Two Large Play's:
Michigan State -7
Michigan State ML/Saints ML/Clemson ML (-111)
MSU/Nebraska comes down to two things; Line play and Tommy Armstrong vs Connor Cook.
The offensive line for both team's are going to have issues. Pass rush for both teams should be prevalent, but both teams should be able to run the ball successfully. Abdullah a big concern here, but Cross is damn good himself and doesn't get enough credit. However, Tommy Armstrong will not beat the Michigan State defense.
Armstrong throws a good deep ball, but I'm not sure he will have too many opportunities. MSU is going to blitz him like hell at every opportunity, and its going to be up to him to hit the check down and intermediary routes. Last year, MSU won at Nebraska due to 5 turnovers and a defense that couldn't really stop the MSU offense. Cook should have an absolute field day against the Cornhuskers. 5 turnovers won't happen again, but you'd be crazy to think MSU didn't have the advantage in turnover margin this Saturday night. Huge home, night game for a questionable passer against the best QB in the B1G with a runningback in Jeremy Langford who just doesn't put the ball on the ground. Also good to note MSU has forced I believe 8 fumbles this year, and have recovered all 8 of them. Obviously some luck playing into that as well as weak competition, but let's face it: no one has played much of any competition thus far.
I've bet against the Spartans (Backed Jacksonville St week 1) and laid off them when I strongly considered them week 2 (against Oregon), but now is not the time to do so. This is the best offense out of MSU in the Dantonio era that is accompanied by an upper-echelon defense. The D is no longer one of the top few in the country, but its still up there in the top 15/20.
Remember: Michigan State won every B1G game by double digits last season, and that includes at Nebraska. At 7 points, it's too hard for me to pass up this team. I think MSU runs into some problems at Indiana and at Maryland, but at home, this team should cruise all year. Putting my large play MSU record of 3-0 on the line with the -7 play, and a ML piece on them
