Red Hot Cardinals to Soar Past Visiting Brewers on Friday
St. Louis hosts Milwaukee on Friday at 8:15 ET. The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and Milwaukee doesn’t look like the team to stop them.
MLB Pick: St. Louis
Amidst rumors of being sent back down to the minors, Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (5-3, 4.47 ERA) is slated to get at least another start. Peralta is coming off an outing in which he allowed seven runs, his second such outing in four starts. He’s lost his last two decisions on the road.
Peralta’s favorite pitch is his fastball. He relies on it with 77 percent frequency and most in all scenarios. Even though he throws it so often, his mechanics don’t allow him to deliver it comfortably, which is why the vertical release point of his fastball varies so starkly between most of his outings and which is why he throws such a higher percentage of balls than strikes with it. To compensate for his difficulty in throwing strikes, he leaves his pitches more often in the middle of the plate to make sure that he doesn’t walk too many batters. For example, he places 7.49 percent of his fastballs in the dead middle part of the strike zone. The velocity and movement of Peralta’s fastball is nothing special and his vertical and horizontal release points don’t offer any deception. So not only is his stuff ordinary, but it’s predictable. Five of his last six road opponents slugged at least .500 against his fastball. But it doesn’t even take many hits to knock Peralta out of the game because of how many batters he walks—at least four in three of his last four outings. Peralta is a rookie whose opponents are figuring out his stuff and whose poor mechanics are catching up to him.
The Cardinals are red hot, winning their last eight games and scoring at least seven runs in five of their last seven victories. Jose Martinez is batting .500 in his past seven days. Marcell Ozuna is batting .327 in August and slugs .464 at home.
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Jack Flaherty (6-6, 3.22 ERA) shows stronger form than Peralta, yielding two runs in his last 13 innings. He has also dominated Milwaukee in two starts, allowing two runs in 12 innings while striking out 22 batters and walking three. Flaherty has been an important part of St. Louis’ hot streak, winning his last two decisions.
Flaherty relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 69% of his arsenal. He also mixes in a sinker and curveball with combined 26% frequency. He is more effective than Peralta in mixing up his pitches. Since his professional debut last year, he is developing habit of pitching backwards. He has more variety in his first-pitch selection, more often starting with a breaking pitch and finishing the batter off with his fastball. He’s reduced his opposing slugging against his fastball from .641 in July to .278 in August because he locates it more effectively, throwing a higher rate of strikes and placing it more precisely on the borders of the zone. Flaherty's slider and curveball have been solid all year. Opponents are batting under .200 against both pitches. His slider boasts more horizontal movement than it did last year, making it more elusive, and he places it with 54% frequency on the lowest row of the zone. This year, his curveball also has more horizontal movement, while its lack of velocity throws hitters off balance and its good location on the periphery and lowest border of the zone makes it more difficult to hit.
The Brewers, though in playoff contention, are only 5-7 in August. In 46 career at-bats against Flaherty, they’re hitting .130 with only two extra-base hits. Its two BA leaders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are combined 1-for-9 against Flaherty.
Since St. Louis cleaned out its bullpen, it has enjoyed a boost in morale. The Cardinals will keep up the good spirits on Friday.
St. Louis hosts Milwaukee on Friday at 8:15 ET. The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and Milwaukee doesn’t look like the team to stop them.
MLB Pick: St. Louis
Amidst rumors of being sent back down to the minors, Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (5-3, 4.47 ERA) is slated to get at least another start. Peralta is coming off an outing in which he allowed seven runs, his second such outing in four starts. He’s lost his last two decisions on the road.
Peralta’s favorite pitch is his fastball. He relies on it with 77 percent frequency and most in all scenarios. Even though he throws it so often, his mechanics don’t allow him to deliver it comfortably, which is why the vertical release point of his fastball varies so starkly between most of his outings and which is why he throws such a higher percentage of balls than strikes with it. To compensate for his difficulty in throwing strikes, he leaves his pitches more often in the middle of the plate to make sure that he doesn’t walk too many batters. For example, he places 7.49 percent of his fastballs in the dead middle part of the strike zone. The velocity and movement of Peralta’s fastball is nothing special and his vertical and horizontal release points don’t offer any deception. So not only is his stuff ordinary, but it’s predictable. Five of his last six road opponents slugged at least .500 against his fastball. But it doesn’t even take many hits to knock Peralta out of the game because of how many batters he walks—at least four in three of his last four outings. Peralta is a rookie whose opponents are figuring out his stuff and whose poor mechanics are catching up to him.
The Cardinals are red hot, winning their last eight games and scoring at least seven runs in five of their last seven victories. Jose Martinez is batting .500 in his past seven days. Marcell Ozuna is batting .327 in August and slugs .464 at home.
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Jack Flaherty (6-6, 3.22 ERA) shows stronger form than Peralta, yielding two runs in his last 13 innings. He has also dominated Milwaukee in two starts, allowing two runs in 12 innings while striking out 22 batters and walking three. Flaherty has been an important part of St. Louis’ hot streak, winning his last two decisions.
Flaherty relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 69% of his arsenal. He also mixes in a sinker and curveball with combined 26% frequency. He is more effective than Peralta in mixing up his pitches. Since his professional debut last year, he is developing habit of pitching backwards. He has more variety in his first-pitch selection, more often starting with a breaking pitch and finishing the batter off with his fastball. He’s reduced his opposing slugging against his fastball from .641 in July to .278 in August because he locates it more effectively, throwing a higher rate of strikes and placing it more precisely on the borders of the zone. Flaherty's slider and curveball have been solid all year. Opponents are batting under .200 against both pitches. His slider boasts more horizontal movement than it did last year, making it more elusive, and he places it with 54% frequency on the lowest row of the zone. This year, his curveball also has more horizontal movement, while its lack of velocity throws hitters off balance and its good location on the periphery and lowest border of the zone makes it more difficult to hit.
The Brewers, though in playoff contention, are only 5-7 in August. In 46 career at-bats against Flaherty, they’re hitting .130 with only two extra-base hits. Its two BA leaders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are combined 1-for-9 against Flaherty.
Since St. Louis cleaned out its bullpen, it has enjoyed a boost in morale. The Cardinals will keep up the good spirits on Friday.
