St. Louis/Atlanta, Kansas City/Houston, San Francisco/Arizona Parlay Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Bet This MLB Parlay at (+680) on Wednesday

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, July 6, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Truist Park in Atlanta

Who Starts for St. Louis?


St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas tonight.

It may be tempting to want to auto-bet the Cardinals because they are an underdog despite Mikolas starting for them.

But there are several reasons why the Cardinals will lose badly tonight.

First of all, Mikolas is plenty vulnerable.

His worst performances have come against teams that match up well against him.

Primarily, Mikolas throws a slider, sinker, fastball, and curveball.

These pitches combine to make up close to 95 percent of his arsenal.

In terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he performed poorly twice against the Brewers who rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Likewise, his worst performance came against Philadelphia which ranks seventh in the category.

Mikolas vs. Brave Batters

I like Atlanta's lineup tonight because it ranks second in slugging against Mikolas' favorite pitches from righties.

Plus, the Braves are hot right now -- their only two losses since June 28 have come in sweep situations.

During their most recent five game span, they have scored a combined total of 29 runs.

Who Starts for Atlanta?

Atlanta starts the regularly elite Max Fried.

Fried has yielded a sub-two FIP in each of his last four starts and a sub-three FIP in each of his last six starts.

His success is strong and consistent despite facing difficult opponents such as the Dodgers.

Fried vs. Cardinal Batters

Tonight, the southpaw Fried merits extra optimism because of his superb history against the Cardinals.

He is 3-0 in three starts against them. In 20.2 innings against them, he has allowed one earned run.

While the Cardinals are righty-heavy -- and have been since Fried has been facing them -- Fried is well-equipped to challenge opposite-handed batters.

Most prominently, he features a curveball and changeup against them.

Both pitches constitute classic weapons against opposite-handed batters.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, July 6, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston

Who Starts for Kansas City?

Kansas City starts Brad Keller tonight.

While Keller evinces promising form, his most recent opponents have been almost as easy as possible.

Pittsburgh and Detroit, the last two teams he started against, rank in the bottom-three in runs per game.

Keller vs. Astro Batters

Obviously, Houston poses a much tougher test.

This is true especially now as the Astros are hot.

During their ongoing eight-game win streak, they've scored a combined total of 50 runs

Perhaps more critically, they match up superbly against Keller given the pitches that he throws.

Primarily, Keller throws a slider, fastball, and sinker.

These pitches make up about 95 percent of his arsenal.

Houston ranks third in slugging against these pitches combined from righties.

Who Starts for Houston?

Houston starts the regularly dominant Cristian Javier.

Javier has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight starts.

Most recently, his FIP was under 1.00 in both of his last starts.

He even no-hit the Yankees in seven innings of work.

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, July 6, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix

Who Starts for San Francisco?

San Francisco needs help badly.

The Giants are suffering a six-game losing streak.

They start Alex Cobb tonight.

Cobb, especially in this game, merits pessimism.

Arizona promises to hit Cobb hard tonight because it matches up well with him, ranking ninth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Who Starts for Arizona?

Arizona starts Merrill Kelly tonight.

Kelly will look to collect his fourth win in four straight starts.

He merits optimism particularly tonight because of his consistent and solid track record throughout his entire career when facing the Giants at home.

Most recently, last year, he was 1-0 in three starts against San Francisco in Arizona, allowing five earned runs in 21 innings.

Best Bet: Parlay Braves RL at +105, Astros RL at -130, Diamondbacks ML at +115 at +680 odds with BetOnline
 
This was really the only game of the 4 in atl I looked at and thought cards had a chance to win. Not saying I love them but feel like the price on atl is a bit steep. Despite the good history I’d still argue cards a tougher matchup for Fried than lad would have been. The fact he throws curve, slider, change more than fastball/sinker is def problematic for cards and explains why he has had success.

I have a little more confidence in Mikolas than you seem to here, I disagree with saying he has had 2 bad starts vs milw. He did get blown up in one his 3 outings vs them this year but he was really good in the other 2. He not a guy xfip ever gives full credit to cause he a pitch to contact guy. The fact that xfip measured one of those 2 outings he went 6+ innings and only allowed 1 or 2 runs as poor is exactly the beef I have with that measurement. Cards need a good pitching performance and while I rather Mikolas wasn’t our #1 at the moment he is exactly that, I think he embraces that tho and think he will give them a quality start tonight. Not sure that will equate to a win but I fully expect he gives them a good chance tonight, better than -175 implies at least.
 
I’ll def look at Javier props tonight. His last 2 outings been a couple the most impressive pitching performances I’ve seen all year. I’d think he cools down kc bats tonight. Really tough to argue w houston, kc def should have beat them in 1st game of the series yet blew it, jumped out on them again in gm 2 yet lost, now tonight I don’t think they score much so even if Keller did pitch well it prob wouldn’t even matter. Doesn’t appear kc pen is very good and we know all to well how terrible their manager is at managing pens!!!
 
I’d def lean snakes also. Would have liked to see a little more plus money on them but think it being so small is justified. Cobb has only made 1 start at zona and it was awful, I’m a firm believer that a park that can cause issues for pitchers so until I see them have success there I tend to be skeptical. I remember long time ago back when Chris carpenter pitched for cards some of cards pitchers always complaining about how they didn’t like pitching in zona. 2nd highest altitude stadium plus they referenced having a harder time than usual with their grip cause the dry air., i could def see a guy like Cobb who’s best swing and miss pitch the split finger having issues if in fact grip can be tougher here.
 
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