Steelers vs. Bills Wild Card Game: Josh Allen Is A Winter Warrior
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 14, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
T.J. Watt's Absence
Pittsburgh will have to play without superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt.
Especially the All-Pro selection's ability to pressure the opposing quarterback makes him a game-changing defender.
When they don't have to deal with him, opposing offenses are able to operate more easily.
This is evident in Pittsburgh's season last year when Watt missed seven games.
With Watt hurt, the Steelers went from being one of the top defenses to one of the worst, as evident in their radical decline in points allowed, yards allowed, sacks, and takeaways.
In those seven games, they allowed 25.3 points per game, 389.9 yards per game, mustered eight sacks, and produced five takeaways.
Josh Allen Won't Miss Watt
With Watt, one could make an argument that Pittsburgh's defense would perform well.
This argument would rely on Pittsburgh's positive experience against mobile quarterbacks, as an AFC North team that plays Baltimore with mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson twice a year.
But the results of the usual AFC North defensive slugfests are irrelevant to this game, a game between Pittsburgh and a team outside of this division.
Plus, Watt's absence is just so crucial.
Without having to face Watt, teams with mobile quarterbacks crushed the Steelers last year. Two examples are the Eagles and, indeed, the Bills.
Led by mobile quarterback Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia amassed 35 points.
Led by Allen, Buffalo scored 38 points.
On Sunday it is going to be too hard, without Watt, for Pittsburgh to account for the threat that Allen poses both as a passer and as a runner.
He is hard to bring down as a runner, and he has a strong arm as a passer that will pierce the wintry winds that have brought the total down an absurd amount.
In terms of video footage, check out Allen's late drive in snowy weather last year against the Dolphins.
This example helps illustrate how Allen will be more than fine in Sunday's winter conditions.
Good Wide Receivers vs. Steelers Secondary
Even with Watt, Pittsburgh's defense showed plenty of problems this season.
After all, Watt does not cover opposing wide receivers.
Good wide receivers repeatedly plague Pittsburgh's secondary.
For example, one of Seattle's D.K. Metcalf's three 100-yard receiving games came against Pittsburgh.
Furthermore, Houston's Nico Collins amassed 168 receiving yards against the Steelers.
This will be a great game for Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, both of whom are already capable of reaching 100 yards receiving in any given game.
Tight Ends
Pittsburgh has had significant injury- and performance-related issues at linebacker, to the extent that they've had to bring back Myles Jack from retirement.
These issues have manifested themselves in difficulties covering opposing tight ends.
Seattle's Noah Fant, for example, achieved a season-best in receptions and almost one in receiving yards when he faced the Steelers.
New England's Hunter Henry exceeded his yards per game average by eleven and caught two touchdowns against the Steelers.
Jacksonville's Evan Engram led his team with ten receptions for 88 yards against the Steelers.
The list goes on. Tight ends repeatedly perform significantly better than usual and play stronger roles for their teams when they face Pittsburgh.
Buffalo's pass attack matches up particularly well against the Steelers because it boasts two very capable pass-catching tight ends in Dawson Knox and his sizzling teammate Dalton Kincaid, who has exceeded 80 receiving yards in two straight games.
James Cook
Pittsburgh ranks 19th against the run, as its issues at linebacker – which have often forced top safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to play closer to the line of scrimmage – contribute to the facility with which opposing running backs thrive.
Buffalo running back James Cook allows his team's offense to remain balanced, as the threat that he poses as a runner complements that posed by Allen.
Cook amassed over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in the regular season.
He is fast and has excellent breakaway speed, but he also amasses a lot of yards after contact, which shows how hard he is to bring down.
His ability will make Buffalo's offense balanced and therefore less predictable, which especially his capacity to achieve big plays will contribute to the Bills' team total.
Pittsburgh's Rush Attack
At some point Allen and Buffalo's potent pass attack will pull away, but until Allen accomplishes this Pittsburgh will be able to rely on its ground game.
Aided by improved offensive line play, the Steelers have become one of the NFL's top rushing teams.
They average the third-most rushing yards per game in the past three weeks.
Najee Harris enters today's game having rushed for over 110 yards in two straight weeks, and fellow running back Jaylen Warren also has a couple of 100-yard rushing outputs to his name this season.
Both running backs will exploit a Buffalo defense that has struggled against the run this season, as the Bills miss key linebacker Matt Milano and are particularly vulnerable stopping outside runs.
Expect Pittsburgh to follow Miami – who was very efficient last week running the ball against the Bills but did not run enough – in steering clear of Buffalo's run-stuffers in the middle.
Mason Rudolph
Pittsburgh will ride the hot hand and keep starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
Rudolph has proven to be both efficient and effective: his passer rating in his last three games were 124 against the Bengals, 112.2 against the Seahawks, and 115 against the Ravens.
He's making great use of big-play wide receiver George Pickens, especially, who benefits from the absence of Buffalo's top cornerback.
Takeaway
While Pittsburgh likely won't reach 30 points, as it did against the Bengals and Seahawks, in the wintry conditions against a better pass defense in Buffalo, its ability to force defenses to perform worse than usual indicate that their ground game and pass attack will still contribute significantly to the "over."
But Buffalo will have an even easier time scoring thanks to its stronger quarterback play, its better and deeper group of pass-catchers, and with the softness of Pittsburgh's defense especially without Watt.
When the Bills do pull away with their advanced weaponry exploiting Pittsburgh's lack of pass rush, impoverished linebacker group, and vulnerable secondary, the gap in offensive firepower will be more apparent since Pittsburgh will have to abandon the run, which is the best part of its offense.
That's why I hesitate to play the Steelers.
But I do think the Steelers will contribute meaningfully to the "over" hit in what will be a very high-scoring game in which Buffalo's offense will have the easiest time.
Best Bet: Over 36 at -107 with BetOnline & Bills team total over 26.5 points at +160 with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 14, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
T.J. Watt's Absence
Pittsburgh will have to play without superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt.
Especially the All-Pro selection's ability to pressure the opposing quarterback makes him a game-changing defender.
When they don't have to deal with him, opposing offenses are able to operate more easily.
This is evident in Pittsburgh's season last year when Watt missed seven games.
With Watt hurt, the Steelers went from being one of the top defenses to one of the worst, as evident in their radical decline in points allowed, yards allowed, sacks, and takeaways.
In those seven games, they allowed 25.3 points per game, 389.9 yards per game, mustered eight sacks, and produced five takeaways.
Josh Allen Won't Miss Watt
With Watt, one could make an argument that Pittsburgh's defense would perform well.
This argument would rely on Pittsburgh's positive experience against mobile quarterbacks, as an AFC North team that plays Baltimore with mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson twice a year.
But the results of the usual AFC North defensive slugfests are irrelevant to this game, a game between Pittsburgh and a team outside of this division.
Plus, Watt's absence is just so crucial.
Without having to face Watt, teams with mobile quarterbacks crushed the Steelers last year. Two examples are the Eagles and, indeed, the Bills.
Led by mobile quarterback Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia amassed 35 points.
Led by Allen, Buffalo scored 38 points.
On Sunday it is going to be too hard, without Watt, for Pittsburgh to account for the threat that Allen poses both as a passer and as a runner.
He is hard to bring down as a runner, and he has a strong arm as a passer that will pierce the wintry winds that have brought the total down an absurd amount.
In terms of video footage, check out Allen's late drive in snowy weather last year against the Dolphins.
This example helps illustrate how Allen will be more than fine in Sunday's winter conditions.
Good Wide Receivers vs. Steelers Secondary
Even with Watt, Pittsburgh's defense showed plenty of problems this season.
After all, Watt does not cover opposing wide receivers.
Good wide receivers repeatedly plague Pittsburgh's secondary.
For example, one of Seattle's D.K. Metcalf's three 100-yard receiving games came against Pittsburgh.
Furthermore, Houston's Nico Collins amassed 168 receiving yards against the Steelers.
This will be a great game for Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, both of whom are already capable of reaching 100 yards receiving in any given game.
Tight Ends
Pittsburgh has had significant injury- and performance-related issues at linebacker, to the extent that they've had to bring back Myles Jack from retirement.
These issues have manifested themselves in difficulties covering opposing tight ends.
Seattle's Noah Fant, for example, achieved a season-best in receptions and almost one in receiving yards when he faced the Steelers.
New England's Hunter Henry exceeded his yards per game average by eleven and caught two touchdowns against the Steelers.
Jacksonville's Evan Engram led his team with ten receptions for 88 yards against the Steelers.
The list goes on. Tight ends repeatedly perform significantly better than usual and play stronger roles for their teams when they face Pittsburgh.
Buffalo's pass attack matches up particularly well against the Steelers because it boasts two very capable pass-catching tight ends in Dawson Knox and his sizzling teammate Dalton Kincaid, who has exceeded 80 receiving yards in two straight games.
James Cook
Pittsburgh ranks 19th against the run, as its issues at linebacker – which have often forced top safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to play closer to the line of scrimmage – contribute to the facility with which opposing running backs thrive.
Buffalo running back James Cook allows his team's offense to remain balanced, as the threat that he poses as a runner complements that posed by Allen.
Cook amassed over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in the regular season.
He is fast and has excellent breakaway speed, but he also amasses a lot of yards after contact, which shows how hard he is to bring down.
His ability will make Buffalo's offense balanced and therefore less predictable, which especially his capacity to achieve big plays will contribute to the Bills' team total.
Pittsburgh's Rush Attack
At some point Allen and Buffalo's potent pass attack will pull away, but until Allen accomplishes this Pittsburgh will be able to rely on its ground game.
Aided by improved offensive line play, the Steelers have become one of the NFL's top rushing teams.
They average the third-most rushing yards per game in the past three weeks.
Najee Harris enters today's game having rushed for over 110 yards in two straight weeks, and fellow running back Jaylen Warren also has a couple of 100-yard rushing outputs to his name this season.
Both running backs will exploit a Buffalo defense that has struggled against the run this season, as the Bills miss key linebacker Matt Milano and are particularly vulnerable stopping outside runs.
Expect Pittsburgh to follow Miami – who was very efficient last week running the ball against the Bills but did not run enough – in steering clear of Buffalo's run-stuffers in the middle.
Mason Rudolph
Pittsburgh will ride the hot hand and keep starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
Rudolph has proven to be both efficient and effective: his passer rating in his last three games were 124 against the Bengals, 112.2 against the Seahawks, and 115 against the Ravens.
He's making great use of big-play wide receiver George Pickens, especially, who benefits from the absence of Buffalo's top cornerback.
Takeaway
While Pittsburgh likely won't reach 30 points, as it did against the Bengals and Seahawks, in the wintry conditions against a better pass defense in Buffalo, its ability to force defenses to perform worse than usual indicate that their ground game and pass attack will still contribute significantly to the "over."
But Buffalo will have an even easier time scoring thanks to its stronger quarterback play, its better and deeper group of pass-catchers, and with the softness of Pittsburgh's defense especially without Watt.
When the Bills do pull away with their advanced weaponry exploiting Pittsburgh's lack of pass rush, impoverished linebacker group, and vulnerable secondary, the gap in offensive firepower will be more apparent since Pittsburgh will have to abandon the run, which is the best part of its offense.
That's why I hesitate to play the Steelers.
But I do think the Steelers will contribute meaningfully to the "over" hit in what will be a very high-scoring game in which Buffalo's offense will have the easiest time.
Best Bet: Over 36 at -107 with BetOnline & Bills team total over 26.5 points at +160 with BetOnline
