KeyElement
Pretty much a regular
Spring Training, 2017
With discipline, and not taking these games too seriously, there is no harm in having a little fun with Spring Training Baseball. All we are really trying to do is learn by observation. Ten percent of a player’s standard, regular season wager should not impact his bankroll +/- greatly either way, but does add to our enjoyment of the games and sort of “gets our feet wet” for the upcoming regular season.
Probably the first thing to understand about ST baseball is that Home Field Advantage is totally worthless. These players and teams do not feel at home in any way, shape or form. They are all living out of suitcases and hotels, eating restaurant food, missing their families, and simply working on the skills that will help them later. Everyone is working on getting in shape, fundamental skills, or developing an extra pitch for his arsenal. Results are irrelevant to them as these players and managers are not even performing in front of their true home field crowds. Some of the guys can be very nice about autographs and so forth, especially with the kids, but PR is part of the job and natural personality is also a part of it. The same guys that are nice guys or jerks when working their up through the minors will still be nice guys or jerks after ten years in the major leagues. We live in a world with seven billion inhabitants and there are (drum roll please) seven billion different personalities. Don’t read too much into a smile or a grimace, it may mean nothing in the long run.
Anyway, the reason the home teams are almost always favored is not that the true probability is on their side, but the attitude of bettors is that home field advantage is a big value item. The books have no choice but to favor the home teams if they want to balance their action. Most sports bettors get their feet wet in football, then basketball, and then try to convert their handicapping skills to baseball or hockey, which are as different in betting strategy from foots and buckets as the moon is from the sun.
Home field or court is very significant in college foots and buckets, for a variety of reasons, but much less so in the NFL and NBA, and very, very low in MLB, and that is the regular season, much less ST.
Anyway, the goal in MLB is to win money, not games. Nature of the beast. The best example where newbies or rookies will go wrong on that is at almost every site and public forum. It is the guys that come in every year, at any time, and are looking for a capper with a high (game) winning percentage. They do not relate to the concept that hitting 60% in foots or buckets is great, but irrelevant in baseball, because a favorite lover can hit 60% and lose money, while a dog bettor can hit 40% and make money. When asked about win percentage I always ask the guy, “do you want to win games or money?” The two are not the same in baseball and if he can’t perceive of that there is no further point in talking to him.
For the above stated reasons, I am not going to track either “units” (which no one can define) or a running balance money figure. I am going to declare only W/L and RoR, the most important of all gambling related accounting numbers.
I might have a play yet today, but I think if I am patient the money will go in the wrong direction and increase the profitability, if I am correct about the winner. I will give you a heads up as to the start time though. It is an early Grapefruit League (Florida) game. If you care, be alert, if not; no harm done, it is only ST.
BOL (for the next eight months) :cheers3:
With discipline, and not taking these games too seriously, there is no harm in having a little fun with Spring Training Baseball. All we are really trying to do is learn by observation. Ten percent of a player’s standard, regular season wager should not impact his bankroll +/- greatly either way, but does add to our enjoyment of the games and sort of “gets our feet wet” for the upcoming regular season.
Probably the first thing to understand about ST baseball is that Home Field Advantage is totally worthless. These players and teams do not feel at home in any way, shape or form. They are all living out of suitcases and hotels, eating restaurant food, missing their families, and simply working on the skills that will help them later. Everyone is working on getting in shape, fundamental skills, or developing an extra pitch for his arsenal. Results are irrelevant to them as these players and managers are not even performing in front of their true home field crowds. Some of the guys can be very nice about autographs and so forth, especially with the kids, but PR is part of the job and natural personality is also a part of it. The same guys that are nice guys or jerks when working their up through the minors will still be nice guys or jerks after ten years in the major leagues. We live in a world with seven billion inhabitants and there are (drum roll please) seven billion different personalities. Don’t read too much into a smile or a grimace, it may mean nothing in the long run.
Anyway, the reason the home teams are almost always favored is not that the true probability is on their side, but the attitude of bettors is that home field advantage is a big value item. The books have no choice but to favor the home teams if they want to balance their action. Most sports bettors get their feet wet in football, then basketball, and then try to convert their handicapping skills to baseball or hockey, which are as different in betting strategy from foots and buckets as the moon is from the sun.
Home field or court is very significant in college foots and buckets, for a variety of reasons, but much less so in the NFL and NBA, and very, very low in MLB, and that is the regular season, much less ST.
Anyway, the goal in MLB is to win money, not games. Nature of the beast. The best example where newbies or rookies will go wrong on that is at almost every site and public forum. It is the guys that come in every year, at any time, and are looking for a capper with a high (game) winning percentage. They do not relate to the concept that hitting 60% in foots or buckets is great, but irrelevant in baseball, because a favorite lover can hit 60% and lose money, while a dog bettor can hit 40% and make money. When asked about win percentage I always ask the guy, “do you want to win games or money?” The two are not the same in baseball and if he can’t perceive of that there is no further point in talking to him.
For the above stated reasons, I am not going to track either “units” (which no one can define) or a running balance money figure. I am going to declare only W/L and RoR, the most important of all gambling related accounting numbers.
I might have a play yet today, but I think if I am patient the money will go in the wrong direction and increase the profitability, if I am correct about the winner. I will give you a heads up as to the start time though. It is an early Grapefruit League (Florida) game. If you care, be alert, if not; no harm done, it is only ST.
BOL (for the next eight months) :cheers3:
