Stanford vs. Washington NCAAF Week 14 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Stanford Cardinal vs. Washington Huskies
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (FOX) at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington
Oddsmakers are favoring the Huskies by double digits against the Stanford Cardinal.
Some people are inclined to take the underdog because neither team is known for playing up-tempo or for accruing a lot of yards at one time.
However, this reasoning only makes sense of the low total. And it’s absurd to bet on an underdog just because the total is low.
What will decide who covers the spread is the answer to the following question: which team matches up better with the other team?
Stanford Run Defense
After Stanford has played three games, it is apparent that they have one of the nation’s worst run defenses.
They are allowing 229 rushing yards per game, which ranks 121st nationally.
Some apologists will assert that many of those rushing yards have come from opposing quarterbacks.
Well, Washington’s starting quarterback is strictly pro-style. He won’t scramble much. So Stanford’s run defense is in good shape, right?
It’s true that, in Stanford’s last game, Cal quarterback Chase Garbers ran for 51 yards, which are possibly 51 more rushing yards than Washington’s quarterback will accrue.
But running back Damien Moore still ran for 121 yards on 10 carries, which almost quadruples his previous season high.
Likewise, the Cardinal allowed Colorado quarterback Sam Noyer to run for 36 yards.
But Colorado running back Jarek Broussard also accomplished 121 rushing yards on 27 carries.
The point is that Stanford is also allowing opposing running backs to gash them.
It’s not just starting running backs, either. Backups are feasting on the Stanford run defense as well.
When a quarterback isn’t accruing significant gains on the ground, his running backs will.
Washington Ground Game vs. Stanford Run Defense
The Huskies have three different running backs averaging over 4.5 YPC on over 20 rushing attempts.
There’s Kamari Pleasant, who’s averaging 4.6 as he wears down opposing defenses with his 230 pounds of size.
Moreover, Richard Newton averages 5.3 YPC and Sean McGrew averages six YPC.
So to cite Washington’s lack of a mobile quarterback is ridiculous because the Huskies have more running backs than they need on Saturday.
The Huskies have a well-sized offensive line with two 320-pounders and a 350-pounder with which to continually push Cardinal defensive linemen off their spots.
Defensive line has been an issue for the Cardinal as its personnel on that unit lacks the strength to permit the linebackers behind them to operate effectively.
But Stanford linebackers will need all the help they can get. Both the inside and outside linebacker groups have been hit hard by injury.
After Gabe Reid, who is an outside linebacker, moved to the inside linebacker position, Stanford only has two healthy scholarship guys at inside linebacker.
So it’s not just the defensive line that’s problematic. Stanford’s front seven is thin, weak, and even emaciated at places.
In Washington’s highest-scoring game this year — when it scored 44 points against Arizona — running was a huge factor.
Behind another 200-yard rushing effort, the Husky offense will be in a position to replicate that performance.
Husky Pass Attack vs. Stanford Pass Defense
Washington is glad to use the run to support the pass.
When the Huskies struggled against Utah, they only accrued 88 rushing yards in total.
So they put their quarterback — who’s very talented but young — in bad positions, in third-and-long situations, in higher-pressure situations where he was also more vulnerable to the opposing pass rush.
Husky quarterback Dylan Morris received offers from Notre Dame and Oregon, but elected to privilege Washington with his skill set, instead.
He is great on short and intermediate throws. With his accuracy, he’ll pick apart the Cardinal defense especially in the middle of the field where Stanford’s linebackers will showcase their ineptitude.
However, the Cardinal secondary is nothing impressive either, especially since its only formidable contributor opted out of the season. Paulson Adebo was an All-Pac-12 First-Teamer.
Don’t be fooled: Stanford isn’t going to allow a lot of passing yards because of the ridiculous sums that opposing running backs amass against it.
Opposing offenses can only get so many yards, after all! The key is that opposing quarterbacks are efficient and thus effective in the limited pass attempts that they have to throw.
Currently, Stanford ranks 94th nationally in opposing passer rating. Look for Morris to favor especially his superb tight end, Cade Otton, who leads the team with 16 receptions and 212 receiving yards.
Stanford Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offensively, the Cardinal wants to run the ball.
Its feature running back averages merely 3.9 YPC. So instead, Stanford pins its hope primarily on its passing attack, which is led by quarterback Davis Mills.
The problem with this reliance is that Washington’s pass defense is top-level.
So far, the Husky pass defense ranks fifth nationally in opposing YPA and 27th nationally in opposing passer rating.
Washington’s secondary returned a lot of players who were quite young last year.
Still, much of the talent was already proven. Nickelback Elijah Molden, for example, was an All-Pac 12 First-Teamer.
On defense, Washington likes to feature multiple defensive backs. So the depth and quality of returning experience will be a constant threat to Mills’ endeavor.
In the team’s loss to Colorado, he failed to approach a 60 percent completion rate.
Washington will also bring a pass rush that Colorado lacks — the Huskies own the nation’s ninth-highest sack rate whereas Colorado ranks 98th in the category.
With too much pressure on him individually since the Cardinal lacks a balanced offense, Mills will also be flummoxed by the imperative to throw the ball much quicker than he normally likes to.
The Verdict
Expect the Huskies to run away with this game quite literally.
Behind a balanced offense, Dylan Morris will be comfortable doing precisely the sort of things that he likes to do — throw intermediate passes to a bevy of quick, well-sized, or otherwise open targets.
Defensively, the Huskies will compel Stanford to be one-dimensional and to struggle doing what the Cardinal wants, which is to navigate a heavy pass rush and top-level, deep secondary.
Best Bet: Huskies -11 at -114 with Bookmaker
Stanford Cardinal vs. Washington Huskies
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (FOX) at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington
Oddsmakers are favoring the Huskies by double digits against the Stanford Cardinal.
Some people are inclined to take the underdog because neither team is known for playing up-tempo or for accruing a lot of yards at one time.
However, this reasoning only makes sense of the low total. And it’s absurd to bet on an underdog just because the total is low.
What will decide who covers the spread is the answer to the following question: which team matches up better with the other team?
Stanford Run Defense
After Stanford has played three games, it is apparent that they have one of the nation’s worst run defenses.
They are allowing 229 rushing yards per game, which ranks 121st nationally.
Some apologists will assert that many of those rushing yards have come from opposing quarterbacks.
Well, Washington’s starting quarterback is strictly pro-style. He won’t scramble much. So Stanford’s run defense is in good shape, right?
It’s true that, in Stanford’s last game, Cal quarterback Chase Garbers ran for 51 yards, which are possibly 51 more rushing yards than Washington’s quarterback will accrue.
But running back Damien Moore still ran for 121 yards on 10 carries, which almost quadruples his previous season high.
Likewise, the Cardinal allowed Colorado quarterback Sam Noyer to run for 36 yards.
But Colorado running back Jarek Broussard also accomplished 121 rushing yards on 27 carries.
The point is that Stanford is also allowing opposing running backs to gash them.
It’s not just starting running backs, either. Backups are feasting on the Stanford run defense as well.
When a quarterback isn’t accruing significant gains on the ground, his running backs will.
Washington Ground Game vs. Stanford Run Defense
The Huskies have three different running backs averaging over 4.5 YPC on over 20 rushing attempts.
There’s Kamari Pleasant, who’s averaging 4.6 as he wears down opposing defenses with his 230 pounds of size.
Moreover, Richard Newton averages 5.3 YPC and Sean McGrew averages six YPC.
So to cite Washington’s lack of a mobile quarterback is ridiculous because the Huskies have more running backs than they need on Saturday.
The Huskies have a well-sized offensive line with two 320-pounders and a 350-pounder with which to continually push Cardinal defensive linemen off their spots.
Defensive line has been an issue for the Cardinal as its personnel on that unit lacks the strength to permit the linebackers behind them to operate effectively.
But Stanford linebackers will need all the help they can get. Both the inside and outside linebacker groups have been hit hard by injury.
After Gabe Reid, who is an outside linebacker, moved to the inside linebacker position, Stanford only has two healthy scholarship guys at inside linebacker.
So it’s not just the defensive line that’s problematic. Stanford’s front seven is thin, weak, and even emaciated at places.
In Washington’s highest-scoring game this year — when it scored 44 points against Arizona — running was a huge factor.
Behind another 200-yard rushing effort, the Husky offense will be in a position to replicate that performance.
Husky Pass Attack vs. Stanford Pass Defense
Washington is glad to use the run to support the pass.
When the Huskies struggled against Utah, they only accrued 88 rushing yards in total.
So they put their quarterback — who’s very talented but young — in bad positions, in third-and-long situations, in higher-pressure situations where he was also more vulnerable to the opposing pass rush.
Husky quarterback Dylan Morris received offers from Notre Dame and Oregon, but elected to privilege Washington with his skill set, instead.
He is great on short and intermediate throws. With his accuracy, he’ll pick apart the Cardinal defense especially in the middle of the field where Stanford’s linebackers will showcase their ineptitude.
However, the Cardinal secondary is nothing impressive either, especially since its only formidable contributor opted out of the season. Paulson Adebo was an All-Pac-12 First-Teamer.
Don’t be fooled: Stanford isn’t going to allow a lot of passing yards because of the ridiculous sums that opposing running backs amass against it.
Opposing offenses can only get so many yards, after all! The key is that opposing quarterbacks are efficient and thus effective in the limited pass attempts that they have to throw.
Currently, Stanford ranks 94th nationally in opposing passer rating. Look for Morris to favor especially his superb tight end, Cade Otton, who leads the team with 16 receptions and 212 receiving yards.
Stanford Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offensively, the Cardinal wants to run the ball.
Its feature running back averages merely 3.9 YPC. So instead, Stanford pins its hope primarily on its passing attack, which is led by quarterback Davis Mills.
The problem with this reliance is that Washington’s pass defense is top-level.
So far, the Husky pass defense ranks fifth nationally in opposing YPA and 27th nationally in opposing passer rating.
Washington’s secondary returned a lot of players who were quite young last year.
Still, much of the talent was already proven. Nickelback Elijah Molden, for example, was an All-Pac 12 First-Teamer.
On defense, Washington likes to feature multiple defensive backs. So the depth and quality of returning experience will be a constant threat to Mills’ endeavor.
In the team’s loss to Colorado, he failed to approach a 60 percent completion rate.
Washington will also bring a pass rush that Colorado lacks — the Huskies own the nation’s ninth-highest sack rate whereas Colorado ranks 98th in the category.
With too much pressure on him individually since the Cardinal lacks a balanced offense, Mills will also be flummoxed by the imperative to throw the ball much quicker than he normally likes to.
The Verdict
Expect the Huskies to run away with this game quite literally.
Behind a balanced offense, Dylan Morris will be comfortable doing precisely the sort of things that he likes to do — throw intermediate passes to a bevy of quick, well-sized, or otherwise open targets.
Defensively, the Huskies will compel Stanford to be one-dimensional and to struggle doing what the Cardinal wants, which is to navigate a heavy pass rush and top-level, deep secondary.
Best Bet: Huskies -11 at -114 with Bookmaker
