SportInsights Interesting Article

[JBsNuggets]

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-15-nba-betting-public-report/

Figured this would be popular with all the system/trend guys on this board. Especially in conjunction with the RLM thread Eri's got going.

 

[CASH]

i am posting the comments as it sums up the article.

<article id="comment-57861" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: 'Open Sans', HelveticaNeue, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 18px; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;"><cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">Matt</cite>
OCTOBER 28, 2014 AT 2:58 PM
</footer>So the final records (328-237 ATS) included both additional filters? Under 200 total points AND conference game?
So in summation, the filters are:
1) road dogs receiving less than 35% ATS
2) total under 200
3) conference game
Is this correct?
Thank you!

Reply →​

</article>

• <article id="comment-57892" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border-width: 0px 4px 0px 0px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1; position: relative; background: url(https://www.sportsinsights.com/wp-content/themes/agility/images/bkgs/stripes_tiny_05.png) 0% 0% repeat transparent;">→
  
  <cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">David Solar</cite>
  OCTOBER 28, 2014 AT 3:09 PM
  </footer>That’s correct. Those results include both regular season and playoff games and improve when looking at dogs of 10+ points.
  
  </article>

• • <article id="comment-61254" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;">
  • • • <article id="comment-57980" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;"><cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">Matt</cite>
        OCTOBER 28, 2014 AT 3:35 PM
        </footer>Sorry, one last question.
        It’s less than 35% and not 35% or less, correct?
        So the exact number of 35% is not in play, correct?
        
        
        Reply →​
        </article>
        • <article id="comment-58008" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border-width: 0px 4px 0px 0px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1; position: relative; background: url(https://www.sportsinsights.com/wp-content/themes/agility/images/bkgs/stripes_tiny_05.png) 0% 0% repeat transparent;">→
          
          <cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">David Solar</cite>
          OCTOBER 28, 2014 AT 3:45 PM
          </footer>Correct. The spread percentage range is between 0 and 34 and does NOT include 35.
          
          
          Reply →​
          </article>
  • <article id="comment-58302" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;">
    
    <cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">Chris</cite>
    OCTOBER 28, 2014 AT 5:25 PM
    </footer>When you say Conference do you mean division or East/West conference? Sorry just want to make sure I’m clear.
    Thanks
    
    
    Reply →​
    </article>
    • <article id="comment-60494" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border-width: 0px 4px 0px 0px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1; position: relative; background: url(https://www.sportsinsights.com/wp-content/themes/agility/images/bkgs/stripes_tiny_05.png) 0% 0% repeat transparent;">→
      
      <cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">David Solar</cite>
      OCTOBER 29, 2014 AT 8:19 AM
      </footer>That means it’s two conference opponents playing each other, so either two Eastern Conference teams or two Western Conference teams.
      
      
      Reply →​
      </article>
  • <article id="comment-61213" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;">
    
    <cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">Matt</cite>
    OCTOBER 29, 2014 AT 1:54 PM
    </footer>Another question I thought of:
    How long do you wait for the percentages, lines, etc to settle in before making the play?
    A total could start at 201 and end up at 199 an hour before game time and then a game that wasn’t a play earlier in the day now becomes one later in the day (if %’s match up as well)
    
    
    Reply →​
    </article>
    • <article id="comment-61254" class="comment" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative;"><footer class="cf comment-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border-width: 0px 4px 0px 0px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1; position: relative; background: url(https://www.sportsinsights.com/wp-content/themes/agility/images/bkgs/stripes_tiny_05.png) 0% 0% repeat transparent;">→
      
      <cite class="fn" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 40px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; float: none; display: block;">David Solar</cite>
      OCTOBER 29, 2014 AT 2:09 PM
      </footer>We utilize closing lines from Pinnacle and our closing public betting percentages for this system. In general, we’d recommend waiting until two hours or less before game time to place your bet. This ensures that we’ve accumulated enough information and that we avoid any dramatic changes to the public betting percentage.
      
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[JBsNuggets]

Yea he explained all of that in the article, so those questions are on the unintelligent side but yea its bet on a:
-Road Dog
-less that 35% public fade
-where the closing total is under 200
-vs a conference opponent

Edit: typo on public fade %

 

[JBsNuggets]

My first time on that site and there are some very interesting articles. Just read another one that posted the following trend:

Bet on a:
-Road Dog
-w/ 3% >30%
-Allowing less than 95 ppg

11/7/14 Update: This system has gone 3-0 ATS (+2.77 units) this season and is now 298-233 (+53.18 units, 10% ROI) overall.

 

[JBsNuggets]

My first time on that site and there are some very interesting articles. Just read another one that posted the following trend:

Bet on a:
-Road Dog
-w/ 3% >30%
-Allowing less than 95 ppg

11/7/14 Update: This system has gone 3-0 ATS (+2.77 units) this season and is now 298-233 (+53.18 units, 10% ROI) overall.

This angle would include OKC tonight (which was also endorsed by our RLM thread), as well as SAS, MIL, MEM, & OKC tomorrow.

 

[CASH]

Yea he explained all of that in the article, so those questions are on the unintelligent side but yea its bet on a:
-Road Dog
-less that 30% public fade
-where the closing total is under 200
-vs a conference opponent

is it 30 or 34%

 

[JBsNuggets]

is it 30 or 34%

He set it at "less than 35%" (which would be 34% or less) to increase the sample size and increase the units won

 

[CASH]

it is certainly an interesting read,,, would need to know those numbers every night at the right time to submit the plays..

 

[JBsNuggets]

it is certainly an interesting read,,, would need to know those numbers every night at the right time to submit the plays..

Agreed, but I would imagine if you coupled this with the great work in the other thread you could do pretty well for yourself. I guess its just about monitoring the lines and pub spread throughout the day

 

[CASH]

the other question is Where do they get these percentages from? Can we validate them?

 

[JBsNuggets]

Betting Against the Public is one of the most popular yet basic sports betting methods used here at Sports Insights. Our longstanding philosophy has been to see which side the public is loading up on by utilizing our public betting trends from seven contributing offshore sportsbooks, and then simply bet the other side.

SportInsights has an iPhone app that publishes the public % data throughout the day. I believe someone explained how they get that information in the initial RLM thread

Unless you're talking about thier winning percentage numbers, I'm not sure. I could validate them if someone knew of a way to access the public split data for each game for the past few years.

 

[CASH]

Ya i read that,,
The only way this works is if sports insights is paying these books for those %...

No - not talking about validating the winning %, validating the data that is coming from the books..

 

[JBsNuggets]

Ya i read that,,
The only way this works is if sports insights is paying these books for those %...

No - not talking about validating the winning %, validating the data that is coming from the books..

Hmmm, I have no idea how to validate that

 

[BJPLAYER]

Ya i read that,,
The only way this works is if sports insights is paying these books for those %...

No - not talking about validating the winning %, validating the data that is coming from the books..

Is % of dollars on either side of game difficult to obtain? i would think so...i look at scoresandodds.com %'s sometimes but always wonder...."are these things accurate"

 

[hugh613]

Ya i read that,,
The only way this works is if sports insights is paying these books for those %...

No - not talking about validating the winning %, validating the data that is coming from the books..

Don't know how you would do that, but most of these % sites seem to have consistent numbers across the board, so they must be somewhat accurate...

 

[CASH]

Hugh,
I agree most do seem to be somewhat accurate, havent read, heard of anyone disputing..

.... i like to validate things when they are coming from "the internet" and "7 off-shorebooks"

 

[Eric8923]

Great thread, I appreciate the link. As a numbers guy, I love shit like this. This is only my 3rd season of sports betting, I use to fade heavy favorites but didn't monitor it like I have the RLM.

There are multiple sites that monitor the bet percentages, my favorite is pregame. Slightly easier to read that scoresandodds at least for me.

I am studying for my exam tomorrow, so I barely skimmed the article. I will look more into probably later on today or tonight. That would be a fun job, complying statistics like this over an extended period of time.