sportsnut and killa, a totals inquiry....

[Hawaiiguy]

Milwaukee and Orlando 191

With no Redd and both teams off of 3 days rest, we should see some defense being played.......

these two hardly even break 100 on their own (i think they both did against the defenseless knicks recently)

with bogut and howard providing the shot blocking and no Hill as well.....


does the UNDER look good?

what caution can you provide?

 

[SportsNut]

Is Redd definetly Out?

Patterson is questionable possibly Milw best defender?

Nelson is possible injured...not sure the difference in totals when he is out..as to ay Arroyo at the point

Killa had the last meeting pegged. I am not sure this game is a blowout though with the home team dominanting the series.

My biggest concern is this. Last meeting Orlando at home scored at will. They had 56 at halftime. If the game was competitive they IMO would have had 110-115. They didnt show up in the 2nd H...so was it Orl's D or Milw offense...now Milw just allowed 117 to miami...The lowest output last 10 vs Milw is 96 so do you feel comfortable with that...looking at -1 spread seems the expected score is 96-95...

Orl should crush them on the glass. Really my hidden key to this game is FT shooting. You look at how times both teams get to the line lately and the fact they hover around 70% and a good nite from the line could be the key...

I love the 3 days rest angle for unders cause teams generally are flat. Redd could be flat after a long layoff. Neither team has much data on long rest
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b>3 Days Rest</TD><TD class=datahl2 colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>ORL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>96.0</TD><TD class=datacell>94.3</TD><TD class=datacell>190.3</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MIL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>3-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>110.3</TD><TD class=datacell>100.0</TD><TD class=datacell>210.3</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My move is waiting to see how this line moves to see if it creates any value. I have to think 191 is fair...I could see this 88-85 with the lack of offensive players or I could see it 105-101 thanks to some offense and late FTs.....

 

[Killa]

Here's the major problem I see here.....

This total was 196.5 last week in Orlando. In general, this matchup at Orlando should be a lower total than at Milwaukee, cuz Orlando is a slow-paced, defensive team, and the better team. So you're actually switching to the venue that should produce a higher total, but losing 5.5 points. In general, when a road team is likely to win or come very close to it, you lose some value on the under. A home blowout is the best friend of an under, and there's not much chance of that here. I could see it hitting, like Nut said, but I'm ehhhh on the value here.

 

[SportsNut]

Actually thats a great point that I missed. Excellent point. Better venue for a high scoring game and u lost 5 points....looked at Milw home games and its real hard to see this game at less then 186...to be thats the bare minimum 95-91 type deal....I would be real suprised if this game was played in the 80's now that I looked at it....

 

[Hawaiiguy]

thanks guy, will lay off.........

good info:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Good thread fellas

 

[JPicks]

Hey SN, just a little fyi on Redd for your plays later.

Michael Redd reportedly practiced on Monday, but won't be ready to play on Tuesday.

It sounds like he's still planning to return sometime this week

 

[SportsNut]

Hey SN, just a little fyi on Redd for your plays later.

Michael Redd reportedly practiced on Monday, but won't be ready to play on Tuesday.

It sounds like he's still planning to return sometime this week

Thanks J its appreciated. GL

 

[Killa]

JP, when is your lazy ass gonna start posting plays again?

 

[Hawaiiguy]

Good info nut and killa.......

Woulda been a losing wager had i not consulted you guys.....:cheers:

 

[scourge]

Good info nut and killa.......

Woulda been a losing wager had i not consulted you guys.....:cheers:

thats the truth.

but who in their right mind would have had Ruben Patterson leading the charge by shooting 11-16 and dropping 27 points with 6 bounds and 5 assists?

 

[SportsNut]

Actually Hawaii I have to Thank You. See asking that question and feeling I owed a good response I looked at that up and down. Which at the end lead me to an over play....

I wasnt even sure Patterson would play but I did think they would get alot of FTs...they took 84 BUT they shot worse then expected so in away it was still good cause I only expected like 60 and was hoping for 42 makes and got mid 50's...