Offenses Will Be Frustrated in Brewers-Cardinals Opener
The Cardinals begin a three-game home series with Milwaukee on Monday, 8:15 ET on the MLB Network. This series has enormous playoff implications for both teams who are in the thick of competing for the Wild Card.
MLB Pick: Under
St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty (8-8, 3.08 ERA) has consistently pitched well, but only in his home venue. For comparison’s sake, his ERA was over 5.00 in his last two away games, but under 2.00 in his last three home games. In St. Louis, he’s allowed two runs in his last 19 innings. The „under“ is hitting in 63 percent of his home games.
Flaherty relies on his fastball with 40 percent frequency, but he can lean on different pitches in different scenarios. He also features his curveball as his first pitch to lefties, his slider with two strikes to lefties and in every scenario to righties. His fastball averages 94 mph velocity and shows slight arm-side movement. He likes to keep it elevated with a healthy spin rate that makes the ball harder to track for the opposing batter. Flaherty also leans on his slider with 30 percent frequency. It has good glove-side movement and he places it with 39 percent frequency in the two lowest-right spots of the zone. He also mixes in a sinker and curveball. The former’s main trait is strong arm-side movement, which makes it elusive. It tends to dip out of the zone and he otherwise concentrates its location on the periphery away from right-handed batters. Because of its movement and location, its his favorite ground ball-inducing pitch. His curveball movement is unique with strong arm-side and negative vertical movement. He concentrates its location either on the periphery or bottom row of the zone.
The key for Flaherty is deception. Besides his curveball, his pitches share very similar vertical and horizontal release points, which masks which pitch is leaving his hand, so that the batter struggles to react to one of his pitches which differs in movement and velocity from the others. Because of his deception and ability to add effective movement, spin rate, and placement to his pitches, all but one (his sinker) yield an opposing BA above .222. In 18 innings faced against Milwaukee this season, the Brewers have mustered only two runs.
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MIlwaukee’s Chase Anderson (9-6, 3.93 ERA) is showing effective form on the road, where he’s allowed one run in his last nine innings. The „under“ is hitting in 61 percent of his road starts and is 9-2-1 (81%) against division opponents. I would not trust Anderson in his home ballpark, which is hitters-friendly and conducive for this fly ball-inducing pitcher to concede many home runs, especially against a Cards lineup that is dependent on home runs. But Busch Stadium in St. Louis is different from Millers Park. In six career starts in St. Louis, Anderson’s ERA is 2.67 and he’s allowed only two homers.
Anderson, similar to Flaherty, relies on his fastball with 40 percent frequency and mixes in a sinker, curveball, and change-up with between 12 and 18 percent frequency. A huge indicator of his disparity in performance home versus away is his sinker. It yields a .971 slugging rate at home versus .444 on the road. The latter number is still so high because of a couple select performances. In his last two road starts, opponents are only slugging .200 against it. Like his fastball and change-up, It is elusive with strong arm-side and vertical movement. He avoids the middle of the plate with it and concentrates its location on the periphery and bottom row of the zone. In addition, his curveball is unique with strong negative vertical movement and has been a lethal weapon after he reworked his grip on it.
Key Cardinal batters have poor numbers against Anderson whether home or away. Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez are combined 5-for-28 against him.
The Cardinals begin a three-game home series with Milwaukee on Monday, 8:15 ET on the MLB Network. This series has enormous playoff implications for both teams who are in the thick of competing for the Wild Card.
MLB Pick: Under
St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty (8-8, 3.08 ERA) has consistently pitched well, but only in his home venue. For comparison’s sake, his ERA was over 5.00 in his last two away games, but under 2.00 in his last three home games. In St. Louis, he’s allowed two runs in his last 19 innings. The „under“ is hitting in 63 percent of his home games.
Flaherty relies on his fastball with 40 percent frequency, but he can lean on different pitches in different scenarios. He also features his curveball as his first pitch to lefties, his slider with two strikes to lefties and in every scenario to righties. His fastball averages 94 mph velocity and shows slight arm-side movement. He likes to keep it elevated with a healthy spin rate that makes the ball harder to track for the opposing batter. Flaherty also leans on his slider with 30 percent frequency. It has good glove-side movement and he places it with 39 percent frequency in the two lowest-right spots of the zone. He also mixes in a sinker and curveball. The former’s main trait is strong arm-side movement, which makes it elusive. It tends to dip out of the zone and he otherwise concentrates its location on the periphery away from right-handed batters. Because of its movement and location, its his favorite ground ball-inducing pitch. His curveball movement is unique with strong arm-side and negative vertical movement. He concentrates its location either on the periphery or bottom row of the zone.
The key for Flaherty is deception. Besides his curveball, his pitches share very similar vertical and horizontal release points, which masks which pitch is leaving his hand, so that the batter struggles to react to one of his pitches which differs in movement and velocity from the others. Because of his deception and ability to add effective movement, spin rate, and placement to his pitches, all but one (his sinker) yield an opposing BA above .222. In 18 innings faced against Milwaukee this season, the Brewers have mustered only two runs.
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MIlwaukee’s Chase Anderson (9-6, 3.93 ERA) is showing effective form on the road, where he’s allowed one run in his last nine innings. The „under“ is hitting in 61 percent of his road starts and is 9-2-1 (81%) against division opponents. I would not trust Anderson in his home ballpark, which is hitters-friendly and conducive for this fly ball-inducing pitcher to concede many home runs, especially against a Cards lineup that is dependent on home runs. But Busch Stadium in St. Louis is different from Millers Park. In six career starts in St. Louis, Anderson’s ERA is 2.67 and he’s allowed only two homers.
Anderson, similar to Flaherty, relies on his fastball with 40 percent frequency and mixes in a sinker, curveball, and change-up with between 12 and 18 percent frequency. A huge indicator of his disparity in performance home versus away is his sinker. It yields a .971 slugging rate at home versus .444 on the road. The latter number is still so high because of a couple select performances. In his last two road starts, opponents are only slugging .200 against it. Like his fastball and change-up, It is elusive with strong arm-side and vertical movement. He avoids the middle of the plate with it and concentrates its location on the periphery and bottom row of the zone. In addition, his curveball is unique with strong negative vertical movement and has been a lethal weapon after he reworked his grip on it.
Key Cardinal batters have poor numbers against Anderson whether home or away. Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez are combined 5-for-28 against him.
But sure brag about when we rest our starters or come to an obvious let-down spot 
