Cardinals Are Soaring And Marlins Are Swimming For Thursday Picks
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
When: 2:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML
The key trend is that St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas was 12-1 in day games last year, accruing +11.5 units. He also went 3-0 in four starts against Milwaukee. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.50 in three of those starts. Many of the runs that he conceded came later in his starts when the game was already decided. In the one bad start, he allowed a two-run homer with an 8-2 lead. Still, only three Milwaukee batters are hitting over .250 against him. Milwaukee's two best hitters, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, are 4-for-21 (.190) in their lifetime versus Mikolas.
On the other side, the Brewers are 0-4 in their past four home season openers. They lost those games by an average of 6.25 runs. Jhoulys Chacin will get the start and he'll look to avoid getting shelled for his third straight season opener. Last year, he gave up four runs in 3.1 innings in San Diego. In his previous year's season debut, he gave up nine runs in 3.1 innings at the Dodgers. Furthermore, Cardinal batters love facing Chacin in Milwaukee. Last season, he went 0-2 in two home starts against them, conceding 11 earned runs in 10 innings. As a team, active Cardinal hitters boast an .808 OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) against Chacin. Marcell Ozuna, for example, is 6-for-12 with two doubles.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
When: 4:10 p.m. ET
MLB Picks: Marlins RL & 1H Under
In recent history, Miami has been a place of horror for the Rockies. In the past three years, Colorado is 2-8 in Miami. Last year, They mustered two runs in three games there.
Starting pitcher Jose Urena contributed to Colorado's South Florida misery. In April of last year, he owned the Rockies, conceding one run over seven innings. In his career, he has enjoyed consistent success against current Colorado batters. In 71 career at-bats, they are batting .197 against him. In that April game, top Colorado hitters Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon went combined 0-for-8 against him. Of the two, Arenado hates Miami the most, where he once injured his hand. In his career, he is 14-for-82 (.184) in Miami.
Urena will look to continue the stride that he found at the end of last season. He finished the season by allowing no more than one run in any of his final five starts. He has built off of that finish with his best ever Spring Training, yielding a 2.19 ERA in five games.
For Colorado, southpaw Kyle Freeland will look to build off his most successful season in which he enjoyed career-bests in ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). He would surely have loved to face a Miami lineup that hit .228 against lefty pitchers. He'll be even more stoked to face one without J.T. Realmuto, who left Miami to join Philadelphia's burgeoning all-star team. As if the Marlins' lineup couldn't look weaker, their top remaining hitter, Starlin Castro, is suffering poor form. He went 7-for-39 (.179) in Spring Training. All seven hits were singles.
Miami will at least stay in it with Urena and a bullpen that features Adam Conley, who thrived in his transition from the starter role. Conversely, Colorado's bullpen will miss its best reliever Adam Ottavino.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
When: 2:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML
The key trend is that St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas was 12-1 in day games last year, accruing +11.5 units. He also went 3-0 in four starts against Milwaukee. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.50 in three of those starts. Many of the runs that he conceded came later in his starts when the game was already decided. In the one bad start, he allowed a two-run homer with an 8-2 lead. Still, only three Milwaukee batters are hitting over .250 against him. Milwaukee's two best hitters, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, are 4-for-21 (.190) in their lifetime versus Mikolas.
On the other side, the Brewers are 0-4 in their past four home season openers. They lost those games by an average of 6.25 runs. Jhoulys Chacin will get the start and he'll look to avoid getting shelled for his third straight season opener. Last year, he gave up four runs in 3.1 innings in San Diego. In his previous year's season debut, he gave up nine runs in 3.1 innings at the Dodgers. Furthermore, Cardinal batters love facing Chacin in Milwaukee. Last season, he went 0-2 in two home starts against them, conceding 11 earned runs in 10 innings. As a team, active Cardinal hitters boast an .808 OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) against Chacin. Marcell Ozuna, for example, is 6-for-12 with two doubles.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
When: 4:10 p.m. ET
MLB Picks: Marlins RL & 1H Under
In recent history, Miami has been a place of horror for the Rockies. In the past three years, Colorado is 2-8 in Miami. Last year, They mustered two runs in three games there.
Starting pitcher Jose Urena contributed to Colorado's South Florida misery. In April of last year, he owned the Rockies, conceding one run over seven innings. In his career, he has enjoyed consistent success against current Colorado batters. In 71 career at-bats, they are batting .197 against him. In that April game, top Colorado hitters Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon went combined 0-for-8 against him. Of the two, Arenado hates Miami the most, where he once injured his hand. In his career, he is 14-for-82 (.184) in Miami.
Urena will look to continue the stride that he found at the end of last season. He finished the season by allowing no more than one run in any of his final five starts. He has built off of that finish with his best ever Spring Training, yielding a 2.19 ERA in five games.
For Colorado, southpaw Kyle Freeland will look to build off his most successful season in which he enjoyed career-bests in ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). He would surely have loved to face a Miami lineup that hit .228 against lefty pitchers. He'll be even more stoked to face one without J.T. Realmuto, who left Miami to join Philadelphia's burgeoning all-star team. As if the Marlins' lineup couldn't look weaker, their top remaining hitter, Starlin Castro, is suffering poor form. He went 7-for-39 (.179) in Spring Training. All seven hits were singles.
Miami will at least stay in it with Urena and a bullpen that features Adam Conley, who thrived in his transition from the starter role. Conversely, Colorado's bullpen will miss its best reliever Adam Ottavino.
