and Gronk injured, Brady doesn't really have a deep threat. Running back Sony Michel has been working heavily on his pass-catching ability, although New England already has running backs who have developed this ability. So expect a lot of short passes both out of the backfield and to Julian Edelman. Pittsburgh will make Brady work slowly and run off a lot of clock in order to score.
Pittsburgh's Offense Misses Key Weapons
Sunday night will represent unchartered territory for the Steelers' offense as it will proceed without two departed stars, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. While Pittsburgh didn't need to miss Bell last year because of its superior run-blocking, Brown's absence is a big deal. He's arguably the league's most talented receiver in so many respects and he always draws significant attention from the defense, which leaves other players open.
JuJu Smith-Schuster will be Big Ben's top target with James Washington as the number-two guy. While the Steelers are losing depth and quality at the receiver position, New England is extremely deep in its secondary. It boasts two elite corners. Stephon Gilmore had the league's highest coverage grade on passes of 10 or more yards and also led the NFL in opposing completion percentage. J.C. Jackson also ranked among league leaders in categories like forced incompletion rate, opposing completion rate, and opposing passer rating. Corner Jason McCourty amassed similarly elite stats.
Safety Devin McCourty has been New England's highest-graded defender countless times since 2010 and it took two amazing seasons from Gilmore to edge him in this respect in each of the last two years. I could see Devin helping Jackson against JuJu while Gilmore draws Washington. No matter what, New England easily boasts the quality in its secondary to limit Pittsburgh's reduced passing attack.
New England's run defense can compete with the remaining strength of Pittsburgh's offense, its offensive line. Lawrence Guy graded as the 11th-best interior lineman last year while Danny Schelton is an up-and-comer who's always leaned on his behemoth proportions as a run stuffer. The linebacking crew still features stalwarts like Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy.
Conclusion
Both passing attacks will struggle to get going -- New England's because it lacks pass-catching threats downfield and because it'll have to contend with an offensive line in flux against a vicious Steeler front seven. Pittsburgh's will struggle against an elite Patriot secondary. Both offenses will have to grind their way downfield, largely relying on running backs -- New England with Michel between the tackles and its running backs out of the backfield and Pittsburgh with Conner against a consistently formidable Patriot front seven.
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