Spek's 2019 CFB

Inspekdah

Inspekdah

My man, Michael Jordan!
Been posting picks on a spoof IG account @digglerpicks and doing pretty well. Will try to post my plays here too and keep the party rolling.

Leans -

Clemson - no team facing a greater transition than GT that I can remember playing an all-time college team.

FIU - Both teams expected to improve but I think FIU has a higher ceiling. Probably a no play though.

A&M - Any info on T St anyone? I suspect Jimbo to start laying some #s like he did at FSU with ease. State looks to return a decent chunk of the team but is transitioning as well.

Utah - looks like the consensus sucker bet of the day but why not? Could be a playoff team.


Army - why not bet a 6PM game and bet the armed forces side?

Wake - I liked the way Wake ended their season. Probably a no bet. Feel like the line is short.

Purdue - I'm a believer in Brohm. I know Nevada will continue to improve. Catching them Week 1, vs. sandwiched at altitude helps.

Colorado - CSU was so bad last year. How can they improve enough here to hang?


Nebraska - Soal is bad. Statement game. Will be on Neb, and exotics with Neb/Over together.

Illinois? Akron after what seemed would turn for the better last few years is sputtering out to a bottom MAC squad.

Toledo / ML ? - See massive regression from a defense that was unreal and an offense that wasn't that good w/ UK.

EMU - I saw a guy I don't know on hardknocks facetime his boyfriend who goes to EMU. Not sure if that's enough to bet it.

Alabama - 1H spread and 1H over. Will bet this every week until it loses twice. Exotics with the 2 as well.

NW +6, ML - Have to play SOME dogs here and there.

VT - looks sharp?

Cuse/Libery - Over 68. Expect this one to sail over.

Boise ML - why not?

Michigan - big. Exotics w/ over.

Virginia - Pitt stinks.

Auburn - SEC over whack anyday.
 
Thanks for sharing some thoughts, Spek...couple reactions as I think the card looks solid...

Bama 1H was a cash cow last year...no chance books don’t inflate those numbers this year...just how much are those 1H’s gonna be juiced? Hard to tell...

Very close to playing Clem 1H...GT coming in with a brand new HC, offensive scheme and defensive scheme...team will get better as the year progresses but you’ve still got lineman recruited for blocking the option for fucks sake...that can’t just magically improve going spread and not see the holes (at least initially).

Mich is a wait and see game for me...new offensive look with multiple QBs....don’t hate the play just more cautious to see how they look first.

Think Auburn the right side as I am not at all a believer in Herbert...think he’s soft, not that smart and overrated TBH. Cristobal in a job above his skill level also IMO.

Kentucky a “who knows” team to me. Heard so many opinions for their record...both much better and much worse than their number I have to pass but spots like this are ripe AF for live betting to me.

Lmfao @ the EMU comment...woke my kid up I laughed so hard reading that the first time.

Best of luck this season, my friend. :cheers3:
 
nice man. my card has a lot of the same plays, im a bit worried about the amount of chalk we like but gotta make the plays we like
 
Get it, Spek. Thanks for sharing. Quick thought on the aTm game - I think Texas State may get 13 - 17 or so on Texas aTm, so I prefer the over - especially with the lookahead to Clemson. Wake and Clemson stood out to me as well. BOL.
 
scarf31 said:
Thanks for sharing some thoughts, Spek...couple reactions as I think the card looks solid...

Bama 1H was a cash cow last year...no chance books don’t inflate those numbers this year...just how much are those 1H’s gonna be juiced? Hard to tell...

Very close to playing Clem 1H...GT coming in with a brand new HC, offensive scheme and defensive scheme...team will get better as the year progresses but you’ve still got lineman recruited for blocking the option for fucks sake...that can’t just magically improve going spread and not see the holes (at least initially).

Mich is a wait and see game for me...new offensive look with multiple QBs....don’t hate the play just more cautious to see how they look first.

Think Auburn the right side as I am not at all a believer in Herbert...think he’s soft, not that smart and overrated TBH. Cristobal in a job above his skill level also IMO.

Kentucky a “who knows” team to me. Heard so many opinions for their record...both much better and much worse than their number I have to pass but spots like this are ripe AF for live betting to me.

Lmfao @ the EMU comment...woke my kid up I laughed so hard reading that the first time.

Best of luck this season, my friend. :cheers3:
Click to expand...


Love the feedback. Much appreciated. I agree the move to the spread for Michigan should be a wait and see. But with that defense and what should be more possessions I think we have an opportunity for more points.
 
Ryno14 said:
Get it, Spek. Thanks for sharing. Quick thought on the aTm game - I think Texas State may get 13 - 17 or so on Texas aTm, so I prefer the over - especially with the lookahead to Clemson. Wake and Clemson stood out to me as well. BOL.
Click to expand...

Was just a lean at this point. If they’re going to get 17 then I think the over is a better play. Thanks.
 
bull said:
My card looks totally different because we have different styles GL to you
Click to expand...

I love your style. And I play a lot of your plays. My leans early in the year are very chalk heavy and squarish. Just need to cut the fat and find the right ones.
 
While it may not roll up exactly to my bankroll I’ll post plays on a 1-3* scale. 1* unless otherwise noted.
 
A lot has been made that Tx St coach, Jake Spavital , is familiar with A&M.
Spaz was during the Sumlin era and Marone finished the last year or two, so he is impervious to what the Ags are now.
On the other hand, the Ags know that the dump off pass is his go to 99% of the time.
ags -20.5 first half for me.
 
Thanks for that one press.

3-1 +2.9

Clemson didn’t even try and ran away. Literally. Feel like UCLA was right side but they just shot themselves in the foot 3 or 4 times. Like to see the big chalk coming through early on.
 
3-1 +2.9

Tonight eyeing:

Rutgers - UMass will be very, very bad this year. Think the SUNJ improve.

MSU - maybe? Don't like the %s I'm seeing and static line movement.

Wake - love this play. Massive turnover for Utah St and Wake is a surging program.

Purdue - I'm going to trust Frohm here with a more veteran defense and an offense that still has weapons. Not worried about altitude with no short travel issues.

Colorado - can't understand why anyone would back CSU here?

Tomorrow:

NEB, SCAR, BAMA 1H/OVER, V TECH, SMU, LSU, AUB, MICHIGAN all on the radar.
 
RUTGERS 2H -7 1*

They should be able to control ball and run up the score vs a team that struggled to pass and was gifted 3 4th down conversions.
 
5-3 +0.4

Lost the 3 and 2 star. Wake with the worst short yardage play calling I’ve ever seen... delayed zone reads on less than a yard I believe in 4 occasions, twice inside the 5 going in.

Purdue just died in the altitude. Being outscored 27-7 in a game they were dominating. Essentially ruining any hope of a magical season with an awful early season loss.

UMass is very very bad and stole 21 points early. They could have lost this game 52-0 if they played again.
 
NEBRASKA -22.5 1H 2*
NEBRASKA -35 3*

OVER FAU/tOSU 66 3*

INDIANA -18 1*

REMOVED OLE MISS
 
Last edited:
6-6 -3.2

Nebraska's effort and the overall shit quality I was witnessing across all games was discouraging. Didn't post more but was on the wrong side of more than a few. Got lucky late with Auburn. But posted .500 down a few units.

Sooners 1H -12 2*
Sooners -23 2*
 
6-8 -7.6

Disaster. All went downhill with Purdue shaving that game away. At least they lost and their season is essentially toast. Bums. Week 2 THOTS soon.
 
Maryland I know the Cuse starter has been the future in waiting for awhile but I saw nothing out of him last year and last week wasn't much better.

VT 1H, Game They should have won, possibly going away, last week. A few short moments of that game really affected the scoreboard more than the other 45-50 minutes. Need to look into OD a little more but I expect a VT defense to be lights out. BC had some big pass plays early but the intermediate game was complete shut down last year.

Michigan I don't see how with a bye week coming up vs. a one-dimensional team that the defense doesn't dominate here. Army started slow last year and Michigan should cover by 4+ TDs.

Clemson

Nebraska Ugh. These guys. Big overreaction though. Should what should have happened last week actually happened this line could be 7.

Illinois Bet against UConn every week and you can't lose.

UCLA Back to the ...

SMU

FAU

LAL

Florida 1H

Auburn

LSU BIG

STAN/USC Under
 
CLEMSON -15.5 3*

NEBRASKA -4 1*
NEBRASKA ML -175 1*

ILLINOIS -21 1*

ALABAMA 1H -35.5 3*
ALABAMA OVER 1H 38 3*
 
7-11 -11.1

The bad beats have been replaced with some non posted luck. Florida -7 last week & Tulane ML and -4 a couple of nights ago.

Leans:

Michigan State - need 7
Michigan - need 3.5
Coastal - always fade UMass but sketchy about this spot
Troy
Washington - BIG
Tulsa - love the sitiuation
FSU
Missouri
Virginia 1H - don't touch this full game
Texas - line too short on the open though - likely pass
UGA - want flat 14 or less - BIG
Toledo to close the night
 
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