NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Two games tonight stand out to me most as worth betting on: San Antonio vs. Cleveland and Dallas vs. Portland.
Based on the match-up alone, I had also really liked Chicago. But its opponent, Denver, has played so much better lately.
I like the two games that I chose even more than Chicago vs. Denver because my reasoning is also able to account for how the teams have currently been playing.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Friday, March 19, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio
DeMar DeRozan
When DeMar DeRozan cannot play, you have to expect a low scoring output from the Spurs.
As the team’s leading scorer — he averages 20.3 points per game — his productivity is irreplaceably important to the Spur offense.
Since after March 10, DeRozan has been absent and he’s also been ruled ‘out’ for tonight’s game as he deals with the death of his father.
On March 12, San Antonio scored 104 points against an Orlando defense that allows 111.2 per game.
Then, the Spurs scored 99 against the 76ers, 109 against a Piston defense that concedes 111.3 per game, and 106 against a Bull defense that opponents average 114.1 points against.
So the “under” is 3-1 during this span of games that DeRozan has missed.
Oddsmakers are repeatedly not close to accounting for the significance of DeRozan’s absence.
The Spurs/Magic game went “under” by 33 points and the Spurs/Bulls game went “under” by 18 points..
Now, the Spurs/Pistons game was a bit closer. But in that game, San Antonio converted 48 percent of its three-point opportunities, which is 11.9 percent higher than its season average.
In the one “over,” San Antonio’s opponent converted 15 three-point attempts to finish with a three-point shooting average 14.9 percent higher than its season average.
Will Three-Pointers Stop Us?
In the one exception and the one relatively close call, at least one team produced a highly anomalous effort from behind the arc.
Should we worry about either team’s three-point shooting tonight?
Especially with important defender Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup, the Cavaliers excel at running teams off the three-point line.
They rank sixth in limiting opposing three-point attempts and do not allow many open or wide open looks.
As for the Cavalier offense, it ranks last-place in three-pointers made per game.
So there’s no reason to be worried. If it takes Cleveland making 15 three-pointers for the “over” to hit tonight, then that is an incredibly high margin of error for our “under” play tonight.
Cavalier Offense vs. Spur Defense
Offensively, Cleveland is rather simple for a defense to prepare for because its offense is so one-dimensional.
With its guard-centered offense predicated largely on the ability of guys like Collin Sexton to attack the basket, the Cavs attempt the fourth-highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket.
For San Antonio, center LaMarcus Aldridge agreed to part ways. His absence is great for our “under” play because he threatens offensively by stretching the floor with three-point shooting.
Plus, Aldridge was more of a defensive liability with his lack of rim protection, his lack of lateral foot speed.
His former backups — especially Jakob Poeltl — are much stronger in terms of rim protection.
With the likes of Poeltl, San Antonio is the best team in terms of limiting opposing efficiency within two feet of the basket.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, March 19, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon
Three-Point Shooting
Both teams love to attempt three-pointers. Portland attempts the second-most per game, Dallas the sixth-most.
So each team’s ability to succeed on offense tonight will be rather dependent on its ability to shoot three-pointers.
Both defenses will offer the opposing offense ample opportunity as they both allow a high percentage of open and wide open three-point attempts.
One reason why the Trail Blazer perimeter defense struggles is that it often gets exposed. Defensively, Portland likes to take risks, which often leave opposing three-point shooters with uncontested three-point opportunities.
Dallas’ issue with perimeter defense is personnel-driven. Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith are known as two of the team’s top perimeter defense.
Both players have been absent. While the latter would guard the opponent’s top scorer last year, he has anyhow been down this year in terms of defensive rating.
The Mavs will also give guys like Kristaps Porzingis a lot of minutes. He is a liability in perimeter defense, whereas he would prefer to contest shot attempts inside the paint.
Star Power
For the Trail Blazers, Damian Lillard is used to carrying his team.
He has produced three consecutive 30-point efforts, accruing a total of 124 in his past three games combined.
While Lillard has converted six three-point attempts in each of his past three games, CJ McCollum will add to that total.
That’s right, Lillard’s running mate in the backcourt is finally back. He’s coming off a three-for-six effort from deep and is averaging 24.5 points per game this season.
For Dallas, Luka Doncic is the NBA’s sixth-leading scorer. He is replicating Lillard’s positive recent form in terms of overall scoring and three-point shooting.
Trends
The “over” is on a 6-0 run between these teams.
Both teams are familiar with each other in the Western Conference, in terms of playing each other often, and their games are reliably laden with offensive firepower.
Parlay Verdict
San Antonio’s offensive output will be limited by the absence of its top scorer, while it owns the personnel on defense to limit what Cleveland wants to do most offensively.
Dallas and Portland are primed to produce another “over” together. Three-point shooting and star power will be two common components of this game.
For the above reasons, parlay the Spurs/Cavaliers “under” with the Mavericks/Trail Blazers “over.”
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs/Cavaliers “under” & Mavericks/Trail Blazers “over” 234 at -108 with Heritage
Two games tonight stand out to me most as worth betting on: San Antonio vs. Cleveland and Dallas vs. Portland.
Based on the match-up alone, I had also really liked Chicago. But its opponent, Denver, has played so much better lately.
I like the two games that I chose even more than Chicago vs. Denver because my reasoning is also able to account for how the teams have currently been playing.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Friday, March 19, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio
DeMar DeRozan
When DeMar DeRozan cannot play, you have to expect a low scoring output from the Spurs.
As the team’s leading scorer — he averages 20.3 points per game — his productivity is irreplaceably important to the Spur offense.
Since after March 10, DeRozan has been absent and he’s also been ruled ‘out’ for tonight’s game as he deals with the death of his father.
On March 12, San Antonio scored 104 points against an Orlando defense that allows 111.2 per game.
Then, the Spurs scored 99 against the 76ers, 109 against a Piston defense that concedes 111.3 per game, and 106 against a Bull defense that opponents average 114.1 points against.
So the “under” is 3-1 during this span of games that DeRozan has missed.
Oddsmakers are repeatedly not close to accounting for the significance of DeRozan’s absence.
The Spurs/Magic game went “under” by 33 points and the Spurs/Bulls game went “under” by 18 points..
Now, the Spurs/Pistons game was a bit closer. But in that game, San Antonio converted 48 percent of its three-point opportunities, which is 11.9 percent higher than its season average.
In the one “over,” San Antonio’s opponent converted 15 three-point attempts to finish with a three-point shooting average 14.9 percent higher than its season average.
Will Three-Pointers Stop Us?
In the one exception and the one relatively close call, at least one team produced a highly anomalous effort from behind the arc.
Should we worry about either team’s three-point shooting tonight?
Especially with important defender Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup, the Cavaliers excel at running teams off the three-point line.
They rank sixth in limiting opposing three-point attempts and do not allow many open or wide open looks.
As for the Cavalier offense, it ranks last-place in three-pointers made per game.
So there’s no reason to be worried. If it takes Cleveland making 15 three-pointers for the “over” to hit tonight, then that is an incredibly high margin of error for our “under” play tonight.
Cavalier Offense vs. Spur Defense
Offensively, Cleveland is rather simple for a defense to prepare for because its offense is so one-dimensional.
With its guard-centered offense predicated largely on the ability of guys like Collin Sexton to attack the basket, the Cavs attempt the fourth-highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket.
For San Antonio, center LaMarcus Aldridge agreed to part ways. His absence is great for our “under” play because he threatens offensively by stretching the floor with three-point shooting.
Plus, Aldridge was more of a defensive liability with his lack of rim protection, his lack of lateral foot speed.
His former backups — especially Jakob Poeltl — are much stronger in terms of rim protection.
With the likes of Poeltl, San Antonio is the best team in terms of limiting opposing efficiency within two feet of the basket.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, March 19, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon
Three-Point Shooting
Both teams love to attempt three-pointers. Portland attempts the second-most per game, Dallas the sixth-most.
So each team’s ability to succeed on offense tonight will be rather dependent on its ability to shoot three-pointers.
Both defenses will offer the opposing offense ample opportunity as they both allow a high percentage of open and wide open three-point attempts.
One reason why the Trail Blazer perimeter defense struggles is that it often gets exposed. Defensively, Portland likes to take risks, which often leave opposing three-point shooters with uncontested three-point opportunities.
Dallas’ issue with perimeter defense is personnel-driven. Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith are known as two of the team’s top perimeter defense.
Both players have been absent. While the latter would guard the opponent’s top scorer last year, he has anyhow been down this year in terms of defensive rating.
The Mavs will also give guys like Kristaps Porzingis a lot of minutes. He is a liability in perimeter defense, whereas he would prefer to contest shot attempts inside the paint.
Star Power
For the Trail Blazers, Damian Lillard is used to carrying his team.
He has produced three consecutive 30-point efforts, accruing a total of 124 in his past three games combined.
While Lillard has converted six three-point attempts in each of his past three games, CJ McCollum will add to that total.
That’s right, Lillard’s running mate in the backcourt is finally back. He’s coming off a three-for-six effort from deep and is averaging 24.5 points per game this season.
For Dallas, Luka Doncic is the NBA’s sixth-leading scorer. He is replicating Lillard’s positive recent form in terms of overall scoring and three-point shooting.
Trends
The “over” is on a 6-0 run between these teams.
Both teams are familiar with each other in the Western Conference, in terms of playing each other often, and their games are reliably laden with offensive firepower.
Parlay Verdict
San Antonio’s offensive output will be limited by the absence of its top scorer, while it owns the personnel on defense to limit what Cleveland wants to do most offensively.
Dallas and Portland are primed to produce another “over” together. Three-point shooting and star power will be two common components of this game.
For the above reasons, parlay the Spurs/Cavaliers “under” with the Mavericks/Trail Blazers “over.”
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs/Cavaliers “under” & Mavericks/Trail Blazers “over” 234 at -108 with Heritage
