Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Steelers vs. Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Monday, December 21, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
The First Turnover of the game will be
There will be a lot of passing done in this game.
On the one hand, Pittsburgh owns the NFL’s sixth-highest pass-play percentage. The Steelers throw the ball over 62 percent of the time.
On the other hand, Cincinnati — which is a double-digit underdog at the sports betting sites — promises to be down by a lot against an angry rival in Pittsburgh which will want to end its two-game losing streak.
Ben Roethlisberger is always at risk to throw an interception. His wide receivers run a ton of go routes and he often tries to hit them. Overall, he throws deep balls at the fourth-highest rate.
While he attempts a lot of deep balls, he isn’t good at them. As an aging quarterback — he’s 38 — his arm strength is deteriorating. His deep ball accuracy also is often poor.
So he ranks 33rd in deep ball completion percentage. His problems with the deep ball also help explain why he ranks in the bottom half among starting quarterbacks in danger plays and interceptable passes.
Given the high number of passes, of risky or deep passes, and of poorly thrown passes that he attempts per game, it should come as no surprise that Roethlisberger has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games.
Quality of the opposing secondary has not factored into this trend. So it’s no objection that the Bengals don’t exactly have an elite secondary. Roethlisberger even threw an interception against Jacksonville.
For Cincinnati, Ryan Finley will make his first NFL start. Finley has had minimal playing time, all of which has come because the Bengals had no other choice.
During his playing time, the second-year product of NC State has really struggled. He’s completing just over half of his passes.
With two interceptions in 19 pass attempts, Finley has the third-highest interception rate behind Kendall Hinton, the wide receiver who started at quarterback for Denver, and Robert Griffin III.
Pittsburgh promises to intercept him multiple times. With their second-highest sack rate, the Steelers will put Finley under pressure.
Cincinnati’s pass protection has consistently ranked towards the bottom of the league. So even Joe Burrow, when he was still healthy, and who is more mobile, was sacked four times when these teams first met.
Finley himself has already been sacked seven times
The Steelers also have a strong secondary filled with playmakers. Of course, they are helped by their own pass rush, which reliably forces the opponent into attempting bad passes.
They lead the league in opposing interceptions thrown per game.
For the above reasoning, you want to look for interception props to have the “over” on.
One way of using the above information is to bet that the first turnover of the game will be an interception.
Best Bet: Interception at -175 with Bovada
Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under Passing Yards
in terms of passer rating, Roethlisberger has had four of his five worst performances this season in each of his team’s last four games.
Opposing defenses have it figured out. They know that Roethlisberger — and his receivers deserve some blame for this too — struggles completing deep passes, as I noted above.
So they defend the short routes very aggressively — see Buffalo’s pick six against Big Ben last week for an example.
During Roethlisberger’s ongoing four-game struggle, he would have eclipsed this over/under in passing yardage just once. This one exception was a close game against Washington in which he had to press from behind.
But in this game, Pittsburgh should lead the Bengals easily. The Bengals have backups at running back and quarterback, an atrocious offensive line, and the league’s 27th-ranked run defense.
If there were a game in which the Steelers establish their running vigor, it would be this one. James Conner recently ran for 89 yards on 13 attempts in Jacksonville. So he’s more than capable of helping the Steelers sustain an effective ground attack.
But even if the Steelers don’t succeed much by running, you can count on the Bengals to play those short routes aggressively while Big Ben still has a difficult time converting deep pass attempts.
Best Bet: Under 275 Passing Yards at -114 with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Monday, December 21, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
The First Turnover of the game will be
There will be a lot of passing done in this game.
On the one hand, Pittsburgh owns the NFL’s sixth-highest pass-play percentage. The Steelers throw the ball over 62 percent of the time.
On the other hand, Cincinnati — which is a double-digit underdog at the sports betting sites — promises to be down by a lot against an angry rival in Pittsburgh which will want to end its two-game losing streak.
Ben Roethlisberger is always at risk to throw an interception. His wide receivers run a ton of go routes and he often tries to hit them. Overall, he throws deep balls at the fourth-highest rate.
While he attempts a lot of deep balls, he isn’t good at them. As an aging quarterback — he’s 38 — his arm strength is deteriorating. His deep ball accuracy also is often poor.
So he ranks 33rd in deep ball completion percentage. His problems with the deep ball also help explain why he ranks in the bottom half among starting quarterbacks in danger plays and interceptable passes.
Given the high number of passes, of risky or deep passes, and of poorly thrown passes that he attempts per game, it should come as no surprise that Roethlisberger has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games.
Quality of the opposing secondary has not factored into this trend. So it’s no objection that the Bengals don’t exactly have an elite secondary. Roethlisberger even threw an interception against Jacksonville.
For Cincinnati, Ryan Finley will make his first NFL start. Finley has had minimal playing time, all of which has come because the Bengals had no other choice.
During his playing time, the second-year product of NC State has really struggled. He’s completing just over half of his passes.
With two interceptions in 19 pass attempts, Finley has the third-highest interception rate behind Kendall Hinton, the wide receiver who started at quarterback for Denver, and Robert Griffin III.
Pittsburgh promises to intercept him multiple times. With their second-highest sack rate, the Steelers will put Finley under pressure.
Cincinnati’s pass protection has consistently ranked towards the bottom of the league. So even Joe Burrow, when he was still healthy, and who is more mobile, was sacked four times when these teams first met.
Finley himself has already been sacked seven times
The Steelers also have a strong secondary filled with playmakers. Of course, they are helped by their own pass rush, which reliably forces the opponent into attempting bad passes.
They lead the league in opposing interceptions thrown per game.
For the above reasoning, you want to look for interception props to have the “over” on.
One way of using the above information is to bet that the first turnover of the game will be an interception.
Best Bet: Interception at -175 with Bovada
Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under Passing Yards
in terms of passer rating, Roethlisberger has had four of his five worst performances this season in each of his team’s last four games.
Opposing defenses have it figured out. They know that Roethlisberger — and his receivers deserve some blame for this too — struggles completing deep passes, as I noted above.
So they defend the short routes very aggressively — see Buffalo’s pick six against Big Ben last week for an example.
During Roethlisberger’s ongoing four-game struggle, he would have eclipsed this over/under in passing yardage just once. This one exception was a close game against Washington in which he had to press from behind.
But in this game, Pittsburgh should lead the Bengals easily. The Bengals have backups at running back and quarterback, an atrocious offensive line, and the league’s 27th-ranked run defense.
If there were a game in which the Steelers establish their running vigor, it would be this one. James Conner recently ran for 89 yards on 13 attempts in Jacksonville. So he’s more than capable of helping the Steelers sustain an effective ground attack.
But even if the Steelers don’t succeed much by running, you can count on the Bengals to play those short routes aggressively while Big Ben still has a difficult time converting deep pass attempts.
Best Bet: Under 275 Passing Yards at -114 with BetOnline
