Steelers -3.5???

twoface

Pretty much a regular
Hey guys,
don't usually bet football, but my buddy at work who usually does well with NFL, has been telling me to just absolutely unload on this game.

However....been doing some reading and i'm getting the idea that this game may be too good to be true.

From what i've gathered so far...

1)Return of Ward and Polamalu
2)Worst rush Defense vs 2nd ranked run offense
3)Denver 1-12 ATS at home in L13
4)As Broncos coach, Mike Shanahan is 9-3 coming off byes

So if the steelers are so dominant why only -3.5??

It looks like a very public play...but then again, so were the pats and the giants.

Looking for some insights and thoughts...
Steelers...yay or nay?
 
The big problem for me on this game is whether their will the return of casey hampton. He makes that run defense work. He has been making his living during this season 2 to 3 yards deep in the backfield. Thus forcing all the o-linemen and fulback to make adjustment blocks to get him out of the way. Offensive guards also are effected by not being able to pull like they normally would. This allows the athletic linebackers to fill gaps extremely well and thus having many gang tackles.

If Polamalu wasn't on that defense, casey hampton would be the defensive mvp.

I am putting some $$ on this game, but it will be in all likleyhood be a double play for me if hampton plays.
 
Steelers are struggling to score especially in the redzone....will probably play pitt ML ..I can see a real close one here..Rookie TE Spaeth should play this week, Ben seems comfortable throwing to him (2td) in goal line situations...
 
i dont like this spot for pitt at all. denver was just beat with the ugly stick by SD and are gonna bring it on national tv this sunday night imo. pitt is one of top teams in the league (but im leary of my #3 power ranking of them).

id rather take as many pts i can get in what i see a close one then lay them.
 
gotta say to pound the shit out of that line... its a gift....

i dont understand it either, i know it seems low, but dont ask questions just go with the gut...


plus i bet the steelers every week anyways... =)



lets hope i dont get that to come back and haunt me now....
 
This line scares me a little if you are going with the black and gold. Just looking at this game on paper I see atleast a 6-7 point spread. And out comes a 3-4 point spread. Maybe vegas knows something that we don't. But I will probably go with the Steelers and hope that the get out to a lead early so that the Denver pass defense doesn't come into play.
 
URL: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...725457,00.html

Tight ends tormenting Broncos' defense

Catches, yardage in middle of field have accelerated By Lee Rasizer, Rocky Mountain News
October 17, 2007


ENGLEWOOD - It might be a case of pregame planning or in- game adjustments.
Either way, when teams are attacking the Broncos with the pass, temporarily deviating from the run-it-right-at-them approach that has been so successful, they aren't taking their chances with cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dré Bly.
They're working the middle of the field with tight ends - and successfully.
The Broncos have allowed 11 pass plays of 20-plus yards this season. Five have gone to tight ends, all during the team's current three-game losing streak.

And the yardage totals emanating from the tight end position have increased every week.

"It's definitely a concern," assistant head coach/defense Jim Bates said as preparations continued off the bye week for Sunday's home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. "It's something we definitely need to focus in on more, taking care of that position. Because it definitely has hurt us."

The damage during the past two games amounts to 15 catches for 222 yards and three touchdowns.

Indianapolis' Dallas Clark and San Diego's Antonio Gates represent two of the league's best tight ends, helping explain that upswing. They're both among the 10 tight ends who are in the NFL's top 50 in receptions. But so are Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez, now the top-scoring tight end in history, Green Bay's Donald Lee and Houston's Owen Daniels.

All are left on the Broncos' schedule, along with a rematch against Gates. So the issue isn't just going to fade away, just as Bailey and Bly aren't going away.
"It's all about matchups," Bailey said, adding he's not surprised teams have shied away from attacking the perimeter. "They want to get matched up on a linebacker because they're fast and linebackers aren't used to covering man to man. And we've played a lot of man to man the first few weeks."

Weak-side linebacker Ian Gold primarily has had the task of trying to bottle up opposing tight ends. Strong safety Nick Ferguson has taken his shots, too, as has strong-side linebacker Nate Webster and Bailey, on occasion.
Still, 26 of 69 receptions against the Broncos and 332 of 728 receiving yards have landed in tight ends' hands.

"Teams attack us with crossing routes, underneath, up the middle, stuff like that," Bly said. "We've just got to do a better job of stopping the way teams are trying to attack us. We've got good 'backers who can run, safeties who can knock your head off. We've just got to be prepared for how teams are going to attack us and, hopefully, take that away and force teams to throw at (the cornerbacks) more and allow us to do what we do."

Bates pointed to a combination of things - from poor execution in trying to stick with the likes of Gates to getting caught in coverages where the tight end sneaked free - as the crux of the problem.

"It's not a fact of teams continuing to do it until we stop it," Ferguson said. "This is a trend that's happening in the NFL. Not even looking at anybody we play, it's about having a versatile tight end. You can't have a tight end that can just block. He has to be able to catch the ball. If you put a linebacker, corner or safety on him, he has to be able to shake loose. It's a big wide receiver."

Last season, the Broncos often employed a "big nickel" set with Sam Brandon charged with shadowing the tight end, sometimes with bracket help from a safety. But Brandon hurt his right knee in training camp and was released.
Gold, who is fast for a linebacker but lacks the bulk of many of the tight ends he's called upon to cover, was presented instead with the tough adjustment of playing more in coverage than he has in previous years, particularly in substitution packages on third down.

"We look at it as one of his strengths, covering tight ends," linebackers coach Joe Baker said, adding Gold has done "pretty well" in that role. "When you're talking about defending the tight end, we have to defend him as a scheme."

This week, Pittsburgh features Heath Miller, the Steelers' leading receiver with 17 catches for 241 yards. He has had four receptions in three games, and outside of the Steelers' second-ranked rush defense, has become an offensive focal point.
His presence has been needed lately, especially given recent injuries at the receiver position to Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, both of whom should return Sunday.
"Heath is coming into his own," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "It's his third year. He's been around the track a few times. He's got good solid skills in a lot of areas. He's just a good football player. And it was time for him to emerge and be the guy he's shown he's capable of being."

And time for the Broncos to stop someone like him.

"We know if we hold it down outside we've got to pick it up inside," Bailey said. "That's just how it is."

End around
Opposing tight ends this season have accounted for nearly 38 percent of the catches against the Broncos defense and almost 46 percent of the passing yardage.
Date Opponent Players Rec. Yards TD
Sept. 9 at Buffalo Robert Royal, Kevin Everett 2 15 0
Sept. 16 Oakland *Zach Miller 3 18 0
Sept. 23 Jacksonville *Marcedes Lewis, George Wrighster, Greg Estandia 6 77 0
Sept. 30 at Indianapolis *Dallas Clark, Bryan Fletcher 8 109 2
Oct. 7 San Diego *Antonio Gates 7 113 1
Totals 26 332 3* Leading Receiver In Game



TE Miller and Spaeth could have a big day :tiphat:
 
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