Steelers getting about 8 points of value on MNF

[raems]

0-2 ats with the last one being a straight up loss as a favorite = lost about 2 points off power rating

Bucs 2-0 ats with two straight upsets = gained 3 points in power rating

Line moves 3.5 points off the already inflated open for Tampa. That’s 7.5-8 points of value.

The Steelers are desperate, are consistent winners, and have gained a rare amount of value off recency bias. They’re getting Haden back who curbs their defense against explosive plays a bit, and Tampa’s center is now questionable which is huge for an already dicey o-line.

I’ve lived through the Fitz experience as a Jet fan - he’s fine. Not a long term answer and this will regress, probably tonight.

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting take...

 

[Cappy]

0-2 ats with the last one being a straight up loss as a favorite = lost about 2 points off power rating

Bucs 2-0 ats with two straight upsets = gained 3 points in power rating

Line moves 3.5 points off the already inflated open for Tampa. That’s 7.5-8 points of value.

The Steelers are desperate, are consistent winners, and have gained a rare amount of value off recency bias. They’re getting Haden back who curbs their defense against explosive plays a bit, and Tampa’s center is now questionable which is huge for an already dicey o-line.

I’ve lived through the Fitz experience as a Jet fan - he’s fine. Not a long term answer and this will regress, probably tonight.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[Teapot9]

The Tampa center is officially out per the TB Times

 

[raems]

The Tampa center is officially out per the TB Times

That’s a huge development. This line is officially COMPLETE nonsense now.

 

[rambler882]

0-2 ats with the last one being a straight up loss as a favorite = lost about 2 points off power rating

Bucs 2-0 ats with two straight upsets = gained 3 points in power rating

Line moves 3.5 points off the already inflated open for Tampa. That’s 7.5-8 points of value.

The Steelers are desperate, are consistent winners, and have gained a rare amount of value off recency bias. They’re getting Haden back who curbs their defense against explosive plays a bit, and Tampa’s center is now questionable which is huge for an already dicey o-line.

I’ve lived through the Fitz experience as a Jet fan - he’s fine. Not a long term answer and this will regress, probably tonight.

This is/was a big reason I liked them at -2.5....now it is even more value. I grasp a new play caller in TB, but Pitt this is do or die. I just don't see how a veteran team with Tomlin (I don't think hes amazing, but he does well with motivation) has this team flat tonight.

 

[Vapster]

Great Info/Tips rae. GL

 

[raems]

Tomlin 12-2 on MNF as well.

There’s really nothing that suggests Tampa laying points in this spot against this team is a valuable play.

Also think a lot of the off field stuff is hurting the Steelers perception and wrongfully so. They had a weird game in the rain where Ben chose week 1 as his annual wtf clunker - they were also up 14 in the 4q against what’s proving to be a half decent Browns team. Week 2 - clearly no shame in losing to the best offense in the league right now, not like they’ve been embarrassed in either game.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Yep on it as well. Leggo team mogo

 

[sirwinzalot]

On it in a couple different ways. Completely agree.

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

whoa did the game start early? or did alllll the books have the wrong time listed?

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

lol EVERYBODY had the wrong start time listed at their books. everybody listed 8:25pm as the start. LOL shows you that books really do just copy things off each other and go from there

 

[raems]

Of note: Steelers -6/-7 was a relatively fair number on this game, which is what’s actually in doubt right now.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great work.

 

[Gandolf]

One of the biggest gifts Vegas will give out this year.

 

[Timh]

Nice call Raems.