NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at FedEx Forum in Memphis
Looking At Form
Whether teams are playing well often indicates how they will continue to play in the present.
But it’s easy to draw a specious conclusion about how tonight’s game will go by comparing how each team finished the regular season.
In the Spurs’ case, they enter tonight’s game on a four-game losing streak. Overall, they have lost 10 of their last 12.
Conversely, Memphis has won five of six. So Memphis seems to be playing better.
It’s not right to conclude, though, that Memphis is truly playing better because San Antonio has had the misfortune of playing many high-caliber teams lately like Brooklyn and Phoenix.
Before losing its last four games — all against highly-seeded playoff teams except the fourth-seeded Knicks, whom the Spurs lost to by four on the road — the Spurs actually beat Milwaukee by 21 points.
Memphis, in turn, during its most recent stretch of positive play has gotten to face bottom-feeders New Orleans and Sacramento twice.
Consideration of recent results therefore breeds a misleading conclusion that we should discount for our Sports Betting.
One might try to argue that San Antonio must anyhow lack confidence because it has been losing.
But a four-game losing streak is nothing earth-shattering, nothing that San Antonio hasn’t overcome before.
From December 27 to January 1, for example, the Spurs suffered a rough stretch very similar to the one that they have just endured.
They lost at New Orleans and then lost twice to the defending champs and then again to Utah.
After those four losses, they bounced back by defeating both the Clippers and then the Lakers on the road.
Turnovers
The key betting factor for tonight’s game — for both the spread and the total — is something more solid to look at than at form and team mentality.
San Antonio wants to value the basketball by limiting the number of times it turns the ball over.
On the season, the Spurs rank second-best at giving up fewer turnovers.
This statistic might make it seem like the Spurs match up well with Memphis because the Grizzlies are more reliant than most teams on creating turnovers and scoring on fast breaks and in transition.
If the Grizzlies were bad at forcing turnovers, then it would be easy to perceive a match-up edge.
But what do we think, as bettors, when both teams are great at what they do — the Spurs are generally great at limiting their turnovers while the Grizzlies are generally great at creating them.
We have to look one layer deeper and ask not how San Antonio fares against teams that like to create turnovers and rely on doing so, but how San Antonio fares against teams that do a solid job of creating turnovers and scoring off of them.
In its past two games against Memphis — which they played on January 31 and on February 1 — San Antonio suffered 17- and 31-point defeats.
But these defeats have nothing to do with Memphis' ability to generate points off turnovers.
On January 30, the Spurs actually scored five more points off turnovers than Memphis did.
On February 1, the Spurs accrued 30 points off turnovers to Memphis’ six!
In the season opener, San Antonio again scored more points off turnovers and beat the Grizzlies by 12 points, despite an insane performance from Ja Morant.
So in all three meetings San Antonio proved that its ability to limit offensive turnovers supersedes the Grizzlies’ endeavor to force and score points off of turnovers.
How did the Grizzlies win these last two meetings, then?
They converted 50 or about 50 percent of their three-point attempts.
This anomalous bombardment of three-pointers will not repeat itself, though, because the Spurs don’t have now retired center LaMarcus Aldridge, whose lack of mobility (partly generated by old age) made him an absolute liability on defense.
San Antonio ranks ninth in limiting opposing three-point attempts and second in limiting opposing open three-point attempts. Plus, three-point shooting isn’t even a characteristic focus of the Memphis offense this season.
The Spurs’ third-best transition defense — as measured by opposing PPP (points per possession) -- will limit a Grizzly offense that primarily wants to create turnovers in order to run the floor.
San Antonio Offense vs. Memphis Defense
In the half-court, San Antonio loves more than most teams to execute from the 5-14 foot range.
Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is a key to San Antonio’s mid-range impetus.
He attempts the third-most field goals from the 10-14 foot range in the NBA and is very efficient in this area.
Led by DeRozan, the Spurs will thrive against a Memphis defense that ranks second-worst at limiting opposing field goal efficiency from the 5-9 foot range and that allows one of the highest point totals per game from 10-14 feet.
Still, San Antonio’s ball-security will help keep the game lower-scoring.
Oddsmakers have created a higher total for this game because Memphis’ general success in scoring off turnovers is baked into the betting lines.
So the Spurs’ proven success against Memphis’ havoc also justifies an “under” play.
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs +4 at -110 & Under 222 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at FedEx Forum in Memphis
Looking At Form
Whether teams are playing well often indicates how they will continue to play in the present.
But it’s easy to draw a specious conclusion about how tonight’s game will go by comparing how each team finished the regular season.
In the Spurs’ case, they enter tonight’s game on a four-game losing streak. Overall, they have lost 10 of their last 12.
Conversely, Memphis has won five of six. So Memphis seems to be playing better.
It’s not right to conclude, though, that Memphis is truly playing better because San Antonio has had the misfortune of playing many high-caliber teams lately like Brooklyn and Phoenix.
Before losing its last four games — all against highly-seeded playoff teams except the fourth-seeded Knicks, whom the Spurs lost to by four on the road — the Spurs actually beat Milwaukee by 21 points.
Memphis, in turn, during its most recent stretch of positive play has gotten to face bottom-feeders New Orleans and Sacramento twice.
Consideration of recent results therefore breeds a misleading conclusion that we should discount for our Sports Betting.
One might try to argue that San Antonio must anyhow lack confidence because it has been losing.
But a four-game losing streak is nothing earth-shattering, nothing that San Antonio hasn’t overcome before.
From December 27 to January 1, for example, the Spurs suffered a rough stretch very similar to the one that they have just endured.
They lost at New Orleans and then lost twice to the defending champs and then again to Utah.
After those four losses, they bounced back by defeating both the Clippers and then the Lakers on the road.
Turnovers
The key betting factor for tonight’s game — for both the spread and the total — is something more solid to look at than at form and team mentality.
San Antonio wants to value the basketball by limiting the number of times it turns the ball over.
On the season, the Spurs rank second-best at giving up fewer turnovers.
This statistic might make it seem like the Spurs match up well with Memphis because the Grizzlies are more reliant than most teams on creating turnovers and scoring on fast breaks and in transition.
If the Grizzlies were bad at forcing turnovers, then it would be easy to perceive a match-up edge.
But what do we think, as bettors, when both teams are great at what they do — the Spurs are generally great at limiting their turnovers while the Grizzlies are generally great at creating them.
We have to look one layer deeper and ask not how San Antonio fares against teams that like to create turnovers and rely on doing so, but how San Antonio fares against teams that do a solid job of creating turnovers and scoring off of them.
In its past two games against Memphis — which they played on January 31 and on February 1 — San Antonio suffered 17- and 31-point defeats.
But these defeats have nothing to do with Memphis' ability to generate points off turnovers.
On January 30, the Spurs actually scored five more points off turnovers than Memphis did.
On February 1, the Spurs accrued 30 points off turnovers to Memphis’ six!
In the season opener, San Antonio again scored more points off turnovers and beat the Grizzlies by 12 points, despite an insane performance from Ja Morant.
So in all three meetings San Antonio proved that its ability to limit offensive turnovers supersedes the Grizzlies’ endeavor to force and score points off of turnovers.
How did the Grizzlies win these last two meetings, then?
They converted 50 or about 50 percent of their three-point attempts.
This anomalous bombardment of three-pointers will not repeat itself, though, because the Spurs don’t have now retired center LaMarcus Aldridge, whose lack of mobility (partly generated by old age) made him an absolute liability on defense.
San Antonio ranks ninth in limiting opposing three-point attempts and second in limiting opposing open three-point attempts. Plus, three-point shooting isn’t even a characteristic focus of the Memphis offense this season.
The Spurs’ third-best transition defense — as measured by opposing PPP (points per possession) -- will limit a Grizzly offense that primarily wants to create turnovers in order to run the floor.
San Antonio Offense vs. Memphis Defense
In the half-court, San Antonio loves more than most teams to execute from the 5-14 foot range.
Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is a key to San Antonio’s mid-range impetus.
He attempts the third-most field goals from the 10-14 foot range in the NBA and is very efficient in this area.
Led by DeRozan, the Spurs will thrive against a Memphis defense that ranks second-worst at limiting opposing field goal efficiency from the 5-9 foot range and that allows one of the highest point totals per game from 10-14 feet.
Still, San Antonio’s ball-security will help keep the game lower-scoring.
Oddsmakers have created a higher total for this game because Memphis’ general success in scoring off turnovers is baked into the betting lines.
So the Spurs’ proven success against Memphis’ havoc also justifies an “under” play.
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs +4 at -110 & Under 222 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada
