Spanish La Liga - Sun, 17 June

[The Z Machine]

Here are the current lines for games that have some impact on La Liga (championship, UEFA, or relegation) (from Pinny):

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Celta de Vigo </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1 and -1.5 +109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 -120 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Getafe </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1 and +1.5 -119 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 +110 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Racing Santander </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +0.5 -111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 -114 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Real Betis </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -0.5 +103 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 +104 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Valencia</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> pk and -0.5 +100 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 -132 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Real Sociedad</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> pk and +0.5 -108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 +122 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Athletic Club Bilbao</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 and 3 -117 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Levante </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 and 3 +107 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Gimnastic</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +2 -131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 3 -137 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">FC Barcelona</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -2 +121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 3 +127 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Osasuna</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> pk and +0.5 +100 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 -111 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atletico Madrid</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> pk and -0.5 -108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 +101 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">FC Sevilla</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -0.5 +103 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 -134 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Villarreal</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +0.5 -111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 +124 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Real Madrid</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -2 +111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 3 and 3.5 -105 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Mallorca</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +2 -121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 3 and 3.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Recreativo</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> pk and +0.5 -112 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 2.5 and 3 -121 </td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Real Zaragoza </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> pk and -0.5 +104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 2.5 and 3 +111 </td></tr></tbody></table>
I will break down the games one by one in each category.

 

[The Z Machine]

Relegation Games:

Getafe at Celta - Celta is currently in relegation and a draw probably won't get them out of there. They need a win, big time. Getafe is a mid-level team who has been up and down. I think they are an OK team, but not great. Getafe isn't great on the road this year, losing 10 although Celta isn't much better, losing 9 at home. I just don't see Celta putting up a 2 goal win (not a single one ALL SEASON) if Getafe is focussed, although Getafe is likely looking ahead to the King's Cup Final.

My play: Getafe +1.5 for poor odds.

Betis at Racing - Betis has been a rollercoaster all year, varying from terrible to decent. Right now, they have been more terrible than decent. Yet, they are fighting for their veritable lives sitting 1 point from relegation. Racing is a mid-level team with not much to play for except protecting their home turf and forcing another team to be relegated. Racing hasn't been hot lately, but they haven't been terrible (sans a loss to Mallorca). I don't like going with a road dog with a worse record and that is ice cold.

My play: Racing Santander +0.5 -111 and maybe $$ on the draw

Real Sociedad at Valencia - Valencia has NOTHING to play for except home pride. Real Sociedad is pretty much DOA, but they do have a shot of not being relegated if other teams fall (which is quite possible IMO). This game is hard to cap. It pits a good team versus a crappy team and I just don't know how to call it. I think I'm gonna stay away but if I had to guess, I think that Valencia wins or draws. They are too good even if they don't take the game that seriously and won't want to end a good season in front of their fans with a loss.

Levante at Athletic Bilbao - Levante is safe from relegation. Bilbao could go down a division for the first time in history if they lose. I think they put this game away easily and come out with a 2 goal win (2-0). Everything is on their side IMO.

My play: Bilbao -1.5

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Bit exotic for my tastes, but the BOL with your plays, Z:cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL with the plays, Z :cheers:

 

[hile75]

nice writeups, gl and welcome to CTG

 

[The Z Machine]

I live in Madrid, so this is pretty intense here. I have MUCH better access to La Liga info than to MLB info. I can watch the game live here and read about player status in the newspapers. It fills the hole that NFL leaves for me.

 

[The Z Machine]

UEFA / Champion's League Implication Games:

Atlético at Osasuna - Atleti is desperate... they have been within the grasp of UEFA all season, and now they have squandered their adavantages over the last 4 weeks with straight losses to both bad (Celta) and good (Barça) teams. I don't think they'll bounce back with a win here... I'm leaning draw more than anything else because they can't score much (even with Maxi Rodríguez back and Torres supposedly at full health) and have been so crappy.

My play: Osasuna +0.5 and U2.5

Real Zaragoza at Recreativo - Recre has basically nothing to play for here, since they can't move up and won't be relegated. It comes down to winning on home turf. Honestly I've never been very imporessed by them, and I think Zaragoza is a class above Recre, which can clinch a UEFA Cup bid with a win. They tend to beat or draw against inferior teams, so that's where I'm heading.

My play: Zaragoza pk and -0.5

I'll analyze the Sevilla - Villarreal tie in the next section.

 

[SteveMoneydog]

i will just relax and enjoy the last day of la liga.
i have two futures pending: van nistelroy to become this seasons topscorer and real madrid to win it all. i played both 5 or 6 weeks ago.

i'm now in a comfortable position and hedged my madrid future by taking barca to become champions at +544.


BOL for your plays, z machine!
i tend to place some small units on santander +0.5

 

[redbearde]

Excellent thread, sir!

 

[The Z Machine]

La Liga Championship Implication Games:

Barça at Nástic - This is a sever mismatch. Nástic is the worst team in the league by a bit, and Barça is one of the top 2 and a sure favorite. On top of that, Nástic has NOTHING to play for and will get relegated. They've lost 10 games at home and them losing is pretty much a forgone conclusion as there's no way that they'll be in this game. The only question remains is if Barça will settle for a 1 or 2 goal win. I think they'll settle for 2, but not for 1. Going to play this one safe for profit making.

My play: Barcelona -1.5 for some crappy odds

Villarreal at Sevilla - Uf, this is a big one. Both teams need a win (although i think Villarreal would be content with a draw because it will likely get them through to UEFA). However, I don't see that happening. Sevilla has squandered every opportunity to win La Liga this year IMO, but they always seem to play well from 3rd or 4th place, and I see this as no exception. They haven't lost to an inferior opponent in 11 Liga matches (Valencia was the last one, who isn't bad at all). The crowd will be going gonzo down there for Sevilla (all three championship games are on at the same time). I don't see them even getting a draw here. I'll have to look a bit more into player matchups and health issues to really get behind my thoughts here. But for right now,

My play: Sevilla -0.5

Mallorca at Real Madrid - Real has everythign to play for here. From players playing their last game in white (Becks et. al.) to a shot at the title if they win, to playing at home, not not winning La Liga in years, to coming back from the depths of mediocrity this year, to the stadium and city being prepared for huge celebration... everything points to a Real win. The question is by how much? Mallorca isn't a bad team. They just drew with Sevilla in Mallorca, and have only had 1 3 goal loss all year (Dec). They are by no means a good team, especially on the road. They will lose unless Real shoots itself in the head (could happen), but I'm not sure about a 3 goal loss here. They probably lose 3-1, or 2-0. I might look to put money directly on those scores if I can. Otherwise I'll go:

My play: Mallorca +2.0 since the odds are there

 

[The Z Machine]

i will just relax and enjoy the last day of la liga.
i have two futures pending: van nistelroy to become this seasons topscorer and real madrid to win it all. i played both 5 or 6 weeks ago.

i'm now in a comfortable position and hedged my madrid future by taking barca to become champions at +544.


BOL for your plays, z machine!
i tend to place some small units on santander +0.5

Nice job with those futures plays. I'm impressed you had that foresight, when things were pointing towards Barça. RVD is an impressive goal scorer. I wish I had played it when you did.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

i agree with Mallorca play. All Madrid have to do is win by 1 goal, great they play at home but i think -2 is too much.

Thank you for the write ups, great to have someone with direct access to the matches.

 

[SteveMoneydog]

Nice job with those futures plays. I'm impressed you had that foresight, when things were pointing towards Barça. RVD is an impressive goal scorer. I wish I had played it when you did.

i played it when rvn was one goal in front. i just thought that he's a better striker than militio, kanoute and ronaldinho. i got it at -139.

to be honest it wasn't really foresight when i took madrid to win the title. i just thought that the odds were way to high when real was only one point behind barca and barca seemed to struggle more and more at that point.

 

[Fondybadger]

:cheers:

 

[SteveMoneydog]

i just can't resist...

everyone ist telling me that mallorca will have huge motivation and fight like hell against madrid. madrid has the exact same amount of motivation today fighting to become champions today in my opinion.

mallorca hasn't scored a goal in their last 3 matches and real has scored at least 2 goals in every of their last 7 matches. they even scored 3 or 4 goals in 5 games during that stretch. madrid has a 9-1-1 record in their last 11 games.

i will try madrid -1.75, +105, expekt, .5 unit

 

[The Z Machine]

Good play SMG, I pushed with my Mallora +2. That last goal obviously pissed me off, but Real was the better team by far yesterday and deserved to win. Mallorca was up 1-0 for over 60 mins. At least the game was exciting and I didn't lose my shirt.

Recap:

Getafe +1.5 - WIN
Racing Santander +0.5 - LOSS
Bilbao -1.5 - WIN
Osasuna +0.5 and U2.5 - LOSS, LOSS
Zaragoza pk and -0.5 - 1/2 LOSS
Barcelona -1.5 - WIN (I put it in at -2, because I couldn't get -1.5)
Sevilla -0.5 - LOSS
Mallorca +2.0 - PUSH

Overall: 3 WINS, 3.5 LOSSES, 1.5 PUSH

Not a great day by any stretch.

 

[SteveMoneydog]

i have to admit that i was very lucky in the end with my play.
real was the better team in the second half but i never thought they could still score 3 goals.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

ugh the last big league has finished, now this is a usually hesitant spot, you can either really make a killer with the Scandinavian leagues or get dragged down. Looking forward to your reviews in La Liga for 2007/08

 

[The Z Machine]

Time for me to start getting up to speed on the MLS.

Sucks that I can't actually watch the games, because, they're as good as the EPL now over there, don't cha know.

There will be a bunch of movement for both Real and Barça in this offseason. Look for Real to go after a top level offensive minded midfielder, as well as selling off a holding midfielder (Emerson?).