st pete

[captjohn67]

I could ramble on for quite a while, but the biggest change this year without a doubt is the new aero kits. Each manufacturer has supplied their own, and the early results are promising, and some think most track records will be broken due to the increased down force supplied. Certainly tire degradation is a concern, especially on the reds, but we shall see. As of now, Chevy has the edge, but who knows on the ovals. Results from Barber...

http://www.crash.net/indycar/results/216647/1/barber-motorsports-park-open-test-day-2.html

Given Helio's efforts so far in preseason testing, and his history at this venue ( 3 wins, 6 tops 3's, and 7 top 10's in 9 attempts) i'll put 0.10 on the +875. I think they have the top four right fwiw ( Power, Pagenaud, Dixon, Helio) Rahal could surprise here, and was the fastest Honda at Barber in the combined results (7th fastest). Rookie Stefano Coletti looks like a nice addition to the field. Crackhead Sato is back (man did i miss that one) and turd for hire Franceso Dracone will at least be around for four races to scare the living shit out of everyone.

Let's see what they do in practice on Friday and we'll go from there.

 

[captjohn67]

the weather for today doesn't look promising (to say the least) so we may have a compacted schedule which may make for an even crazier start to the season than i already think it will be

there have been an avg of 6.6 lead changes per race (10 total races) and an avg of 4.4 cautions per. The winner of this race has had an avg qualifying position of 4.2, and only two winners have qualified worse than 5th (mental note made). So let's talk about a few drivers...

Marco - he has been running at the finish in only 4 of his 9 career starts here (by far the worst of anyone in the field) When you factor in how poorly the whole andretti camp did at barber earlier this month, he's #1 on my hopeful fade list

Kanaan - it took him a while to mesh with his new team last year, but in the second half of the season, he rattled off 5 podiums in the 8 races with a win ( and another win was there except tires bit him). While it is fair to say he is much better on ovals, st pete would certainly be an exception. He has 7 top 5's in 10 efforts (no wins). When you factor in his ho hum effort at barber, the fact that only two of his seventeen career victories are on road/street courses, it helps explain the rather insulting +2800. I couldn't fault you for making him your dark horse, but i think i will pass.

Dixon - if you read anything i ever wrote about him last year, you know the mad respect i have for his skill set. He has won 14.7% of the races he has been in, and a staggering 50% of the time he has finished in the top 5. I almost feel like i should repeat that for emphasis. Last year he closed out the final 8 races with 7 top 5's. I hope to find a favorable matchup that isn't juiced to hell.

Going into last year i thought i had a pretty good read on things and was rewarded with a good season. This year?? Let's just say caution would be advised, but i hope to figure things out quickly...more in a little bit

 

[captjohn67]

Montoya - ended up second in the first practice today and was ninth at barber earlier this month. He had the most points of any driver last year on ovals, but only had the 12th most points on road/street courses. In his short cart/indy car career (59 starts) his avg finish on the street/roads is 13.8. I look for improvement in this regard this year, but i'll need to see some proof before i purchase some stock. He was +1150 before they took them down.

Hawksworth - a surprising 6th today, finished 21st in his only race here, and was 17th out of the 23 at barber. The +3300 didn't tempt me at all.

Hinch--ran 12th at barber, 7th today and has raced here three times with a win, a 4th, and a lost in the woods effort last year (19th qualif + finish) Leaving andretti does not usually help your career, just sayin'

bourdais - zero top 10's in four trips here, but was 5th fastest earlier today and 4th at barber. His four championships seem like a looong time ago. It's not like the man doesn't still have talent, he had 5 top 5's last year and finished 10th in the points, but maybe father time is catching up with him? We'll firm up the read on him as we go.

good luck on the baskets tonite... it's a early happy hour for me. Blue Devils -5 fwiw. Cheers and GLTA.

 

[captjohn67]

newgarden +135 sato

 

[captjohn67]

rahal is a winner over hawksworth, but i'll be damned if I'm laying -165 on him....need to see a kanaan and a simona. Everything else is pretty damn tight imo

 

[captjohn67]

Dixon +110 Montoya and I'm on the blue devils again. Unless something else surfaces, that'll be it. GLTA

 

[hugh613]

Have yourself a good Sunday capt.

:cheers3:

 

[captjohn67]

Have yourself a good Sunday capt.

:cheers3:

they're already on ice, just need to get some work done before 2pm. You too :cheers3:

 

[DaRaiders]

Great insight...BOL