Stalking the Sunday/Monday Umps, weather, etc.

Hollywood Beaker

Stalking the umps
Welcome back to all! :tiphat:

To any possible new people out there...stalking is when we sit and wait until the umpires for each new series are released, usually an hour or so before the start of each one.

If Rex or Mikey are around and care to fully explain the story behind "stalking", knock yourselves out.

Otherwise, hope everyone is ready for a fun and exciting 6 months of the regular season. :Happy:
 
Hi Beaks, good to see you again sir.

Stalking the Umps began back in the early 2000's, blankets days (where yes, I was once a moderator. I guess they called it a linesman there)

Mikesy, Shortline, myself and a dedicated group of maybe a dozen others would sit and wait for the announcements of the home plate umpire for the first game of the series.

Friday is the most popular day for that, followed by Mondays/Tuesdays. Most series are 3 games, and the umpires rotate clockwise from the plate. The first base ump goes behind the dish the next day, etc. The umpires move to a different town after each series, and almost never ump the same team they just got finished with. Some ump crews might only see a team once a year.

There are certain umpires who call more balls than strikes. We used to have a criteria for that. If an ump had a strike count over 63 percent, he was an OVER ump. If he called less than 60 percent, he was labeled an UNDER ump. With the steroid era gone and pitchers more dominant in recent years there have been some changes implemented.

The SSAC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSnVmwX3F_Y gave us a bit more info this year regarding good OVER and UNDER umps from last year (yes, Ron KULPA, I'm looking at you).

See page 7 http://www.sloansportsconference.co...st-Who-is-responsible-for-a-called-strike.pdf

Anyone who has more advanced ump stats, by all means, feel free to share. Shortline might or might not be around this year; he mentioned burnout and/or being tired of the daily grind. He had the best excel sheet at tracking these guys.

STALKING the umps became 'en vogue' because we would make jokes about putting on camouflage and waiting in the bushes for them to "come out". The reference was to MLB.com, which was our only source back then of finding out where they were. I think at one point, we had a guy who knew an ump and his flight schedule etc., so we would know where his crew was going. The umps work in crews of four, with an alternate always available the next day in case one get injured.

Hope this helps some; I'll make constant references all year to "The Stalk" and the regulars know what it means. Hopefully, the "noobs" do now also, and chime into this thread when they deem fit and have good info.

:shake:
 
by the way, the criteria i am using for this year is 63.75 and 60.75. This is arbitrary and open for discussion. I am open to change if someone tells me why!
 
I just sent Mikesy a message on facebook. With him in a fantasy league with me this year I'm expecting to see him around here a lot more.
 
... and waiting for tip to respond too. Hell I think I was still in high school when I found these nut jobs stalking the umps and I'm getting closer than I want to my 20th reunion. :rofl:
 
by the way, the criteria i am using for this year is 63.75 and 60.75. This is arbitrary and open for discussion. I am open to change if someone tells me why!

60.75 seems really low, but everyone is becoming an under guy now pretty much besides CB
 
what do you recommend, gwarner? i think that's pretty high but again, i can be talked into something different with proper reasoning
 
I strongly encourage you to look at WHIP for these umps Rex. Reason being that some pitchers, I believe, feel obligated to pound the strike zone with some of these guys as opposed to nibbling the corners leading to more hits, and thus, an uncomfortable pitcher. I can't give you a specific range, but I think WHIP tells a bigger story than K zone does, these umps with consistently high WHIP tend to be over guys and vice versa.
 
Culbreth is what the NYDN tweeted on the lineup card https://instagram.com/p/1I0wz6ISih/

what do you recommend, gwarner? i think that's pretty high but again, i can be talked into something different with proper reasoning

don't have a number to give you, but everyone is turning into a strikecaller so i would adjust your numbers higher. I doubt we even see the rogue over guys coming close to 60% so i would even bump it to 61% (though I don't go by strike% like I used to, instead just by knowing the guys and who hunts strikes)
 
thanks for this HB and CKR, pretty sad that McLelland is retired now though
 
NELSON and HIRSCHBECK historically have monster strike zones. This favors the pitchers for sure, which leads to better value on the UNDERS.

Go back many years and look at some of the stats; i think there is a thread stickied atop the baseball pages that shortline did with excel showing strike percentage etc etc

that's why we stalk the umps, or at least why I do. I'm looking for value in the totals. Can't bet a game without knowing who is calling balls and strikes.
 
can't get it at the office with the site blocked with the firewall, but when I get home I'll post up updated ump info...it's not hard to find it, DB should have it with historical data as well.
 
Instead of strike percentage, a better stat would be to go into the MLB gameday info and find the percentage of pitches outside of the zone that an ump calls strikes, and the % of pitches in the zone that an ump calls a ball. By looking at str%, you're including all pitches, including foul balls and balls in play. Rough estimate, there are 50-100 of the 400 pitches in a game that are fouled off or put in play that an ump has no effect on (but are included in the calculation of str%).
 
Every umpire announced so far are crew chiefs. So, assuming that continues, we're stalking:

Tim Welke
Cederstrom
Gorman
Kellogg
Hallion
Joyce
Ted Barrett
Miller
Meals
 
Hoping to get Meals in Houston or Arizona. I'd take Cederstrom, Joyce or Ted Barrett (to a lesser extent).

But pretty much anyone but Miller.
 
@StoneLarry 31 seconds ago

The roof is opening at Safeco, and Opening Day ceremonies are about to commence.
 
That sucks because Felix's indoor starts are 14-1 to the under since Aug 31, 2010. There were 4.2 ±2.1 average runs scored per game in those 15 games against an average lined total of 6.8 ±0.4.

But I guess that shit's off for now. I literally had the under queued up before giving Twitter a final check before submitting my password.
 
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