Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Picks for Week 5's biggest games
Score predictions for UCLA-Arizona State and other key matchups
Originally Published: September 25, 2014
<cite class="source"> By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider</cite>
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Each week during the 2014 college football season I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. My overall record stands at 31-9 SU and 21-19 ATS.
After a week in which Florida State and Oregon survived upset bids, Week 5 brings us several key matchups in the Pac-12 and SEC that will begin to shape division races.
No. 11 UCLA Bruins (-4) at No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils
Thursday, 10 p.m. ET
The past three games between these two have been decided by a total of eight points. 2013 was their first meeting as two ranked teams since 1986, and it was a battle for a Pac-12 title-game berth. The Sun Devils dominated early with a 35-13 lead at halftime, but then had to hang on for a 38-33 win at the Rose Bowl as they clinched the Pac-12 South title.
Clearly the storyline for this year's game revolves around both quarterbacks, as they were injured in Week 3 games. While we know Sun Devils quarterback Taylor Kelly will not play in this one due to a foot injury, the status of Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley is a little more uncertain after suffering an elbow injury against Texas. Latest injury reports have him as probable, although his backup Jerry Neuheisel did lead the comeback against the Longhorns, throwing for 178 yards and two touchdowns.
On the other side, strong-armed Mike Bercovici and his 24 career pass attempts will get the start for the Sun Devils. Look for him to rely heavily on the Arizona State ground attack that is averaging 304 yards per game, led by running back D.J. Foster. Foster is No. 2 in the country this year, averaging 216 all-purpose yards per game and 9.4 yards per carry.
Besides the quarterbacks, the other units that will factor in heavily are the defenses: Can either make the critical stop? These two offenses have scored at least 28 points in each of their past four meetings. The advantage this year goes to the Bruins, who are giving up 137 yards per game on the ground, while the Sun Devils have been getting gashed for 197 yards per game. I look for Hundley to play and give an inspired effort as the Bruins make it four straight wins this year by eight points or less.
Pick: UCLA 31, Arizona State 26
Arkansas Razorbacks versus No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5) Arlington, Texas
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
This is the 71st meeting between these former SWC rivals, and this game is being played at AT&T Stadium for the fourth time in the past six years. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alumnus, and his Hogs had won each of the first three games here before the Aggies took the last two by double digits. However, Texas A&M has not won three in a row in this series since 1941-43.
Both teams come in red hot. Arkansas has won three straight games by 21 points or more since their season-opening loss to Auburn, and the Hogs have already matched last year's win total. On the other side, the Aggies could be this year's biggest surprise to date, as they are outscoring their opponents by 43 points per game and are outgaining them by 263 yards per game.
It will be interesting to see which style of play wins out as the high-flying Aggies are averaging 613 yards per game, led by quarterback Kenny Hill, who is averaging 340 pass yards per game with a 70 percent completion rate and a 13-2 TD-to-INT ratio. On the other side, the "Ground and Pound" Hogs have rushed for 1,145 yards in the past three weeks, led by Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams (881 combined yards), and their quarterback Brandon Allen has a solid 8-1 TD-to-INT ratio. A surprising stat is the fact that the Razorbacks have actually had more passing yards than rushing yards in two of their four games this year.
While Texas A&M is the better team, I look for Arkansas to shorten the game with its ground attack. I am still not sold on the Aggies defense, as they allowed 240 rush yards to Rice a couple of weeks ago. However, look for Hill $ Co. to make one more big play than the Hogs and avoid the upset.
Pick: Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 31
Missouri Tigers at No. 13 South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5)
Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last year, Missouri was on its way to a perfect regular season and led South Carolina 17-0 entering the fourth quarter. However, Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw came off the bench to lead the comeback, and when Missouri's chip shot 24-yard field goal bounced off the upright in the second overtime, South Carolina escaped with a 27-24 win.
Last week, the Gamecocks were in a letdown spot following the upset over Georgia, and had a much tougher than expected outing with Vanderbilt, winning 48-34 as they allowed two long kickoff return touchdowns. Quarterback Dylan Thompson has been the lone constant, as he is averaging 285 yards per game with an 11-3 TD-to-INT ratio. While the South Carolina defense is allowing a very poor 36 points per game (after allowing just 21 the previous seven years), its first three opponents (Texas A&M, East Carolina and Georgia) have combined for just two losses to date, with both coming at the hands of the Gamecocks.
Last week, Missouri played without arguably its best defensive player in Markus Golden, who already has four sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss in the first three games. He was clearly missed, as the Tigers' defense was gashed for 241 rush yards and managed just two sacks (after recording 12 in the first three games). They were upset by an Indiana team coming off an embarrassing defensive performance against Bowling Green. Missouri QB Maty Mauk is having a fine season, with 14 touchdown passes already, and should be primed to put up big numbers against a South Carolina pass defense that is allowing 312 yards per game and a 70 percent completion rate.
But the Gamecocks should be fired up for a rare visit from College "GameDay," and they can ill afford another conference loss, with a trip to Auburn coming later this season. While Golden is back this week for the Tigers, I look for South Carolina to play some inspired football, much like in the Georgia game, as it has Kentucky and a bye on deck.
Pick: South Carolina 38, Missouri 28
No. 16 Stanford Cardinal (-7.5) at Washington Huskies
Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET
Stanford is 7-2 in the series, but two years ago the Huskies, down 13-3, went for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 39 and got a 61-yard touchdown run from Bishop Sankey to get back in it, and eventually pulled the upset 17-13. Last year, the star of the game was Cardinal wideout Ty Montgomery, who had a 99-yard kick return touchdown to open the game and finished with 290 all-purpose yards. With Washington down 31-28 and with the ball, a controversial call stopped the Huskies on downs with just 1:16 left.
In one of the most shocking halftime scores we may see all year, five-touchdown underdog Georgia State led 14-0 over Washington last week, and had a 231-73 yardage edge. The second half was a little different, as the Huskies outscored them 45-0 and had a 263-42 yardage edge, as Chris Peterson became the first Washington coach to start 4-0 since Gil Dobie in 1908.
Despite an earlier loss to USC in which all nine of Stanford's possessions got inside the USC 35-yard line, the Cardinal still are in the mix for a Pac-12 title, with the No. 1 scoring and total defense in the country, allowing just 204 YPG and 4 PPG.
An interesting matchup here will be a young Stanford offensive line making its first road start in one of the loudest stadiums in the country against a Washington defense that leads the nation with 19 sacks. In the end, I do look for the Cardinal to pick up a road win as it comes in fresh off a bye, but this will go down to the wire.
Pick: Stanford 23, Washington 20
ESPN Streak for the Cash pick: Washington wins or loses by single digits.
Quick hitters
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (-17)
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Georgia has won four in a row in this series, and the Bulldogs' only previous five-game series win streak was from 1909-14. Last year in this game, the Bulldogs were coming off their big win over LSU and in a letdown spot. They would survive 34-31 in overtime, but suffered a couple of key injuries and would not be the same the rest of the season. This year, Georgia is coming off of a 66-0 win over Troy, as the Dawgs rushed for a Mark Richt era-high 367 yards. RB Todd Gurley only had six carries, so he should be fresh if needed to have a big workload here. While the Volunteers are improved and are coming off a bye, the Bulldogs are in must-win mode now that they've started 0-1 in conference play. I'll call for them to win by 24, the same margin of victory for Oklahoma over Tennessee in Week 3.
Pick: Georgia 41, Tennessee 17
South Florida Bulls at No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers (-33.5)
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Last week, the Badgers crushed Bowling Green 68-17, while amassing a Big Ten-record 644 rush yards. RB Melvin Gordon led the way, running for a career-high 253 yards and five touchdowns, and it was ironic considering his day started with a fumble on his first carry; this was the first fumble of his collegiate career (322 attempts). The Bulls are 2-2 so far this season, and beat Connecticut last week. They are second to last in the FBS in team pass efficiency, as their quarterbacks are completing less than 40 percent. That is not good news going on the road for the first time. On the other side of the ball, North Carolina State ran for 315 yards on the Bulls two weeks ago, and I think the Badgers could easily top that mark.
Pick: Wisconsin 48, South Florida 10
UTEP Miners at No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (-26)
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET
Week 4 can be summed up as a huge missed opportunity for the Wildcats, following their 20-14 loss to Auburn. After missing just two field goals all of last year, Jack Cantele missed three against the Tigers; Kansas State also had three costly turnovers. On the other side, this looks like a very different UTEP team, as the Miners nearly pulled off an upset over Texas Tech three weeks ago. The ground game has been the major reason for their improvement, as they are averaging 317 yards per game led by running back Aaron Jones and his 552 yards. While I tweeted earlier this week that coach Bill Snyder and the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 against the spread after a loss, they did put forth a maximum effort last week. With a huge spread, I will call for the Miners to keep it closer than the experts think.
Pick: Kansas State 37, UTEP 16
No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (-19) at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Four of the past five times Florida State has been ranked and has faced an unranked North Carolina State team, the Seminoles have lost outright, including the last time here in 2012, as they blew a 16-0 halftime lead. They were fortunate to survive last week without their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston in their 23-17 overtime win over Clemson. Winston returns this week, but the Wolfpack is off to its first 4-0 start since 2010, although the wins came over the likes of Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida and Presbyterian. Despite the huge talent differential here, the Seminoles have a history of not showing up at Raleigh, and I would not be surprised if this was a competitive ballgame well into the third quarter.
Pick: Florida State 37, North Carolina State 20
Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 22 Ohio State Buckeyes (-15.5)
Saturday at 6:00 p.m. ET
This marks just the fifth meeting since 1932 between these two schools that are separated by 109 miles. The Buckeyes have won 10 straight in this series, and have held the Bearcats to single digits on eight of those occasions. After opening the season with two straight byes, Cincinnati is now coming off two wins over MAC schools. Notre Dame transfer quarterback Gunner Kiel followed up his historic six-touchdown debut against Toledo with four more touchdowns last week. On the other side, the Buckeyes are coming off a bye after their 66-0 win over Kent State, as quarterback J.T. Barrett also threw for six touchdowns. The Buckeyes have not lost to an in-state opponent since 1921, and I look for them to take advantage of a Bearcats defense allowing 464 yards per game.
Pick: Ohio State 41, Cincinnati 21
No. 7 Baylor Bears (-21) at Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET
Last year, the Bears blew the doors off the Cyclones in a 71-7 beatdown that saw them have an incredible 714-174 yardage edge. However, it should be noted that the home team in this series has won five straight, and the high-powered Baylor offense has managed just 31 combined points in its past two visits to Jack Trice Stadium. The undefeated Bears are usually known for their offense, and while they are averaging 688 yards per game and 59 points per game despite several injuries at wide receiver and quarterback, it is the Baylor defense that has made waves this year, allowing just 221 yards per game and 9 points per game. On the other side, the Cyclones looked dead in the water after their loss to North Dakota State in the opener, but have played well since, including an upset over in-state rival Iowa two weeks ago. However, the Bears should get wide receivers Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman back for this one, and I look for them to roll here.
Pick: Baylor 47, Iowa State 20
Score predictions for UCLA-Arizona State and other key matchups
Originally Published: September 25, 2014
<cite class="source"> By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider</cite>
Each week during the 2014 college football season I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. My overall record stands at 31-9 SU and 21-19 ATS.
After a week in which Florida State and Oregon survived upset bids, Week 5 brings us several key matchups in the Pac-12 and SEC that will begin to shape division races.
No. 11 UCLA Bruins (-4) at No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils
Thursday, 10 p.m. ET
The past three games between these two have been decided by a total of eight points. 2013 was their first meeting as two ranked teams since 1986, and it was a battle for a Pac-12 title-game berth. The Sun Devils dominated early with a 35-13 lead at halftime, but then had to hang on for a 38-33 win at the Rose Bowl as they clinched the Pac-12 South title.
Clearly the storyline for this year's game revolves around both quarterbacks, as they were injured in Week 3 games. While we know Sun Devils quarterback Taylor Kelly will not play in this one due to a foot injury, the status of Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley is a little more uncertain after suffering an elbow injury against Texas. Latest injury reports have him as probable, although his backup Jerry Neuheisel did lead the comeback against the Longhorns, throwing for 178 yards and two touchdowns.
On the other side, strong-armed Mike Bercovici and his 24 career pass attempts will get the start for the Sun Devils. Look for him to rely heavily on the Arizona State ground attack that is averaging 304 yards per game, led by running back D.J. Foster. Foster is No. 2 in the country this year, averaging 216 all-purpose yards per game and 9.4 yards per carry.
Besides the quarterbacks, the other units that will factor in heavily are the defenses: Can either make the critical stop? These two offenses have scored at least 28 points in each of their past four meetings. The advantage this year goes to the Bruins, who are giving up 137 yards per game on the ground, while the Sun Devils have been getting gashed for 197 yards per game. I look for Hundley to play and give an inspired effort as the Bruins make it four straight wins this year by eight points or less.
Pick: UCLA 31, Arizona State 26
Arkansas Razorbacks versus No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5) Arlington, Texas
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
This is the 71st meeting between these former SWC rivals, and this game is being played at AT&T Stadium for the fourth time in the past six years. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alumnus, and his Hogs had won each of the first three games here before the Aggies took the last two by double digits. However, Texas A&M has not won three in a row in this series since 1941-43.
Both teams come in red hot. Arkansas has won three straight games by 21 points or more since their season-opening loss to Auburn, and the Hogs have already matched last year's win total. On the other side, the Aggies could be this year's biggest surprise to date, as they are outscoring their opponents by 43 points per game and are outgaining them by 263 yards per game.
It will be interesting to see which style of play wins out as the high-flying Aggies are averaging 613 yards per game, led by quarterback Kenny Hill, who is averaging 340 pass yards per game with a 70 percent completion rate and a 13-2 TD-to-INT ratio. On the other side, the "Ground and Pound" Hogs have rushed for 1,145 yards in the past three weeks, led by Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams (881 combined yards), and their quarterback Brandon Allen has a solid 8-1 TD-to-INT ratio. A surprising stat is the fact that the Razorbacks have actually had more passing yards than rushing yards in two of their four games this year.
While Texas A&M is the better team, I look for Arkansas to shorten the game with its ground attack. I am still not sold on the Aggies defense, as they allowed 240 rush yards to Rice a couple of weeks ago. However, look for Hill $ Co. to make one more big play than the Hogs and avoid the upset.
Pick: Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 31
Missouri Tigers at No. 13 South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5)
Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last year, Missouri was on its way to a perfect regular season and led South Carolina 17-0 entering the fourth quarter. However, Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw came off the bench to lead the comeback, and when Missouri's chip shot 24-yard field goal bounced off the upright in the second overtime, South Carolina escaped with a 27-24 win.
Last week, the Gamecocks were in a letdown spot following the upset over Georgia, and had a much tougher than expected outing with Vanderbilt, winning 48-34 as they allowed two long kickoff return touchdowns. Quarterback Dylan Thompson has been the lone constant, as he is averaging 285 yards per game with an 11-3 TD-to-INT ratio. While the South Carolina defense is allowing a very poor 36 points per game (after allowing just 21 the previous seven years), its first three opponents (Texas A&M, East Carolina and Georgia) have combined for just two losses to date, with both coming at the hands of the Gamecocks.
Last week, Missouri played without arguably its best defensive player in Markus Golden, who already has four sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss in the first three games. He was clearly missed, as the Tigers' defense was gashed for 241 rush yards and managed just two sacks (after recording 12 in the first three games). They were upset by an Indiana team coming off an embarrassing defensive performance against Bowling Green. Missouri QB Maty Mauk is having a fine season, with 14 touchdown passes already, and should be primed to put up big numbers against a South Carolina pass defense that is allowing 312 yards per game and a 70 percent completion rate.
But the Gamecocks should be fired up for a rare visit from College "GameDay," and they can ill afford another conference loss, with a trip to Auburn coming later this season. While Golden is back this week for the Tigers, I look for South Carolina to play some inspired football, much like in the Georgia game, as it has Kentucky and a bye on deck.
Pick: South Carolina 38, Missouri 28
No. 16 Stanford Cardinal (-7.5) at Washington Huskies
Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET
Stanford is 7-2 in the series, but two years ago the Huskies, down 13-3, went for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 39 and got a 61-yard touchdown run from Bishop Sankey to get back in it, and eventually pulled the upset 17-13. Last year, the star of the game was Cardinal wideout Ty Montgomery, who had a 99-yard kick return touchdown to open the game and finished with 290 all-purpose yards. With Washington down 31-28 and with the ball, a controversial call stopped the Huskies on downs with just 1:16 left.
In one of the most shocking halftime scores we may see all year, five-touchdown underdog Georgia State led 14-0 over Washington last week, and had a 231-73 yardage edge. The second half was a little different, as the Huskies outscored them 45-0 and had a 263-42 yardage edge, as Chris Peterson became the first Washington coach to start 4-0 since Gil Dobie in 1908.
Despite an earlier loss to USC in which all nine of Stanford's possessions got inside the USC 35-yard line, the Cardinal still are in the mix for a Pac-12 title, with the No. 1 scoring and total defense in the country, allowing just 204 YPG and 4 PPG.
An interesting matchup here will be a young Stanford offensive line making its first road start in one of the loudest stadiums in the country against a Washington defense that leads the nation with 19 sacks. In the end, I do look for the Cardinal to pick up a road win as it comes in fresh off a bye, but this will go down to the wire.
Pick: Stanford 23, Washington 20
ESPN Streak for the Cash pick: Washington wins or loses by single digits.
Quick hitters
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (-17)
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Georgia has won four in a row in this series, and the Bulldogs' only previous five-game series win streak was from 1909-14. Last year in this game, the Bulldogs were coming off their big win over LSU and in a letdown spot. They would survive 34-31 in overtime, but suffered a couple of key injuries and would not be the same the rest of the season. This year, Georgia is coming off of a 66-0 win over Troy, as the Dawgs rushed for a Mark Richt era-high 367 yards. RB Todd Gurley only had six carries, so he should be fresh if needed to have a big workload here. While the Volunteers are improved and are coming off a bye, the Bulldogs are in must-win mode now that they've started 0-1 in conference play. I'll call for them to win by 24, the same margin of victory for Oklahoma over Tennessee in Week 3.
Pick: Georgia 41, Tennessee 17
South Florida Bulls at No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers (-33.5)
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Last week, the Badgers crushed Bowling Green 68-17, while amassing a Big Ten-record 644 rush yards. RB Melvin Gordon led the way, running for a career-high 253 yards and five touchdowns, and it was ironic considering his day started with a fumble on his first carry; this was the first fumble of his collegiate career (322 attempts). The Bulls are 2-2 so far this season, and beat Connecticut last week. They are second to last in the FBS in team pass efficiency, as their quarterbacks are completing less than 40 percent. That is not good news going on the road for the first time. On the other side of the ball, North Carolina State ran for 315 yards on the Bulls two weeks ago, and I think the Badgers could easily top that mark.
Pick: Wisconsin 48, South Florida 10
UTEP Miners at No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (-26)
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET
Week 4 can be summed up as a huge missed opportunity for the Wildcats, following their 20-14 loss to Auburn. After missing just two field goals all of last year, Jack Cantele missed three against the Tigers; Kansas State also had three costly turnovers. On the other side, this looks like a very different UTEP team, as the Miners nearly pulled off an upset over Texas Tech three weeks ago. The ground game has been the major reason for their improvement, as they are averaging 317 yards per game led by running back Aaron Jones and his 552 yards. While I tweeted earlier this week that coach Bill Snyder and the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 against the spread after a loss, they did put forth a maximum effort last week. With a huge spread, I will call for the Miners to keep it closer than the experts think.
Pick: Kansas State 37, UTEP 16
No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (-19) at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Four of the past five times Florida State has been ranked and has faced an unranked North Carolina State team, the Seminoles have lost outright, including the last time here in 2012, as they blew a 16-0 halftime lead. They were fortunate to survive last week without their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston in their 23-17 overtime win over Clemson. Winston returns this week, but the Wolfpack is off to its first 4-0 start since 2010, although the wins came over the likes of Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida and Presbyterian. Despite the huge talent differential here, the Seminoles have a history of not showing up at Raleigh, and I would not be surprised if this was a competitive ballgame well into the third quarter.
Pick: Florida State 37, North Carolina State 20
Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 22 Ohio State Buckeyes (-15.5)
Saturday at 6:00 p.m. ET
This marks just the fifth meeting since 1932 between these two schools that are separated by 109 miles. The Buckeyes have won 10 straight in this series, and have held the Bearcats to single digits on eight of those occasions. After opening the season with two straight byes, Cincinnati is now coming off two wins over MAC schools. Notre Dame transfer quarterback Gunner Kiel followed up his historic six-touchdown debut against Toledo with four more touchdowns last week. On the other side, the Buckeyes are coming off a bye after their 66-0 win over Kent State, as quarterback J.T. Barrett also threw for six touchdowns. The Buckeyes have not lost to an in-state opponent since 1921, and I look for them to take advantage of a Bearcats defense allowing 464 yards per game.
Pick: Ohio State 41, Cincinnati 21
No. 7 Baylor Bears (-21) at Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET
Last year, the Bears blew the doors off the Cyclones in a 71-7 beatdown that saw them have an incredible 714-174 yardage edge. However, it should be noted that the home team in this series has won five straight, and the high-powered Baylor offense has managed just 31 combined points in its past two visits to Jack Trice Stadium. The undefeated Bears are usually known for their offense, and while they are averaging 688 yards per game and 59 points per game despite several injuries at wide receiver and quarterback, it is the Baylor defense that has made waves this year, allowing just 221 yards per game and 9 points per game. On the other side, the Cyclones looked dead in the water after their loss to North Dakota State in the opener, but have played well since, including an upset over in-state rival Iowa two weeks ago. However, the Bears should get wide receivers Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman back for this one, and I look for them to roll here.
Pick: Baylor 47, Iowa State 20
